Питер Тиль о научно-техническом прогрессе
Думаю, как один из ведущих венчурных инвесторов, он имеет некоторое представление о темпах НТП (хотя не будем преувеличивать его знания):
Even during the Great Depression of the 1930s, innovation expanded new and emerging fields as divergent as radio, movies, aeronautics, household appliances, polymer chemistry, and secondary oil recovery. In spite of their many mistakes, the New Dealers pushed technological innovation very hard. The New Deal deficits, however misguided, were easily repaid by the growth of subsequent decades. During the Great Recession of the 2010s, by contrast, our policy leaders narrowly debate fiscal and monetary questions with much greater erudition, but have adopted a cargo-cult mentality with respect to the question of future innovation. As the years pass and the cargo fails to arrive, we eventually may doubt whether it will ever return.
Вывод, который можно сделать из этого, следующий - без осмысленных программ по разработке новых технологий нас ждет технологическая, а следом и экономическая стагнация. И никакой сингулярности.