13 on Ukraine
I don't know if I can do a serious Ukraine post this morning. I have a pressure headache which will produce blinding eye flashes later. So I am just going to present some important questions which I have considered, with my approximates answers.
We should understand that it is very difficult to trust what any media says is going on in this war. The pro-Russian people are right, we can't trust the USA media. The pro-Ukraine people are right, we can't trust the Russian media. So, it takes a lot of research and consideration before one can come up with answers to questions about what might be going on over there. With all due respect to my Russian LJ friends, my tentative conclusions have tended to come out unfavourable to their noble cause.
1 - Is Putin targetting civilians? Yes. His latest salvo has been thrown at civilians in various cities in retaliation for Ukraine's strong attempts to take back strategic cities. targetting civilians is a war crime.
2 - Is Putin allowing civilians to leave Kiev? He has made the offer to do so only if this city surrenders. In other words, no.
3 - Is Putin using unfair weapons? Absolutely. Chemical weapons, oxygen-sucking bomms and supesonic missiles have been used.
4 - Is the Russian convoy stuck outside of Kiev? There are different answers. Some say it is bogged down and under attack. Some say Putin is waiting to pounce. I believe both are true, but that Putin is trying to use the threat of this convoy as a ploy to push the West back, just as he is using supersonic missiles and the threat of nuclear weapons.
5 - Does Putin want to take Poland and other Eastern European countries? Putin would like to do this, and feels he has an 'ethnic' right to do this. However, this is not his primary objective. His primary objective is to get the West out of eastern Ukraine or all of Ukraine. He sees corruption and Jews and NAZIs and possibly NATO missiles there.
6 - Is Ukraine full of NAZIs and Jews.? No, it is not. What would be the point of annexing it if it were so different to Russia? On the other hand, there are many neoNAZIs in Ukraine, not a majority. There are many Jews in Ukraine, not a majority. And I believe that the majority of the population speaks Ukrainian, not Russian. My gripe is that both the West and Russia, who take opposite sides here, are incorrect.
7 - Is Putin a psychopath who wants to see the former glory of the USSR restored? Kind of yes. Putin has always been USSR, and continues to be USSR. So, he feels that, since the USSR, "created Ukraine," then Russia deserves to reannex it. Despite his words that Russia would "decommunise" Ukraine, Putin remains invested in communism, in so much as it brings power. So do many Russians. Putin has always been focused on gaining power, and this makes his military moves very dangerous.
8 - Is Ukraine really a part of Russia, anyway? No. Ukraine is derived from a region, The Ukraine, which has had many alliances and affixations in the past, some with Russia, some not. The current country is ethnically divided and only partly Russian speaking. The whole vast area, from Romania to Siberia, has been a field of conflicting peoples moving back and forth ever since prehistory.
9 - Does Russia have an argument that the West needs to step back? Absolutely. It was folly for the West to try to advance NATO and the EU towards Ukraine and other far flung countries. It not only didn't makes sense, but it was also provocative. It assumed Russia was now defeated, and could be pushed around and exploited. Western capitalism has been pushing into Russia since the days of the first railroads. Russia has been at various disadvantages, and is correct to be somewhat paranoid. The inhumane and destructive push into Ukraine, however, is counterproductive to Russia's interests, and has more to do with Putin's will to power.
10 - Does the move into Ukraine have something to do with antisemitism? Yes. Like the German NAZIs, Russian communists have been historically antisemitic. Even while they were anti-NAZI. This big contradiction has also existed, to some degree, in the new American Left, at least until it decided to deny that NAZIism was a problem in Ukraine. Today, bellicose Russia is supported by antisemites in Iran, Syria, Bellaruss and at home.
11 - Has the Biden administration (etc.) encouraged the development of this crises. ABSOLUTELY. And it continues to do so.
12 - Does this crisis go deeper than it seems, where the parties involved are, at least somewhat, doing the bidding of more powerful, global players? Yes.
13 - Is there a danger of a nuclear war? Yes. That includes nukes hitting the USA.
We should understand that it is very difficult to trust what any media says is going on in this war. The pro-Russian people are right, we can't trust the USA media. The pro-Ukraine people are right, we can't trust the Russian media. So, it takes a lot of research and consideration before one can come up with answers to questions about what might be going on over there. With all due respect to my Russian LJ friends, my tentative conclusions have tended to come out unfavourable to their noble cause.
1 - Is Putin targetting civilians? Yes. His latest salvo has been thrown at civilians in various cities in retaliation for Ukraine's strong attempts to take back strategic cities. targetting civilians is a war crime.
2 - Is Putin allowing civilians to leave Kiev? He has made the offer to do so only if this city surrenders. In other words, no.
3 - Is Putin using unfair weapons? Absolutely. Chemical weapons, oxygen-sucking bomms and supesonic missiles have been used.
4 - Is the Russian convoy stuck outside of Kiev? There are different answers. Some say it is bogged down and under attack. Some say Putin is waiting to pounce. I believe both are true, but that Putin is trying to use the threat of this convoy as a ploy to push the West back, just as he is using supersonic missiles and the threat of nuclear weapons.
5 - Does Putin want to take Poland and other Eastern European countries? Putin would like to do this, and feels he has an 'ethnic' right to do this. However, this is not his primary objective. His primary objective is to get the West out of eastern Ukraine or all of Ukraine. He sees corruption and Jews and NAZIs and possibly NATO missiles there.
6 - Is Ukraine full of NAZIs and Jews.? No, it is not. What would be the point of annexing it if it were so different to Russia? On the other hand, there are many neoNAZIs in Ukraine, not a majority. There are many Jews in Ukraine, not a majority. And I believe that the majority of the population speaks Ukrainian, not Russian. My gripe is that both the West and Russia, who take opposite sides here, are incorrect.
7 - Is Putin a psychopath who wants to see the former glory of the USSR restored? Kind of yes. Putin has always been USSR, and continues to be USSR. So, he feels that, since the USSR, "created Ukraine," then Russia deserves to reannex it. Despite his words that Russia would "decommunise" Ukraine, Putin remains invested in communism, in so much as it brings power. So do many Russians. Putin has always been focused on gaining power, and this makes his military moves very dangerous.
8 - Is Ukraine really a part of Russia, anyway? No. Ukraine is derived from a region, The Ukraine, which has had many alliances and affixations in the past, some with Russia, some not. The current country is ethnically divided and only partly Russian speaking. The whole vast area, from Romania to Siberia, has been a field of conflicting peoples moving back and forth ever since prehistory.
9 - Does Russia have an argument that the West needs to step back? Absolutely. It was folly for the West to try to advance NATO and the EU towards Ukraine and other far flung countries. It not only didn't makes sense, but it was also provocative. It assumed Russia was now defeated, and could be pushed around and exploited. Western capitalism has been pushing into Russia since the days of the first railroads. Russia has been at various disadvantages, and is correct to be somewhat paranoid. The inhumane and destructive push into Ukraine, however, is counterproductive to Russia's interests, and has more to do with Putin's will to power.
10 - Does the move into Ukraine have something to do with antisemitism? Yes. Like the German NAZIs, Russian communists have been historically antisemitic. Even while they were anti-NAZI. This big contradiction has also existed, to some degree, in the new American Left, at least until it decided to deny that NAZIism was a problem in Ukraine. Today, bellicose Russia is supported by antisemites in Iran, Syria, Bellaruss and at home.
11 - Has the Biden administration (etc.) encouraged the development of this crises. ABSOLUTELY. And it continues to do so.
12 - Does this crisis go deeper than it seems, where the parties involved are, at least somewhat, doing the bidding of more powerful, global players? Yes.
13 - Is there a danger of a nuclear war? Yes. That includes nukes hitting the USA.