Your Annual 2007 Academy Award Predictions According To Hank
For all who read this as annually as I watch the Academy Awards, I am ready to cast my predictions for this year's Oscars.
Though, I will go ahead and say for the record that this year has been a hell of a lot easier than recent ones with the exception of the Best Picture race which is one of the more difficult calls to make in the last few years. Every award is quite literally on lock, though a few surprises are not only possible but plausible but you'll know what I mean by the end of this.
So...without any further adue I give you the run down of this year's Academy Awards:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza "Babel"
Cate Blanchett "Notes On A Scandal"
Abigail Breslin "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi "Babel"
WINNER: Jennifer Hudson "Dreamgirls"
POSSIBLE UPSET: Abigail Breslin "Little Miss Sunshine"
As are all of the actors I will predict as winners in the four categories, Jennifer Hudson is practically a lock for the Supporting Actress trophy. Who would've thought that American Idol wasn't just a horrible show to boost a music career but an acting one to boot? The love for "Dreamgirls" was so strong that ever since the teaser came out for it anyone and everyone, including myself, was planning on seeing it take the Best Picture without any problems whatsoever. However, the academy actually snubbed it in favor of placing Clint Eastwood's "Letters From Iwo Jima" in the race. (Not that I mind, I never saw it and was heavily biased against it from the start because of Beyonce Knowles....shallow, I know.....) Nevertheless, the love for the film's performers has remained consistent. Hudson, especially. The only real threat is Abigail Breslin for "Little Miss Sunshine" the Oscars are no strangers to favoring young performers, let alone young females. Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin both won at the age of 10 for "Paper Moon" and "The Piano" respectively (O'Neal being the youngest Oscar winner ever) and it wouldn't be all too much of a shock to see Breslin join their company. The love In the long haul, though, I think Hudson is going home an Oscar winner tonight. Cate Blanchett can't be counted out simply because she is very much loved by Hollywood and has previously won for "The Aviator" so as a result she can't be counted simply because she has won before. But, on the flip side, she won only two years ago so that could hurt her under the rationale of 'she's won too recently'. Barraza and Kikuchi are the only performers from "Babel" to be nominated for the film but I think the film has better chances of winning Best Picture.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie E. Haley "Little Children"
Dijimon Hounsou "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy "Dreamgirls"
Mark Whalberg "The Departed"
WINNER: Eddie Murphy "Dreamgirls"
POSSIBLE UPSET: Alan Arkin "Little Miss Sunshine" / Jackie E. Haley "Little Children"
As I said for Jennifer Hudson, the love for the "Dreamgirls" performers never lost its edge. Therefore, look for Eddie Murphy to take home the statue. Much like Hudson, he's won the grand majority of precursors in this category so its only practical that he'll take home the gold. More support comes from the fact that Hollywood has always like Eddie Murphy and though its nowhere on par with Jackie E. Haley, it is somewhat of a comeback for Murphy and the Academy does love a good comeback story. On the other hand, though I think its been blown up a bit too much, is the fact that Murphy's film "Norbit" is so terrible that it just may hurt him out of the sheer irritation he's causing the country with the movie. But in the end, I'll give Murphy the gold. The movie has great box office which is the saving grace because the movie would have to be simply unbearable for the Academy to look over him on those grounds. But it's not to say that they won't at the same time. I've said all along that if any upset is likely to occur in any of the acting categories tonight, it's the Best Supporting Actor category. Alan Arkin has the love that has come pouring in for "Little Miss Sunshine" critically and audience-wise since it was released. Having gone to see "Little Miss Sunshine" in theaters when it opened, I can say that I would have no problem with seeing Arkin win or Breslin for that matter, if not the film itself for Best Picture. To add on the Arkin factor, this is the third time he's been nominated and the last two occasions were over 30 years ago....seriously. You could argue that he's overdue for the Oscar, but I won't go there because its not on par with the likes of Peter O'Toole in the Best Actor race. So just let it be known that if anyone's likely to take the Oscar away from Murphy, its Alan Arkin. If not Arkin, then Jackie E. Haley. Jackie E. Haley IS THE SUPREME comeback story. After being a child star then bottoming out somewhere around the age of 16, Haley is back nearly 30 years later with his first Academy Award nomination and one of the most talked about performances of the year. In the underappreciated film "Little Children" Haley gave a haunting portrayal of a pedophile struggling with his past, inner demons, and pure shame and guilt. Though love for the film was lackluster, Haley's performance was mentioned in every single review for the film. After peaking in the original "Bad News Bears" as a child Haley lost all his money and career and according to a recent interview, he was going so far as to steal golf balls from driving ranges and selling them back the next day just to make a buck. So purely based on the comeback element alone, he could steal the win. Mark Whalberg not only pulled a surprise nominee of the year for "The Departed" but actually stole and beat out his co-star Jack Nicholson for the slot. I'm happy that he's nominated and after having seen "The Departed" last night gearing up for the Oscars, he does have some of the best lines in the entire film and I can say that he deserves it. He did it all on his own and without the use of a foot long prosthetic penis (THATS RIGHT WOMEN!!! IT WAS FAKE! THERE I SAID IT!!!) Congrats to the man who brought us the hot single Good Vibrations back in the 90s. Hounsou might have been nominated just to justify Dicaprio's nomination for "Blood Diamond" but who cares? This is his second nomination since "In America" a few years back but there's no chance he'll take home the Oscar. Hounsou and Whalberg can be happy with being nominated. But like I said before, in the end, I'll give it to Eddie Murphy.
BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz "Volver"
Judi Dench "Notes On A Scandal"
Helen Mirren "The Queen"
Meryl Streep "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet "Little Children"
WINNER: Helen Mirren "The Queen"
POSSIBLE UPSET: ---------- NOBODY, SERIOUSLY, NOBODY ----------
This one is a closed case. Helen Mirren is going to win. I bet my life on it. And if she doesn't, it will be the biggest upset of the year. Helen Mirren and Forrest Whitaker both have done in the Best Actor/Best Actress categories what Philip Seymour Hoffman did with "Capote" last year: they've swept every single precursor award prior to the Oscars. Therefore, by default, she is going to be the winner. Penelope Cruz can enjoy her first nomination. Judi Dench isn't even going to the Oscars (knee surgery but she knows she's not gonna win) so she'll just watch from her hospital room television eating jell-o. Meryl Streep sets the all-time record again after topping her previous record of 14 nominations by landing her 15th for "The Devil Wears Prada" the most by anyone ever. By that logic alone and two previously won Oscars, you could say you can never count her out, but this isn't the type of role they'll give her a third for. Kate Winslet is probably the closest to a threat. This is her 5th nomination and she still hasn't won, so she has the overdue factor on her side. But Mirren is too much of a powerhouse and even Winslet herself should know she's going to get one eventually. So let's not even take this one any further. Helen Mirren will win the Oscar. If she doesn't I will tattoo "I LOVE PATRICK SWAYZE IN DIRTY DANCING" on my forehead, gladly.
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole "Venus"
Will Smith "The Pursuit Of Happyness"
Forrest Whitaker "The Last King Of Scotland"
WINNER: Forrest Whitaker "The Last King Of Scotland"
POSSIBLE UPSET: Peter O'Toole "Venus"
As I mentioned a minute ago, Whitaker and Mirren have swept every single precursor. So techinically he's a lock to win. The interesting part is that he's not as much of a lock as Mirren due to one man: Peter O'Toole. While it's not entirely likely it's still a possibility. There are three factors that could possibly hurt Whitaker's chances: 1) Peter O'Toole has been nominated 7 times and hasn't won....but I'll get to that in a minute. 2) Some people have made some noise about the fact that Whitaker's part is technically a supporting one as his role of playing Idi Amin isn't the main character and only occupies about 30 minutes of screen time, give or take. 3) Some people have also made a fuss, though I think it's irrelevant, about Whitaker's previous acceptance speeches in all the awards he's won thus far. Best example being the Golden Globes where he awkwardly and achingly stumbled, mumbled, and fumbled his way through words and incoherent sentences just to muster out a simple "Thank you." The last two reasons are pretty light in comparison to O'Toole but I'm willing to bet Whitaker will win and has at least considered writing an acceptance speech prior to tonight's festivities. Now, onto Peter O'Toole. Peter O'Toole holds some serious clout just for his name alone. Again, he's been nominated seven times and still hasn't won. He is one of most recognized, glorified, and decorated actors of his generation. I mean, come on people, this is Lawrence Of Arabia we're talking about. Not only that, but Peter is 74 years old now I believe and being the hard-drinking and hard-smoking Englishman that he is, he's not likely to be around much longer which past Oscar ceremonies have proven to be a big factor. Martin Landou won in 1994 over heavy favorite Samuel L. Jackson for "Pulp Fiction" for Best Supporting Actor due to fact that people liked him and thought he was on his way out. Here we are, 20 years later, and he's still alive.....oops. Last but not least, given the naturally humorous fellow that he is, O'Toole could give a pretty entertaining acceptance speech in comparison to Whitaker's previous attempts. The only thing hurting him, besides Whitaker's domination so far, is that O'Toole was given an Honorary Oscar a few years ago, which some can view as an Oscar itself (even though it's often times the "Sorry We Never Gave You An Oscar" Oscar) but it wouldn't be unlikely in the least for O'Toole's merit and overdue quality not to mention the sympathy factor to push him to the podium. Then there's the others. DiCaprio was teetering all year between getting nominated for "Blood Diamond" or "The Departed". His role in "The Departed" created category confusion as to whether or not he should be in the Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor spot for the role. He even came close to landing double nods has they put him in the Best Supporting Actor slot for "The Departed" but alas, it was not meant to be. His role "Blood Diamond" was a lot friendlier in the end and now here he is, nominated for the third time but still not about to win any time soon. Will Smith just pushed out the baitiest Oscar-baiting role that ever did bait for an Oscar this year in "The Pursuit Of Happyness". Seriously, this one big fucking PLEASE NOMINATE ME role. Let alone the fact that his son was his costar. So what happens? The Academy took the bait. It's his sencond time being nominated after ALI but like DiCaprio, he's not about to win. Then there's Ryan Gosling. When I first heard about "Half Nelson" and his performance I was thinking "This is same guy from The Notebook???" But then I thought to myself how he never really has been a pretty boy. "The Notebook" put him in the stereotype but if you've seen an earlier film of his "The Believer" where he plays a Jewish Neo-Nazi Skinhead (in the most basic of terms) then you'd be aware of what he can do. I just saw "Half Nelson" last night and he is, for lack of a better word, incredible. He plays a coke/crack addicted history teacher who forms an unlikely bond with a 13 year old student after she discovers him hitting rock bottom (and a crack pipe) in a bathroom stall. Im serious guys, Gosling deserves all the credit in the world. He was absolutely mesmerizing, heartbreaking, and redeeming all in about an hour and a half. With that said though, Forrest Whitaker is most likely to win but don't be surprised if O'Toole snatches it from him.
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood "Letters From Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears "The Queen"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu "Babel"
Paul Greengrass "United 93"
Martin Scorcese "The Departed"
WINNER: Martin Scorcese "The Departed"
POSSIBLE UPSET: Paul Greengrass "United 93"
If you've read my previous Oscar predictions you're well aware of Scorcese's track record. This man is the king of the I AM WAY-OVER-FUCKING-DUE Oscars. "Raging Bull" was shafted in favor of "Rocky" , "Goodfellas" was shafted in favor of "Dances With Wolves", "The Aviator" shafted for "Million Dollar Baby" and oh god the list goes on and on and on and on. So naturally, I'm really hesitant and skeptical to say Scorcese's gonna win especially considering I called him to win for "The Aviator" based on the fact he hadn't won yet and Clint Eastwood robbed him. However, with all my reluctance I will say that it looks like he will finally get his long over due and much desired Academy Award. He's been consistently recognized all year by the right precursors to assure him a victory at long last and for a film that has been hailed as being his best since "Goodfellas". Crime has always been Scorcese's specialty and after ventures into epics like "Gangs Of New York" and "The Aviator" he has finally returned to the genre that everyone loves him for. Even all of Hollywood seemed behind him as just about every actor with some weight was in this movie (Leonardo Dicaprio, Matt Damon, Jack Nicholson, Mark Whalberg, Alec Baldwin, Martin Sheen, Ray Winstone.....etc...) it would have been the film with the longest list of big names this year had it not been for "Bobby" which, for the record, let me spout of these names (Anthony Hopkings, Sharon Stone, Emilio Estevez, Martin Sheen, Elijah Wood, Lindsay Lohan ---i know...---, Helen Hunt, Lawrence Fishbourne, Ashton Kutcher ---i know again....---, Demi Moore, Nick Cannon, Shila Leboulf .....et-fucking-cetera)
....now that i've caught my breath....
All in all, Scorcese should win. But because he's Scorcese no one will be suprised if he doesn't. So let's look at who's left.
Paul Greengrass could possibly upset for "United 93" for telling a widely critically praised portrayal of the passengers of United 93 that took down the fourth and final hijacked plane on 9/11 driving it down into a field in Pennsylvania. For simple love of the story let alone how well it was done, he could win but it just might be Scorcese's year. But for the reasons just mentioned, I'll leave him as the most likely to upset. The other biggest potential upsetter is Clint Eastwood who is becoming more and more of an Academy darling. He robbed Scorcese's last attempt with "Million Dollar Baby" and now he's pulled double duty this year by filming "Flags Of Our Fathers" and "Letters Of Iwo Jima". Two accounts of the World War II's battles between the US and Japan from the perspective of the Americans (Flags Of Our Fathers) and the perspective of the Japanese (Letters From Iwo Jima). "Flags..." was more of a story of aftermath than "Letters..." and didn't recieve that much love, critically. "Letters..." on the other hand did. Praised for Eastwood's handling of the subject matter from a Japanese point of view for being an American (the entire film is in Japanese) but also detailing the heartbreak of the Japanese knowing that they were walking into a losing battle but marching on. Eastwood already has two Best Director oscars and two Best Picture oscars (Unforgiven, Million Dollar Baby) so that's always in his favor but it also will probably hurt him too as he just won for "Million Dollar Baby" two years ago. "Letters From Iwo Jima" seemed to peak with its nomination too so I'll rule Eastwood out, despite the talented director that he is. Stephen Frears gets to be happy with his nomination and as I mentioned earlier, I think "Babel" has better chances in Best Picture. Which is too bad, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has put out incredible movies like "Amoros Peros" (my apologies for the spelling) and "21 Grams" and is concluding this death trilogy as he calls it with "Babel". I think he'll get his one day. Until then....Martin Scorcese all the way.
BEST FILM
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
WINNER: Babel
POSSIBLE UPSET: The Departed OR Little Miss Sunshine OR Letters From Iwo Jima
Let me go ahead and say that this the category I have racked my brain over for the past month. The problem with this category is that there is no clear-cut prediction. All the films hold clout but there's just no telling. And for such an Oscar nut like myself, its is EXTREMELY FRUSTRATING. So let me go ahead and start this final prediction from who's least likely to win: "The Queen". While "The Queen" is Oscar-favorable material dealing with the Royal Family's reaction to death of Princes Diana it has been overshadowed by Helen Mirren's performance. It has been called this year's "Capote" and the title is correct. "Capote", while a good film, rode Philip Seymour Hoffman's performance all the way into the Kodak Theater last year and that is exactly what "The Queen" had done. So there, enough said. Then there's "Letters From Iwo Jima" I'll try not to repeat myself too much here. "Letters From Iwo Jima" has all the right qualities to win: Directed by Clint Eastwood, Produced by Steven Spielberg, and it deals with the Academy's favorite subject matter --- World War 2. But it seemed to peak with its nomination and it the fact that all of the movie's dialogue is in Japanese doesn't exactly draw the Academy in (remember "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" ? Same thing) But it just doesn't seem as likely a candidate as the remaining films. I want so badly to put my money on "Little Miss Sunshine" as it has many of the qualities that help push a film to Best Picture and that is a strong box office and consistently positive reviews. For the film that puts the word FUN in DYSFUNCTINOAL it seems like it has a lot going for it, and it does. The film being campaigned as Little Best Picture could very well be that by the end of the night. It was named by the Producers Guild Of America as Best Picture (producers making up a large part of the academy voters) and won Best Ensemble Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards (actors being the biggest majority of academy voters and took "Crash" all the way to Best Picture last year....a subject I'll address momentarily.) But it does have a lot standing in the way. Most films that win Best Picture are nominated in the directing category, "Little Miss Sunshine" is not, however. The husband-and-wife duo that directed the film were thrown out in favor of Paul Greengrass for "United 93" and this does considerable damage to the film's chances. Another part is that the films is both Independent and a Comedy. Two things that the Academy doesn't tend to favor. While the film is terribly funny, overwhelmingly heartwarming, and has a lovely and beautiful story and message the Academy does tend to favor its dramas much more. I personally thought that "Sideways" was the Best Picture a couple years ago but "Million Dollar Baby" was too much for the Academy to resist. As much as I love "Little Miss Sunshine" it doesn't seem to have quite all the right ingredients to pick up the Best Picture trophy. Then there's "The Departed". To save time I'll just ask you to remember everything I wrote about Scorcese in the last prediction as it plays a major role. In a year when the Best Picture Winner is up in the air and there is no clear cut movie to come out on top, why not honor Scorcese even more with a Best Picture Win (a category he has also never won) while we're giving him a Best Director oscar. This way, we can escape the guilt of snubbing a clear-cut winner just because we owe Scorcese one. Also in consideration, "The Departed" is Scorcese's highest grossing film at the box office and the highest grossing of all the Best Picture candidates. This helps tremendously which is why I think it has the strongest chances of upsetting my predicted winner "Babel". Its irritated me all year that "Babel" has been called "This year's 'Crash' " but that statement does hold some merit. It's an ensemble drama that tells the story of an accidental shooting that effects the lives of characters of multiple characters on three different continents in three different languages, which is quite the feat. It's overall theme of understanding is right up the Academy's alley much like "Crash" was. However, "Crash" had themes the Academy could hide behind because they were too conservative too award "Brokeback Mountain" 's gay love story for Best Picture, despite how much it was the rightful winner. That's not my opinion, that's a fucking fact. But "Babel" has been the most consistent during the awards season with nominations, leading the Oscars this year in nominations as well. It won Best Drama at the Golden Globes which helps boost its chances. The only factors in its way is that it didnt have a great box office and the reviews of it were rather so-so with some critics praising it, others ignoring it, and others somewhere in between saying it was "an okay movie". With that said, I really do want to put my money on "Little Miss Sunshine" and hope that it wins, but in a year that is so up-in-the-air as this one, "Babel" is the safest bet. No disrespect to "Babel", "The Departed", "Letters From Iwo Jima", or "The Queen" but I really did love "Little Miss Sunshine". So there, that's it. I'm betting on "Babel" to pick up Best Picture.
Well...there you have it ladies and gentlemen. The final Oscar Predictions:
Jennifer Hudson "Dreamgirls"
Eddie Murphy "Dreamgirls"
Helen Mirren "The Queen"
Forrest Whitaker "The Last King Of Scotland"
Martin Scorcese "The Departed"
Babel
....ugh.....i'm completely drained now.
but as usual. for all of you who actually take the time read this, if you dont mind, please write some kind of response. i just wasted an hour of my life typing this up. besides, i love hearing from all of you to begin with.
talk to you guys later.
hope you enjoyed if you even put up with all of my nonsense-like ramblings of obsession.
and if nothing else, i'll see you next year.