Flu Talk
My friend Missy Pancake posted this on Facebook. It makes good sense and she has an in on the intel.
So, I've been reading a lot of media coverage, internal messaging from the hospital and listening to interviews with Vanderbilt's infectious disease experts. Here is what I have gathered:
1) "Swine flu" (now officially 2009 H1N1 influenza) is spreading, but it is mild. Most people think they have a summer cold. Most people are not seriously ill with it. Few people need to be hospitalized.
2) If you *DO* get H1N1, it responds well to the antivirals Tamiflu and Relenza, but there is currently not a vaccine.
3) The "regular" flu killed 36,000 people in the U.S. last year. This is nowhere close to that.
So .... Why is everyone freaking out about it? (And this is strictly my opinion and interpretation of information I've read/seen):
1) Influenza viruses are notoriously unpredictable. They mutate quickly and often. What is mild now *COULD* become worse. Or not. The experts just don't know, so they are preparing for worst case scenarios.
2) H1N1 contains genetics from human, avian and swine as well as a couple scientists have not seen before. This makes them more concerned about the potential unpredictability.
3) H1N1 is the type of virus that caused the deadly 1918 influenza pandemic. In comparison, the bird flu that caused all the hype a few years ago was a H1N5 virus -- apparently, the H1N1 causes the infectious disease people to sit up and take notice.
4) In the four major influenza pandemics since we've been tracking such things (1889, 1918, 1957 and 1968), they all started with a wave of flu in the spring (past peak flu season) that was mild followed by a deadlier wave (probably after the virus mutated) in the late summer. Health officials are watching and preparing *in case* that happens.
5) The school closings and other "social distancing" suggestions are because of a study of the 1918 flu. The study of 43 cities showed that non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closing schools and isolating patients -- were the most effective deterrent to the spread of the flu. So, that's why those have been incorporated into the new flu plan.
The main message at Vanderbilt has been "Be prepared, not scared." And wash your hands! :-)