Electoral College Epilogue
This map shows the relative performance of the candidates by state. The bins were placed where there were clear distinctions between groups of states. Thoughts:
- In 2000 and 2004, the "swing" regions consisted of the Industrial Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri. In 2008, there is a new "swing" region: the South Atlantic Coast, including Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The demographics in these regions are rapidly changing--it would be apt to christen this region the "New South" as opposed to the Old South of antiquity.
- The West looks Bluer and Bluer. Without John McCain on the ticket, Arizona is like Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Montana is ripe for plucking, and there have been considerable gains in the Dakotas as well.
- The interior South, by contrast, actually got Redder this cycle. West Virginia, once reliably Blue, is now reliably Red. Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana were all states that Clinton won, but haven't treated Northern Democrats very well. Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma also belong here.
President
TOEV
%PV
Barack Obama
353
52.5
365
52.7
John McCain
185
46.5
173
45.9
Compared with my prediction, Obama carried Indiana, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, for 11+1=12 extra EVs.
Senate
Total
Change
Democrats
57
(+8)
56
(+7)
Republicans
41
(-8)
40
(-9)
Independents
2
(0)
2
(0)
Unresolved
2
(+2)
It took some time, but the Senate has gone exactly as I expected it would. Jim Martin has forced a runoff with Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, one which he will likely lose. Al Franken and Norm Coleman are within 100 votes of each other in Minnesota--I predict Franken will pull this one out by a few hundred votes after the recount is complete.
House
Total
Change
Democrats
253
(+20)
256
(+23)
Republicans
182
(-20)
175
(-27)
Unresolved
4
(+4)
The House went about as expected--my prediction was only ballpark in any event.