Failure

[lynxreign]

The failure of the NFL to address this makes me far less interested in the NFL as a whole.

I still care about the Packers and I'm not saying people shouldn't like their team, but the handwaving and "nothing to see here" taints the entire enterprise for me.

I posted this on Facebook, but I probably should have just posted it here. Ah well.

Comments

[lynxreign]

Had the NFL not engaged in a cover-up, this wouldn't be nearly the problem for me that it is now.

Honesty would help a LOT. If Bellicheck were forced to admit wrongdoing and punished in a way that hurt the team more than cheating helped it, I'd be satisfied. I think Kraft should be fined too in a way that he'd be less likely to tolerate this in the future. Suspend Bellicheck during the playoffs or remove him from the team for a year or fire him. Hell, putting asterisks next to all his records as head coach of the Pats might be enough. As long as it was something serious enough that an outsider could believe a smart man wouldn't risk it again, I'd be satisfied.

As it is, the punishment was like an indulgent mother saying "naughty boy, don't do it again" *wink* *wink*.

Hell, I used to root for the Pats before all this crap came out. Many of my friends are Pats fans and I want them to do well unless they're playing the Packers. I just want to believe they're doing it honestly.

Unfortunately, I think Bellicheck started cheating and is prone to it because of the way he's been jerked around in his career. He's been seriously screwed over several times and I think that has affected him. (Sure, armchair psychology is rarely worth anything, but I figured as long as I'm sharing my impressions)

[bryant]

Note that Belichick personally lost 25% of his salary. In absolute terms, he had plenty of money left, but I would be very surprised if it didn't hurt.

They also lost a first round draft pick. This is a big deal for the Patriots -- consider their drafting strategy. They stockpile draft picks more than any other team. Belichick strongly prefers to improve via the draft. In this specific case, let's see. The Pats wound up drafting CB Terrence Wheatley with their next available draft pick. He has gone nowhere in the NFL.

The two CBs selected after the forfeited pick were Brandon Flowers and Tracy Porter. Neither of these guys are superstars, but CB was a position the Pats were and are fairly weak at, and either of them would have been a substantial upgrade to Terrence Wheatley.

It's also worth noting that only two teams have ever been forced to forfeit a draft pick. It is one of the rarest penalties applied for cheating in the NFL. It's also the only time anyone has ever been forced to forfeit a first round draft pick.

So there's that.

You're also assuming in this argument that there's no such thing as progressive punishment, and I think that's completely wrong. If Belichick gets caught cheating again, it's not going to be a 500K fine plus a lost draft pick.

[lynxreign]

If a head coach who's been one as long as Bellicheck has and could 1/4 of 1 year's pay for a superbowl ring? In a heartbeat. And didn't Kraft essentially pay the fine for him?

And the NFL sent a very mixed signal. You're fined, but we'll cover up earlier instances. You lose a draft pick, but can trade up.

And all of the punishments that could hurt the team were future punishments. Plenty of teams sacrifice the future to try to win now.

[bryant]

No, Kraft didn't pay the fine for him. That was explicitly forbidden and there's no evidence that it happened.

Regarding draft picks:

"'The loss of a No. 1 draft pick is about as serious a penalty as you could impose,' Mara [owner of the Giants] said. 'You could survive your coach being suspended a couple of weeks. But losing a No. 1 pick is far more devastating.'"

And you just completely ignored my point about progressive punishment. I'll make it again: the punishment gets worse the second time you get caught. You cited the Broncos incident this season. You should be aware that Steve Scarnecchia is facing a possible ban from the NFL because it's his second time. His first time, of course, was with the Patriots.

If Belichick is caught cheating again, that's what he's facing. Do you think Belichick would cheat if the consequence for being caught was being banned from the NFL?

[lynxreign]

If it gets him one last Superbowl? Maybe. If he thinks he can get away with it? Probably.

And losing a #1 pick is devestating in the future. Suspending your head coach in the playoffs? Or even in the runup to the playoffs if you haven't secured a berth? That might not be as "devestating", but it is far more immediate and far mroe definite. Would you rather have your head coach suspended in the playoffs or miss drafting Ryan Leaf? The draft is a gamble and it has no bearing on your current season. Get fired 'cause you didn't win and you're not going to care about the draft.

[bryant]

So... what prior punishment would change that equation? Sounds like you're saying that he should have been banned the first time it happened.

[lynxreign]

I'm saying the NFL should have come clean with the tapes they destroyed. I'm saying Bellicheck should have been suspended for a few games. Losing a draft pick you can easily think you're clever enough to make up for that. Hell your "amazing" QB was a 6th round pick.

[bryant]

If he'd been suspended for a few games, wouldn't you just say that it's a small price to pay for winning three Super Bowl rings and winning three more would be worth additional risk?

[lynxreign]

Not if it kept him from having a winning season. If the penalty directly interferes with the reason for cheating then there's no reason to cheat as it is counter-productive if you're caught. Especially if it is linked with escallating punishment as you suggest.

If the suspension is effectively enforced and he has no contact with the team and the team doesn't make the playoffs he's unlikely to try again, especially if the second time he's suspended without pay for a season.

I don't like the idea of lifetime bans, but I suppose that at some point that's what you're left with.

[bryant]

You're saying having a single winning season is more important than three Super Bowl titles?

[lynxreign]

I'm saying that if the penalty prevents another superbowl then yes. Plus an admission of guilt. The purpose of cheating is to win more. If you are caught and then lose more then it makes sense to stop.

Are you suggesting taking away the past superbowl wins? If the NFL would investigate properly, they might be tagged with * in the record books, but that's unlikely to happen. While that does bother me, what's more important is making sure it doesn't happen again and I think suspensions are a good way to achieve that.

[lynxreign]

And it also all depends on if Bellicheck believes the consequence will be as severe as banning from the NFL. As it stands, thanks to the NFL's complicity and his not being even suspended the first time, he probably doesn't. Or if he thinks he has his scapegoats set up. A lot of it depends on what happens to Steve Scarnecchia. Maybe if he's banned, but Bellicheck might think he's special since he's a head coach and revered. Part of the reason he's still revered is because of the cover-up. We're not to know if he cheated to get those championships and that's a big part of why I can't believe the penalties that have alrady been handed down and the threat of banishment matter. Has anyone ever been given a lifetime ban before in NFL for something other than gambling?

[bryant]

Yes. Dexter Manley got a lifetime ban, for example.

[lynxreign]

OK, I should have said other than gambling or drug tests, criminal activities.

For all I know Bellicheck may feel he has no option but to keep cheating. If his players and team and coaching seem ordinary all of a sudden, that could be more damning than any single allegation of cheating. Had he been forced to admit what he'd done, had the NFL released the tapes we might have a * next to a few seasons, but it'd be over. If he's exposed now, his entire career could be tainted. If he gets caught one more time it could still be explained away as a few instances.