Ковидлые перспективы для Англии , а на самом деле для всех
Covid. Exploring the dynamics of the third wave. The juxtaposition in the UK of growing new infections alongside high vaccination rates suggests 1) the reproduction number for the Delta variant is higher than assumed 2) vaccine efficacy against transmission is lower than assumed. Our UK macro team, detail here consider what a higher basic reproduction number and a lower vaccine efficacy against transmission mean for the peak and duration of the third wave of infection. Essentially, the peak is likely to be much higher than the first two waves and may involve almost everyone in the population needing to acquire immunity, whether by vaccination or by infection and recovery. This suggests that the third infection wave will not only have a higher peak, but will also be much longer than the first two infection waves. If we optimistically assume that 75% of the total population will be vaccinated, then around 17m people would need to acquire immunity through infection and recovery. If we assume that 2.5m people have already acquired immunity through infection and recovery, and that new infections average 100,000 a day, the peak in the third wave will be 145 days away. This suggests that the time to the peak of the third wave will be considerably longer than the 45 days to the peak in the first wave and the 36 days to the peak in the second wave. If infected, fully vaccinated individuals are much less likely to become seriously ill, be hospitalized or die, meaning if the hospitalization rate remains at the current level of 2.5%, and the case fatality rate remains at the current level of 0.2%, then 14.5m new infections would lead to 362,500 hospitalizations and 29,000 deaths.