New Climate Analysis Says Heat is Going to Get Serious

[liveonearth]

They're predicting that in most parts of the world the new "average" will be warmer than the previous "hot" (exceeds bounds of historical variability), beginning between 2033 and 2061 (global average 2047 if we keep going the way we are). Local variations are expected. Tropical regions should get uncomfortable before elsewhere. Even a serious

Comments

[ford_prefect42]

This is another area where I find myself skeptical. The thing is, *none* of the AOGCM models predicted the 18 year lull in warming that we are now experiencing. None of the models have, over the last 30 years, in any way accurately predicted any timeframe after their calibration period.

We engineers have a term for models that do not predict the behavior of the system being modeled. Useless.

Not to say that they're wrong, mind you, but that frankly, Gypsies have a better track record reading crystal balls than Climate Scientists do studying he models.

Now, let's play a game. Say that they're right. What is the "fix"?

An *80%* reduction in co2 emissions. Are you aware of what that would mean? Start with 4 billion deaths, as the technologies that allow people to survive New York, or Canadian, Or northern European winters become "prohibitively carbon intensive", as the long distance transportation and mechanized production of foods becomes unacceptable, as the entire infrastructure of every city on the planet becomes unusable. As.... In short, nothing that works now still does.

And all that to move the timeframe for their predicted apocalyptic warming out 7 years.

Sometimes, when faced with alternatives, the only sensible choice is to say "we'll deal with the problems you predict if we come to them". Climate change is one such case. As, to be honest, over recent decades, have been my own predictions of various dooms. All of mine were well founded, I still don't understand how they failed to cause apocalyptic results. And yet, they did. Just as the apocalyptic predictions made by every previous paper about global warming have failed to prove out.