The election and the polls
Hey everyone. I just discovered http://www.fivethirtyeight.com and according to stats guru Nate Silver, Obama has a 96.7% chance to win this election. Now the distribution of this information is not in a perfect bell curve, but lets assume it is. That means that within two standard deviations that Obama is likely to win the election. I would be vary vary weary and look closely at the states he loses in if he loses this election. It isn't impossible for McCain to win at this point, but if he does I will suspect voter fraud on a large scale. I'm just saying 96.7% that's a freaking big EDIT: Deal not lead he's only leading by around a 7.84% popular vote. I'm not so silly to think he has that kind of lead, but with a histogram of all of the polls recorded Obama has that much of a chance to win the electorate vote END EDIT. Oh yeah and Obama has an 87% chance at winning Ohio, he only has a 57% chance at winning Missouri. These two states historically always go with the winner. Missouri even more so than Ohio. McCain is likely to take Indiana and West Virginia, but for the first time since 12 years ago voters might actually make a wise decision. What is most amazing about this is that the white people are being polled to support McCain 53% of the time. That means that this election is actually being decided by minorities. That is so cool. Maybe we actually do have a democracy where everyone matters. May this election be the end of white male supremacy. Let us move towards equality, and let us hope that if Obama is elected that he does a good job with the awful situation that currently exists.
Genevieve
Genevieve