(no subject)
Emer Tannam, February 2005
Irish Politics: Richard Sinnott
Tutor: Robert O’Rourke
Group 12
Voter Turnout (621 words)
*
Patterns of Vote Transfer (432)
*
Determinants of Party Support (400)
*
Patterns of Vote Transfer
Ireland’s electoral system is that of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote (STV) in multi-seat constituencies. Voters are asked to rank the
candidates in order of preference on the ballot paper. When a candidate is elected on the first count, their transferable papers are divided into sub-parcels according to the second preference. As with all voting systems, certain patterns emerge when the data from various elections is examined. In this brief account, I will attempt to outline some of these, and indicate what their implications are for Irish Politics.
Patterns of transfer voting can measure party loyalty, in two ways. Firstly, in terms of the disposition of voters to transfer their votes within the party. Secondly, in terms of party "plumping”; a process where the voter votes only for the candidates available from one particular party, and indicates no further preferences, a "somewhat perverse form of loyalty".
Party loyalty can be measured by observing the proportion of the transferred votes that stays within the party, when votes from one of the party’s candidates have been transferred and at least one other candidate is available to receive transfers. The loyalty of FF voters is still "very substantial" Fine Gael has slightly less party loyalty, and the fluctuations in Fine Gael loyalty is related to the rise and fall of Fianna Fail. Labour loyalty is substantially less than that of the other two main parties.
The evidence for some decline in party loyalty comes from transfers. Transfer patterns indicate that most people who give their first preference vote to a candidate of one party go on to give their subsequent preference to another candidate from that same party when such candidates are available. That is, they appear to vote for parties rather than candidates. However, the structuring power of the party label is not quite as strong as it has been in previous years with the party solidarity of transfers within the two largest parties declining noticeably in the last two elections. This does not necessarily mean that party is any less important as a determinant of the first preference vote, but it does indicate that party less determines the overall preference of voters than before.
Irish political parties have long experience in vote management techniques like
spreading the first preference vote among the party candidates. While this favours the big parties, it can also lead to intra-party factionalism, and Irish political culture is embodied
by a high degree of localism and a large number of independent candidates.
Plumping is a radical form of party loyalty. It occurs when a vote for a party becomes non- transferable in a situation in which all of the candidates of the party in question have been elected or eliminated, but in which the vote could transfer to other parties or candidates and thus potentially affect the outcome of a further seat or seats. Plumping is irrational, in terms of actual outcome, but is psychologically meaningful, as it demonstrates lack of respect or regard for the other rival parties.
In 1948 FF was plumping at about 65%, but by 1992,this had fallen to just over 40%. This is higher than both Fine Gael and the Labour Party, who, in 1948, had a rate of about 30% and 25% respectively. By 1992 these figures had fallen to about 15% and 7% respectively. Plumping is a relatively crude method of gauging party loyalty, as it must be interpreted within the context of specific electoral realities, such as agreements parties may have made with each other, to canvas the electoral to support the parties (as was the case for Fine Gael and Labour in 1973), and the range of candidates available to voters in a given election.
Bibliography
Sinnott, R, 1995, Irish Voters Decide, Manchester University Press.
http://www.math.nus.edu.sg/aslaksen/papers/voting.pdf
http://www.politics.tcd.ie/Staff/Michael.Marsh/LagunaBeach.pdf
Voter Turnout
The percentage of the Irish electorate turning out to vote has been declining over recent decades, a trend which is consistent with voting behaviour in Western Europe. It is a trend that the political establishment sees as a problem, and so has sought the causes of this trend, to better solve it. Political scientists have pointed to the differences between rural and urban areas in turn out. In the 2002 election Dublin South Central had the lowest turnout of 51%, and Cork North West had the highest of 72%. This can be accounted for in the political structures that exist in rural vs. urban areas. Rural areas tend to have deeply established political communities. In contrast, the urban area of the greater Dublin area is largely new, and so the same type of political community doesn’t exist. Furthermore, as many of the inhabitants are not indigenous to the urban area, they do not have as meaningful a relationship with their politicians as their rural counterparts. They may not feel as strongly about local issues as the people who were born there. Other factors play a part in voter turnout. Gender, however is not a significant one, except a small percentage difference between men and women, in their likeliness to vote, with about 14% of men not voting, compared to 8% of women. The age of the voter has a profound effect on turn out, with 28% of people in the 18-25 age group not voting, and a mere 5% of people between 56 and 65 abstaining. A very low level of educational attainment is also associated with non-voting. Electors with an incomplete primary education were highly unlikely to have voted in the elections and referendums of 2001-2002.Overall, consistent non-voters are more likely to be young males with low levels of education. Interestingly, the relationship between non-voting and income is tenuous at best. Whether or not the voter believes his/her vote will make a difference plays an obvious role, as people who feel their vote is insignificant abstain in accordance with this view.
Turnout differs in general, local and European elections, and in referendums. Turnout in general elections are highest. Voters also make the distinction between referendums concerning regime changes, and with what can be seen as religious or moral issue (abortion, divorce etc). There tends to be a greater turnout to vote on moral and religious issues than for referendums concerning the EU, indicating less interest in Ireland’s role in the EU.A distinction must also be made between intentional abstention and circumstantial abstention. In 2002 these figures were 36% and 59% respectively.
Bibliography
Coakley, J and Gallagher, M, 2004,Politics in the Republic of Ireland, Oxon, Routelegde and PSAI Press
http://elearning.ucd.ie/bin/common/course.pl?course_id=_412_1&frame=top (Blackboard)
Determinants of Party Support
Many factors can exert an influence on how the electorate vote, and which party they are inclined to support. This essay will examine some of these factors, and ascertain the significance of their influence on Irish voters.
Most people are first influenced, politically, by their parents, and this influence may determine what party a voter will support. In the INES data was gathered concerning this issue. It was found that when both parents had supported Fianna Fail 86% of respondents felt close to Fianna Fail. When both parents supported Fine Gael, 75% of respondents felt close to Fine Gael. Respondents were four times more likely to support fine Gael if both their parents had done so. Both of the main Irish parties’ supporters inherit this support from their parents.
Social demographic factors play a significant role in determining how the Irish vote. In terms of household income, and education, the least educated, and poorest people support Fianna Fail. Fine Gael supporters are older, and better off, financially. Green voters are generally younger than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael supporters. The way people vote is also influenced by where they live, in terms of rural or urban areas. The more radical parties (SWP, and The Socialist Party) were very unpopular in open countryside, and Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have mostly rural support.
Aspects of social behaviour can have an affect on how people vote. Interestingly, however none of the “economic” behavioural traits (such as trade union membership, self-employment, or public vs. private employment) exert a significant influence. Levels of church attendance and membership of the GAA determine party support. The level of Fianna Fail support declines as the voter’s rate of church going diminishes. Similarly, Fine Gael support is about 75% among churchgoers, and drops to 48% of those who never go to church. Modern voters, who are not members of the GAA or regularly attending church, tend to support Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens. They have better education, and are younger, typically.
These statistics must be taken within the context of growing urbanisation and modernisation that pose a challenge to Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, just as they offer opportunity to the more radical parties. Statistics indicate that at the moment Fianna Fail are coping better with the changing nature of society than Fine Gael. However it is impossible to say with certainty what the future may hold.
Irish Politics: Richard Sinnott
Tutor: Robert O’Rourke
Group 12
Voter Turnout (621 words)
*
Patterns of Vote Transfer (432)
*
Determinants of Party Support (400)
*
Patterns of Vote Transfer
Ireland’s electoral system is that of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote (STV) in multi-seat constituencies. Voters are asked to rank the
candidates in order of preference on the ballot paper. When a candidate is elected on the first count, their transferable papers are divided into sub-parcels according to the second preference. As with all voting systems, certain patterns emerge when the data from various elections is examined. In this brief account, I will attempt to outline some of these, and indicate what their implications are for Irish Politics.
Patterns of transfer voting can measure party loyalty, in two ways. Firstly, in terms of the disposition of voters to transfer their votes within the party. Secondly, in terms of party "plumping”; a process where the voter votes only for the candidates available from one particular party, and indicates no further preferences, a "somewhat perverse form of loyalty".
Party loyalty can be measured by observing the proportion of the transferred votes that stays within the party, when votes from one of the party’s candidates have been transferred and at least one other candidate is available to receive transfers. The loyalty of FF voters is still "very substantial" Fine Gael has slightly less party loyalty, and the fluctuations in Fine Gael loyalty is related to the rise and fall of Fianna Fail. Labour loyalty is substantially less than that of the other two main parties.
The evidence for some decline in party loyalty comes from transfers. Transfer patterns indicate that most people who give their first preference vote to a candidate of one party go on to give their subsequent preference to another candidate from that same party when such candidates are available. That is, they appear to vote for parties rather than candidates. However, the structuring power of the party label is not quite as strong as it has been in previous years with the party solidarity of transfers within the two largest parties declining noticeably in the last two elections. This does not necessarily mean that party is any less important as a determinant of the first preference vote, but it does indicate that party less determines the overall preference of voters than before.
Irish political parties have long experience in vote management techniques like
spreading the first preference vote among the party candidates. While this favours the big parties, it can also lead to intra-party factionalism, and Irish political culture is embodied
by a high degree of localism and a large number of independent candidates.
Plumping is a radical form of party loyalty. It occurs when a vote for a party becomes non- transferable in a situation in which all of the candidates of the party in question have been elected or eliminated, but in which the vote could transfer to other parties or candidates and thus potentially affect the outcome of a further seat or seats. Plumping is irrational, in terms of actual outcome, but is psychologically meaningful, as it demonstrates lack of respect or regard for the other rival parties.
In 1948 FF was plumping at about 65%, but by 1992,this had fallen to just over 40%. This is higher than both Fine Gael and the Labour Party, who, in 1948, had a rate of about 30% and 25% respectively. By 1992 these figures had fallen to about 15% and 7% respectively. Plumping is a relatively crude method of gauging party loyalty, as it must be interpreted within the context of specific electoral realities, such as agreements parties may have made with each other, to canvas the electoral to support the parties (as was the case for Fine Gael and Labour in 1973), and the range of candidates available to voters in a given election.
Bibliography
Sinnott, R, 1995, Irish Voters Decide, Manchester University Press.
http://www.math.nus.edu.sg/aslaksen/papers/voting.pdf
http://www.politics.tcd.ie/Staff/Michael.Marsh/LagunaBeach.pdf
Voter Turnout
The percentage of the Irish electorate turning out to vote has been declining over recent decades, a trend which is consistent with voting behaviour in Western Europe. It is a trend that the political establishment sees as a problem, and so has sought the causes of this trend, to better solve it. Political scientists have pointed to the differences between rural and urban areas in turn out. In the 2002 election Dublin South Central had the lowest turnout of 51%, and Cork North West had the highest of 72%. This can be accounted for in the political structures that exist in rural vs. urban areas. Rural areas tend to have deeply established political communities. In contrast, the urban area of the greater Dublin area is largely new, and so the same type of political community doesn’t exist. Furthermore, as many of the inhabitants are not indigenous to the urban area, they do not have as meaningful a relationship with their politicians as their rural counterparts. They may not feel as strongly about local issues as the people who were born there. Other factors play a part in voter turnout. Gender, however is not a significant one, except a small percentage difference between men and women, in their likeliness to vote, with about 14% of men not voting, compared to 8% of women. The age of the voter has a profound effect on turn out, with 28% of people in the 18-25 age group not voting, and a mere 5% of people between 56 and 65 abstaining. A very low level of educational attainment is also associated with non-voting. Electors with an incomplete primary education were highly unlikely to have voted in the elections and referendums of 2001-2002.Overall, consistent non-voters are more likely to be young males with low levels of education. Interestingly, the relationship between non-voting and income is tenuous at best. Whether or not the voter believes his/her vote will make a difference plays an obvious role, as people who feel their vote is insignificant abstain in accordance with this view.
Turnout differs in general, local and European elections, and in referendums. Turnout in general elections are highest. Voters also make the distinction between referendums concerning regime changes, and with what can be seen as religious or moral issue (abortion, divorce etc). There tends to be a greater turnout to vote on moral and religious issues than for referendums concerning the EU, indicating less interest in Ireland’s role in the EU.A distinction must also be made between intentional abstention and circumstantial abstention. In 2002 these figures were 36% and 59% respectively.
Bibliography
Coakley, J and Gallagher, M, 2004,Politics in the Republic of Ireland, Oxon, Routelegde and PSAI Press
http://elearning.ucd.ie/bin/common/course.pl?course_id=_412_1&frame=top (Blackboard)
Determinants of Party Support
Many factors can exert an influence on how the electorate vote, and which party they are inclined to support. This essay will examine some of these factors, and ascertain the significance of their influence on Irish voters.
Most people are first influenced, politically, by their parents, and this influence may determine what party a voter will support. In the INES data was gathered concerning this issue. It was found that when both parents had supported Fianna Fail 86% of respondents felt close to Fianna Fail. When both parents supported Fine Gael, 75% of respondents felt close to Fine Gael. Respondents were four times more likely to support fine Gael if both their parents had done so. Both of the main Irish parties’ supporters inherit this support from their parents.
Social demographic factors play a significant role in determining how the Irish vote. In terms of household income, and education, the least educated, and poorest people support Fianna Fail. Fine Gael supporters are older, and better off, financially. Green voters are generally younger than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael supporters. The way people vote is also influenced by where they live, in terms of rural or urban areas. The more radical parties (SWP, and The Socialist Party) were very unpopular in open countryside, and Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have mostly rural support.
Aspects of social behaviour can have an affect on how people vote. Interestingly, however none of the “economic” behavioural traits (such as trade union membership, self-employment, or public vs. private employment) exert a significant influence. Levels of church attendance and membership of the GAA determine party support. The level of Fianna Fail support declines as the voter’s rate of church going diminishes. Similarly, Fine Gael support is about 75% among churchgoers, and drops to 48% of those who never go to church. Modern voters, who are not members of the GAA or regularly attending church, tend to support Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens. They have better education, and are younger, typically.
These statistics must be taken within the context of growing urbanisation and modernisation that pose a challenge to Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, just as they offer opportunity to the more radical parties. Statistics indicate that at the moment Fianna Fail are coping better with the changing nature of society than Fine Gael. However it is impossible to say with certainty what the future may hold.