Lunch With a Delegate
Well, potential delegate. And not the super kind, he won't be issued a cape. In actuality it was my old high school friend, Walter, who's running to be a delegate to the Democratic National Convention from Oregon on Saturday (that is, the running is on Saturday, not, obviously, the convention). Wow that was a lot of commas. Anyway, along with all the catching up with someone who's lived on the opposite side of the world from you for the past 8 years (London and Oxford), he mentioned a formula used for determining the outcome of presidential elections and I'd wondered if any of you have heard of it. I don't know the name, or the specific formula, but it involves the number of years the incumbent's party has been in office, his approval rating, and the state of the economy. If the number comes out positive, the incumbent's party stays in power. If it's negative, they're ousted. Apparently it's only been wrong once in modern elections, back in 1968 where the formula came out at negative 1/2 point and Richard Nixon won (and Bobby Kennedy was assassinated). The worst it's been was 1980 where it came out at -60 and Reagan kicked Carter's butt. Apparently, this election cycle, it comes in at -65. Yeah, I'm not terribly worried about a McCain presidency, even with all this Democratic infighting. Anyway, anybody have a clue what formula he might be talking about?