Today I read an article on the nine inch nails and their attitude to downloading
http://www.theage.com.au/news/web/steal-music-nails-frontman-tells-fans/2007/09/18/1189881482912.html It reminded me of a guy named Nicholas Negroponte wrote a book called Being Digital in 1995.
http://www.amazon.com/Being-Digital-Nicholas-Negroponte/dp/0679762906 He is to all intents and purposes a futurist and somewhat of a techno-determinist, despite this he is very interesting and was I have to saw to a degree right.
His theory is that our economy will eventually make the transition from Atoms to Bits. That this transition has been taking place for a long time and that it will have far reaching consequences for our lives. In this post I am looking at he saw that transition and the consequences it will (and has already had and is having) have for the music industry. Here is a brief summary of his position I wrote a few years back...
Nicholas Negroponte postulates in his book ‘Being Digital’ that our immediate future will be transformed by digital technology. He justifies this hypothesis by referring to the growing transferral of physical matter into digital from. This exponentially increasing tendency of digital technology to take the essential function of an object, such as a CD, and other information that previously took physical form and to transmute this function into bits , such as an MP3, we will call the theory of Atoms to Bits.
The world of atoms is the world of material objects; recorded music and the varied manifestations of information and entertainment are given materiality in the form of CDs, books, magazines and so forth. Trade in the atom world is based on the slow movement of large quantities of these heavy inert masses over long distances . The enormous complexity of distributing atoms necessitates large centrally controlled companies who then add value to their product through this process . Numerous industries have products that are native to the world of atoms, such as food, textiles and cars. In the information and entertainment industries atoms and bits commingle, in Negroponte’s view, unnecessarily.
In the future we will begin to transfer commodious properties from atoms to bits . In the world of bits the limitations and costs associated with the distribution of atoms over distance and borders both physical and man made i.e. legal and national, will be eliminated and replaced by the ‘instantaneous and inexpensive transfer of electronic data that moves at the speed of light ’. The simplicity of the new mode of distribution, that being the transportation of bits through fibre optics, coaxial cable or telephone lines will open up new possibilities for the organization of information creation and distribution. Negroponte sees this simplicity as the key to a more decentralised information creation and distribution system .
For Negroponte the medium is not the message, bits have no one mode of manifestation. Unlike the book, the newspaper or the CD, bits could be and in some cases are all ready , an inherently flexible medium that relies upon the user to give them form . Negroponte sees the bit as the building block from which we construct a message that suits us, it is the ‘smallest atomic element in the DNA of information ’. The essential malleability of the bit is at the centre of what Negroponte sees as one of the fundamental consequences of the bit for media. Unlike atoms, bits ‘commingle effortlessly’; this mixing of audio, video and data opens up new possibilities for the way in which we interact with information .
The ‘irrevocable and unstoppable’ change from atoms to bits appears to Negroponte as an overarching tendency inherent in the technological base of our society. This hypothesis on the nature of the future of technical change appears to cohere with a standard interpretation of deterministic theory, but we also find within ‘Being Digital’ instrumentalism and a view that appears to support a social constructivist position. Is it possible to subsume these contradictory views under a single framework?
Firstly we must establish a basic definition of determinism and social construction within which we can work. In the interests of being concise we can use a definition provided by Thomas P. Hughes
“Technological determinism I define simply as the belief that technical forces determine social and cultural changes. Social construction presumes that social and cultural forces determine technical change ”
Negroponte’s rhetoric often seems to invite the conclusion that technical forces determine social and cultural change
“Better and more efficient delivery is what already exists is what most media executives think and talk about in the context of being digital. But like the Trojan horse, the consequences of this gift will be surprising. Wholly new content will emerge from being digital, as will new players, new economic models, and a likely cottage industry of information and entertainment providers ”
Other statements that indicate some form of determinism in Negroponte’s thought refer to the future of companies being decided by their ability to adapt to the new digital technologies . Another argument postulates that the mere existence of new mediums will lead to the extinction of older mediums . This view seemingly parallels the sequential nature of technical advancement put forward by Heilbroner in his article ‘Do machines Make History’ . Although a straightforward determinism is a tempting conclusion in light of the statements previously examined, upon closer inspection this conclusion seems premature.
These consequences will accelerate once we reach a point at which the interface disappears. The interface, its complexity and the learning time associated with it, is the only thing preventing widespread collapse of the atom order, at least in regards to media. Negroponte sees the future as being populated by 'agents' these agents will be our interface between the atom world and the bit world and will be voice activated. You will simply say, agent find and download a copy of nine inch nails album year zero. The agent will then carry out this function. Here is a small summary of Negropontes view of the interface
Negroponte sees the widespread adoption of digital technology as to some extent being precluded by the complexity of current interface design. The interface being the medium through which a user directs the activities of a technical artefact; the windows operating system is a simple example of a commonly used interface. Presently a computer and many other technologies demand both your direct attention and a certain level of technical proficiency. For Negroponte this is the central reason why ‘being digital’ is so hard. The future of interface design is to ‘make it disappear’ and in doing so make it more accessible. Negroponte’s ideal interface is based on two simple concepts, delegation and human redundancy.
For Negroponte delegation takes the form of an intelligent agent who can carry out tasks for you, requiring less direct interaction with a machine . These agents will be both specialised in the field in which they act for you and personalised in that they will know how you wish them to act in that particular field of endeavour. With the advent of ubiquitous computing even memory can be delegated to computers. Negroponte uses the example of a fridge asking your car to remind you pick up some milk . However delegation does not necessarily mean that you do not enjoy the tasks you delegate, but rather
“It means you have the option to do those things when you wish, because you want to, not because you have to. ”
The transfer of information from the user to the agent can potentially take place with little physical movement. Speech recognition is a high priority for Negroponte and he envisages a future where we converse more with machines than with people .
The second important aspect of future interfaces is their ability to make us redundant. A computer that knows about you will be able to carry out functions with very little if any input on behalf of the user.
“It has to be able to expand and contract signals as a function of knowing me and my environment so intimately that I literally can be redundant on most occasions. ”
Negroponte uses the example of a well-trained English butler as a metaphor for a human-computer interface. An invisible interface, a digital butler, that allows you to direct the functions of technical devices not only without technical proficiency but also without having to give a device your direct attention, is in Negroponte’s view, the future. It is this type of interface that can open up the benefits and potentialities contained within the digital world to those who are now excluded from it.
What Negroponte saw in 1995 is actually happening now and that is the death of the music industry. Negroponte did not advocate the death of the industry per se, but it is good that it dies. What will emerge is a 'cottage industry' of artists who survive only because we are willing to actually pay for their music, not because the market dominance of the big players means we have only a little to choose from. To read Negropontes view on this future read my summary below
Music in the atom world requires a large company that can gain economies of scale through mass production of a limited number of artist’s musical recordings. The products must then be shipped over long distances and this involves huge costs and all of the problems associated with delivery. Music can go out of print, become damaged, scarce or disappear entirely. Certain artist’s recordings or performances can be physically or financially out of reach.
The MP3, music in bit format, transcends these atom world limitations. An MP3 never goes out of print, gets lost or damaged. It is always accessible to anyone, anywhere at anytime. It has no physical mass, requires no shipping and handling, cannot be damaged or destroyed and much to the chagrin of the record companies has no cost but that incurred by the bandwidth needed to download it.
Record companies use statistics and demographics to identify a market, create a product with broad appeal and then market it so as to generate sales. Negroponte talks of a ‘post information age’ where we ‘often have an audience the size of one’ .
“The economic models of media today are based almost exclusively on ‘pushing’ the information and entertainment out into the public. Tomorrow’s will have as much or more to do with ‘pulling’, where you and I reach into the network and check out something the way we do in a library or video-rental store today. ”
The MP3 is the realisation of this desire in the realm of pre-recorded music. It is beyond demographics; each individual according to their moods and tastes can log on to a P2P network at anytime and ‘pull’ in the bits that appeal to them.
If we take the medium through which a user interacts with a device that procures music i.e. a stereo, sound system, a walkman, etc as an interface we can see that the MP3 is a step towards its disappearance. While the reduction of our interaction with a machine to clicking a mouse from having to physically place a CD into a stereo set and push a button may seem a minor, the elimination of activities required to achieve this is not. No more do we need to go to the store, browse, purchase and then play the music, instead this ensemble of activities is reduced to point and click and in Negroponte’s future not even that