Commie states, change of the guard
Quite a lot of changes are expected to happen in 2011 in some of the major countries in the *cough* Axis-of-Evil *cough* Soshulist camp. Well, I'll actually start with a not-so-commie but still quite soshulist state, Brazil. On January 1st, Dilma Rousseff took the golden-green ribbon from her mentor Lula da Silva and she became the next head of state of Brazil. Not a major change of course for one of the fastest developing countries in the world at present (we're talking emerging economies, right?) (Strange, a soshulist country "emerges", how come? Isn't soshulism supposed to destroy countries? But I digress.) But forget Brazil for now. I'd rather focus on some other interesting countries, one with a market that has already "emerged" quite a bit, and two others which are still far from it.
North Korea is bracing for the reign of Kim III, while China awaits for its current vice-president to make just one more step higher up the hierarchy. And meanwhile in Cuba, Fidel Castro has finally resigned (for real!), giving all ruling functions as a leader of the communist party to his brother Raul. And while in Dilma's case she'll be eager to follow the steps of her extremely successful predecessor (she promised she'll be knocking at his door pretty often in the future), the situation with the other "heir-apparents" which are to be appointed rather than elected, still remains unclear.
Probably the most interesting of them all is the upcoming dynastic transferring of power in the secretive and isolated North Korea, where a third generation of Kim-s is taking over. With such a famous dad and such a legendary grandpa, the young Kim Chong Un will soon feel the burden of the huge expectations. The media already are spreading images of the chubby future leader who used to be a mysterious figure until very recently. Very little is known about him. In September, on a special conference in Pyongyang which was called the most significant event in North Korea for the last 30 years, the third and youngest son of Kim Chong Il was promoted into General, which paved the way to him claiming his heritage.
All that's known about Kim III is that he was probably born somewhere between 1983-84, he studied in Switzerland, he's fluent in English and German, and that's about it. It seems the DPRK propaganda machine has started moving already, spreading new songs and poems about the future Dear Leader. Rumors say he even underwent some plastic surgery to make him look more like his legendary grandpa.
It's now believed that the old Kim II had suffered a heart stroke in 2008. But he didn't relinquish his position yet, because his son was still too young and inexperienced to take over. But his promotion into General clearly means that the current Dear Leader is preparing for his end. And of course this ain't just some irrelevant gossip, it's something that matters, in the light of DPRK's recent escalation of the tensions with ROK. And DPRK has a 1.2 million army, and soon maybe nukes too.
Of course Kim Chong Un is still too young to exercise any coherent influence on the country's two main institutions, the party and the military. And he sure as hell is going to need their support. When Kim Chong Il became leader, it took him a lot of time initially to win them on his side. That's why the youngster is unlikely to succeed without the support of a group of important people around his father. The husband of Kim II's sister would most likely serve as a kind of a regent in the first years. He has taken the second most important position in the country, a chief of the National defense committee.
Meanwhile, South Korean media have hinted that Kim Chong Un had plotted for the asssassination of his eldest brother Kim Chong Nam without his father's knowledge. Although the elder brother claims he doesn't hold any government aspirations (and he lives in China now), he has openly criticized the policy of power transferring from father to son.
We're now witnessing a transition period which will be very volatile. The only way to learn the outcome is to wait for Kim II's death. The young Kim is already touring the country and purging the ranks of the top military, to cook a more hospitable environment for himself for when he'll become the leader.
Now, China's choice seems to be pre-decided, as it has always been. The world's second largest economy is also at the threshold of an important change of government. The current president Hu Jintao has already hinted that his successor will be Xi Jinping. He's got to take all three top positions - general secretary of the CCP, head of state, and chief of military. It's supposed to happen between 2012-13, when Hu Jintao will resign. Xi Jinping's recent promotion to a vice chairman of the Central military committee which is the top military governing body, seems to have cemented his position (Hu Jintao himself is heading that committee).
Promoting Xi Jinping to that key position is just the next of a stream of appointments that follow a well established pattern which Hu Jintao himself had followed on his way to the presidential chair. It's a common practice. So, unless he makes some blatant error, there's almost nothing that could divert Xi Jinping from becoming the heir. Challenging his position at this point would mean challenging not a single person but the legitimacy of the entire system which has (se)lected him.
And by the way there's nothing incidental in the choice of the next Dear Leader. The procedure which follows this established scheme is so predictable and stable in order to avoid unnecessary power struggle within the party. In principle, Hu Jintao would've preferred to appoint Li Keqiang (current vice-premier) as his successor, but it's now certain that he'll take post #2 in the country - that of prime minister Wen Jiabao. The tandem will be Xi Jinping - Li Keqiang, not the other way around (never mind the perverted scheme between Putin and Medvedev in Russia).
But the question now is not if Xi Jinping would become the next president, but how exactly he'll be ruling once he achieves that. He won't be able to make radical reforms even if he wanted, because he'll be working with a pre-decided team and he'll have to create a consensus environment between a myriad of groups. And there are no indications that he's inclined to do drastic reform. But of course we won't know that for sure until he takes power officially.
Xi Jinping is one of the "party royalty", i.e. a son of a high ranking party apparatchik in the CCP. Therefore his presence in the high political circles is considered by right and pre-destined. But this doesn't mean that his youth years went under the mark of privilege. Like many other veterans in the 60s, his father was at the receiving end of a Maoist purge during the Culture Revolution. Because of his father's "sins", Xi Jinping had to live 7 hard years working at a farm in the deep countryside. Later he returned to Beijing to study in the most elite Chinese universities, and there he started his ascent up the ladder. He's no newcomer, no comet dashing through the scene just like that - everything in Chinese politics is done in a very predictable and traceable way. It tends to create a sense of stability in the populace. And things are usually thought out in a very long-term perspective and in extremely large scales. That's a necessity, due to the sheer size of the country.
So Xi Jinping is going to take over at a crucial time for his country, and the tasks in front of him are nothing short of grandiose. His importance was indicated by the fact that he was put in charge of organizing the 2008 Olympics, and of last year's celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the Revolution. He is married to a famous songstress of patriotic hymns (lol), but she later quit her career as her husband climbed up the ladder, as the custom in China is that the wives of the party's notables should remain in the shades.
How exactly he'll rule remains a mystery. It's very difficult to predict the policies of any future leader of China, because in China by protocol the heir-apparent shouldn't be too visible and shouldn't have a celebrity status while the current president is still in power (in order not to overshadow him). He could be a total surprise, or he might not be. No one knows. But it should be noted that the future leader, whoever it may be, would always have to consider a number of limitations and factors. So he won't be able to entirely change the course of the country, and besides if something's working fine, you don't tend to touch it and change it too much, and one couldn't say China is going down the gutter at the moment, can you? Nowadays no single leader in China could act as they please like in the muddy foggy times of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. The leadership is much more "collective" in the Politburo and no one has the absolute power. It's all very institutionalized.
Ruling by the principle of consensus means that it doesn't matter too much who'll head the country. The central committee of the CCP has already approved the framework for the so-called five-year plan which China will be following from now until 2015. It includes several main goals - spreading the goods more evenly (oh noes!), an emphasis on social security, and faster development of the lagging peripheral regions, in order to avoid social imbalances. The plan has been meticulously laid out. So the future president already has the guidelines clearly drawn before him, and he'll just have to implement the plan without too much space for manouvring.
Xi Jinping has earned a reputation of a pragmatist, with an inclination to economic development and foreign investments, so that should sound good for them greedy ebil foreign korporashuns who swim in pools of gold coins at night. He's said to be an effective unifier and a staunch enemy of corruption. Those who've met him personally say he's "refined, genuinely interested in what he's being told, and generally polite". He also "smiles quite often on public occasions" and "there's frequently some gaiety in his gaze" (but that's just The Guardian, duh). Still, that didn't stop him from saying in 2009 that "sleek foreigners who have no other business, often like to point fingers at China". Although he's considered to be supportive of economic reform and liberalization of the market, he has shown no indications that he's planning to loosen the grip of the regime.
In China's little commie brother, up there right under America's nose, Cuba, the winds of change are already felt very clearly. And it'll not be political, as much as economic change.
Now assigned with all of his brother's functions due to Fidel's frailness, the new-old president Raul Castro intends to make a reform in 2011 which would lay off nearly 1 million state employees. Most of them have occupied those positions for decades, and the world of private enterprise is totally alien to them. So the whole process won't go without turmoil, that's for sure. The question is whether the country really intends to re-orient itself toward the "state capitalism" now practiced in China, or the ruling communist party would finally make way to the young generation of successors in the post-Castro era.
Cross-posted to talk_politics .
North Korea is bracing for the reign of Kim III, while China awaits for its current vice-president to make just one more step higher up the hierarchy. And meanwhile in Cuba, Fidel Castro has finally resigned (for real!), giving all ruling functions as a leader of the communist party to his brother Raul. And while in Dilma's case she'll be eager to follow the steps of her extremely successful predecessor (she promised she'll be knocking at his door pretty often in the future), the situation with the other "heir-apparents" which are to be appointed rather than elected, still remains unclear.
Probably the most interesting of them all is the upcoming dynastic transferring of power in the secretive and isolated North Korea, where a third generation of Kim-s is taking over. With such a famous dad and such a legendary grandpa, the young Kim Chong Un will soon feel the burden of the huge expectations. The media already are spreading images of the chubby future leader who used to be a mysterious figure until very recently. Very little is known about him. In September, on a special conference in Pyongyang which was called the most significant event in North Korea for the last 30 years, the third and youngest son of Kim Chong Il was promoted into General, which paved the way to him claiming his heritage.
All that's known about Kim III is that he was probably born somewhere between 1983-84, he studied in Switzerland, he's fluent in English and German, and that's about it. It seems the DPRK propaganda machine has started moving already, spreading new songs and poems about the future Dear Leader. Rumors say he even underwent some plastic surgery to make him look more like his legendary grandpa.
It's now believed that the old Kim II had suffered a heart stroke in 2008. But he didn't relinquish his position yet, because his son was still too young and inexperienced to take over. But his promotion into General clearly means that the current Dear Leader is preparing for his end. And of course this ain't just some irrelevant gossip, it's something that matters, in the light of DPRK's recent escalation of the tensions with ROK. And DPRK has a 1.2 million army, and soon maybe nukes too.
Of course Kim Chong Un is still too young to exercise any coherent influence on the country's two main institutions, the party and the military. And he sure as hell is going to need their support. When Kim Chong Il became leader, it took him a lot of time initially to win them on his side. That's why the youngster is unlikely to succeed without the support of a group of important people around his father. The husband of Kim II's sister would most likely serve as a kind of a regent in the first years. He has taken the second most important position in the country, a chief of the National defense committee.
Meanwhile, South Korean media have hinted that Kim Chong Un had plotted for the asssassination of his eldest brother Kim Chong Nam without his father's knowledge. Although the elder brother claims he doesn't hold any government aspirations (and he lives in China now), he has openly criticized the policy of power transferring from father to son.
We're now witnessing a transition period which will be very volatile. The only way to learn the outcome is to wait for Kim II's death. The young Kim is already touring the country and purging the ranks of the top military, to cook a more hospitable environment for himself for when he'll become the leader.
Now, China's choice seems to be pre-decided, as it has always been. The world's second largest economy is also at the threshold of an important change of government. The current president Hu Jintao has already hinted that his successor will be Xi Jinping. He's got to take all three top positions - general secretary of the CCP, head of state, and chief of military. It's supposed to happen between 2012-13, when Hu Jintao will resign. Xi Jinping's recent promotion to a vice chairman of the Central military committee which is the top military governing body, seems to have cemented his position (Hu Jintao himself is heading that committee).
Promoting Xi Jinping to that key position is just the next of a stream of appointments that follow a well established pattern which Hu Jintao himself had followed on his way to the presidential chair. It's a common practice. So, unless he makes some blatant error, there's almost nothing that could divert Xi Jinping from becoming the heir. Challenging his position at this point would mean challenging not a single person but the legitimacy of the entire system which has (se)lected him.
And by the way there's nothing incidental in the choice of the next Dear Leader. The procedure which follows this established scheme is so predictable and stable in order to avoid unnecessary power struggle within the party. In principle, Hu Jintao would've preferred to appoint Li Keqiang (current vice-premier) as his successor, but it's now certain that he'll take post #2 in the country - that of prime minister Wen Jiabao. The tandem will be Xi Jinping - Li Keqiang, not the other way around (never mind the perverted scheme between Putin and Medvedev in Russia).
But the question now is not if Xi Jinping would become the next president, but how exactly he'll be ruling once he achieves that. He won't be able to make radical reforms even if he wanted, because he'll be working with a pre-decided team and he'll have to create a consensus environment between a myriad of groups. And there are no indications that he's inclined to do drastic reform. But of course we won't know that for sure until he takes power officially.
Xi Jinping is one of the "party royalty", i.e. a son of a high ranking party apparatchik in the CCP. Therefore his presence in the high political circles is considered by right and pre-destined. But this doesn't mean that his youth years went under the mark of privilege. Like many other veterans in the 60s, his father was at the receiving end of a Maoist purge during the Culture Revolution. Because of his father's "sins", Xi Jinping had to live 7 hard years working at a farm in the deep countryside. Later he returned to Beijing to study in the most elite Chinese universities, and there he started his ascent up the ladder. He's no newcomer, no comet dashing through the scene just like that - everything in Chinese politics is done in a very predictable and traceable way. It tends to create a sense of stability in the populace. And things are usually thought out in a very long-term perspective and in extremely large scales. That's a necessity, due to the sheer size of the country.
So Xi Jinping is going to take over at a crucial time for his country, and the tasks in front of him are nothing short of grandiose. His importance was indicated by the fact that he was put in charge of organizing the 2008 Olympics, and of last year's celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the Revolution. He is married to a famous songstress of patriotic hymns (lol), but she later quit her career as her husband climbed up the ladder, as the custom in China is that the wives of the party's notables should remain in the shades.
How exactly he'll rule remains a mystery. It's very difficult to predict the policies of any future leader of China, because in China by protocol the heir-apparent shouldn't be too visible and shouldn't have a celebrity status while the current president is still in power (in order not to overshadow him). He could be a total surprise, or he might not be. No one knows. But it should be noted that the future leader, whoever it may be, would always have to consider a number of limitations and factors. So he won't be able to entirely change the course of the country, and besides if something's working fine, you don't tend to touch it and change it too much, and one couldn't say China is going down the gutter at the moment, can you? Nowadays no single leader in China could act as they please like in the muddy foggy times of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. The leadership is much more "collective" in the Politburo and no one has the absolute power. It's all very institutionalized.
Ruling by the principle of consensus means that it doesn't matter too much who'll head the country. The central committee of the CCP has already approved the framework for the so-called five-year plan which China will be following from now until 2015. It includes several main goals - spreading the goods more evenly (oh noes!), an emphasis on social security, and faster development of the lagging peripheral regions, in order to avoid social imbalances. The plan has been meticulously laid out. So the future president already has the guidelines clearly drawn before him, and he'll just have to implement the plan without too much space for manouvring.
Xi Jinping has earned a reputation of a pragmatist, with an inclination to economic development and foreign investments, so that should sound good for them greedy ebil foreign korporashuns who swim in pools of gold coins at night. He's said to be an effective unifier and a staunch enemy of corruption. Those who've met him personally say he's "refined, genuinely interested in what he's being told, and generally polite". He also "smiles quite often on public occasions" and "there's frequently some gaiety in his gaze" (but that's just The Guardian, duh). Still, that didn't stop him from saying in 2009 that "sleek foreigners who have no other business, often like to point fingers at China". Although he's considered to be supportive of economic reform and liberalization of the market, he has shown no indications that he's planning to loosen the grip of the regime.
In China's little commie brother, up there right under America's nose, Cuba, the winds of change are already felt very clearly. And it'll not be political, as much as economic change.
Now assigned with all of his brother's functions due to Fidel's frailness, the new-old president Raul Castro intends to make a reform in 2011 which would lay off nearly 1 million state employees. Most of them have occupied those positions for decades, and the world of private enterprise is totally alien to them. So the whole process won't go without turmoil, that's for sure. The question is whether the country really intends to re-orient itself toward the "state capitalism" now practiced in China, or the ruling communist party would finally make way to the young generation of successors in the post-Castro era.
Cross-posted to talk_politics .