Пара очень важных мыслей от Бранко Милановича
Вкратце
- Да, мировое неравенство падает, в основном за счёт бурного роста Китая и Индии, но это автоматически означает, что некоторые китайци и индусы (для примера) совершенно неожиданно оказываются в топ-10% и топ-1% в мире по доходам, и ОДНОВРЕМЕННО, что ряд слоев на западе в относительном выражении падают вниз при том, что их абсолютный уровень доходов растёт
- Такое положение дел объективно хорошо, но с национальной точки зрения может трактоваться как недопустимое, см. пример из самого Адама Смита
You recently published a piece in Foreign Affairs about the great convergence. What do you mean by this great convergence?
Okay, well, that's a more straightforward question since it is based on empirical data! In the past few decades, primarily due to China's economic growth but also due to the progress of other countries, global income levels have risen significantly. China, for instance, achieved an annual per capita growth rate of around 8.5% over a span of 40 years. This growth, coupled with the economic progress in Asia and other countries with large populations, had two noteworthy effects.
Firstly, it resulted in a substantial decline in global inequality, marking a significant departure from the trends of the past two centuries. This outcome is rather evident if we consider a hypothetical example, using a country like France. In such a scenario, if relatively poorer individuals experienced a 10% income growth while relatively wealthier individuals saw a 2% growth, it would naturally lead to a reduction in inequality. The same is true globally. However, it's worth noting that despite this decline, China itself witnessed a rise in internal inequality, which was also observed in countries like the US, India, Russia, and the UK. Hence, the national increases served as a counterbalance, albeit not strong enough to outweigh the overall global inequality decrease due to high growth rates in Asia.
The second effect of this decline in global inequality was the reshuffling of positions among individuals. In other words, people from countries such as China or India suddenly found themselves becoming part of the top 10% globally, while middle or lower-middle classes from rich countries were pushed lower in the global pecking order. This shift in relative positions can lead to various political and socio-economic implications, particularly for those in the middle class in wealthier countries. Some individuals in Western affluent nations may experience a decline in their relative global standing, even if their real incomes continue to increase by 1% or 2% annually. These are two distinct but interconnected aspects stemming from the same underlying reasons.
To conclude, it's important to recognize that when people hear about a decline in global inequality, they often express support for such a trend. However, it becomes more challenging when they realize that it also implies a decline in the global rankings of the middle class in the United States, France, or the UK. Even if their actual incomes continue to rise, this aspect can be politically sensitive. Nonetheless, it's crucial to understand that these two facets cannot be separated from each other.
How do we manage to deal politically with such a paradox ?
I believe that politically, this is a complex issue. It's crucial to be cautious with language and emphasize that when we talk about a decline, it's a relative decline. In other words, it means that one's position is decreasing compared to others, even if one's real purchasing power is still improving, But of course at a slower rate than that of others. And eventually they will be overtaken. However, some argue that it doesn't matter because people measure themselves against their immediate surroundings, their friends, and acquaintances. While this may be true, there are certain globally priced goods that middle-class individuals in Western countries may find increasingly challenging to afford and acquire. For example, attending events like the World Cup in Qatar or vacations in Asia, which can be incredibly expensive. These changes can impact the middle class and its ability to access certain experiences.
I understand your political question, and it is indeed not easy to explain or disregard the concerns of Western middle classes. Striking a balance between, on the one hand, advocating for the reduction of global income inequality and lesser global inequality of opportunity, and on the other, the reshuffling of global income positions that I just explained is indeed politically very challenging.
Reflecting on your question, Adam Smith's perspective in "The Wealth of Nations" sheds some light on the matter. He compared England and France, noting that France had a larger population than England or Scotland. From a purely humanistic standpoint, one might argue that improving incomes in France is more important because it affects more people. However, Smith observed that an Englishman or Scotsman who prioritizes the well-being of another nation rather than his own would be considered a poor patriot. This presents a fundamental dilemma, and we don't have a definitive answer to it. We find ourselves caught between a cosmopolitan view that desires prosperity for all and a concern for our own income positions. Resolving this dilemma is far from easy.