Iowa
Public
It's a bit of an oddity that Alice in Wonderland includes a "caucus race" scene, when practically nobody in modern-day Britain really knows what that means. The BBC seems to think it's important enough to run a live update page on the Iowa caucuses, though. I'm not paying an enormous amount of attention -- clearing up after the storms is of somewhat more immediate import -- but it's something to have on vaguely in the background. I suppose it's rather soothing in a way, as it makes a nice change from European economic disaster.
I keep meaning to make some political predictions for 2012, so that everyone can have something to laugh at later in the year, but I haven't got round to that yet. Still, while I'm on the subject here's a topical one: I think Barack Obama will win re-election in November, and if the Republicans choose anyone other than Mitt Romney as their candidate then the winning margin will be substantial. Of course, Obama may self-destruct in the intervening months, but my guess is that he won't, or at least not enough to lose the White House.
Of course lots and lots of variables are different, but I can't help thinking of the 2005 general election over here. By that time Tony Blair was personally unpopular with great swathes of Labour voters, who felt he hadn't governed with their interests at heart, yet his party still won a decent majority in the Commons. This was in no small part because the Tories had Michael Howard as their leader, a man who simply wasn't seen by the country at large as a credible alternative PM.
It's a bit of an oddity that Alice in Wonderland includes a "caucus race" scene, when practically nobody in modern-day Britain really knows what that means. The BBC seems to think it's important enough to run a live update page on the Iowa caucuses, though. I'm not paying an enormous amount of attention -- clearing up after the storms is of somewhat more immediate import -- but it's something to have on vaguely in the background. I suppose it's rather soothing in a way, as it makes a nice change from European economic disaster.
I keep meaning to make some political predictions for 2012, so that everyone can have something to laugh at later in the year, but I haven't got round to that yet. Still, while I'm on the subject here's a topical one: I think Barack Obama will win re-election in November, and if the Republicans choose anyone other than Mitt Romney as their candidate then the winning margin will be substantial. Of course, Obama may self-destruct in the intervening months, but my guess is that he won't, or at least not enough to lose the White House.
Of course lots and lots of variables are different, but I can't help thinking of the 2005 general election over here. By that time Tony Blair was personally unpopular with great swathes of Labour voters, who felt he hadn't governed with their interests at heart, yet his party still won a decent majority in the Commons. This was in no small part because the Tories had Michael Howard as their leader, a man who simply wasn't seen by the country at large as a credible alternative PM.