more bird flu linkage
First off, although it's not confirmed, the Bangkok Post is reporting that there are 162 Suspected Human Cases of Bird Flu in Kurdistan. It's worth stating that this is just what the Bangkok Post is reporting that al-Hayat is reporting, and a patient being admitted as a suspected case is a long way from being a confirmed case. However, with the way the WHO trumpeted the false negative of Tijan Abdel Qader, who was ultimately confirmed to have died of H5N1, I'm not gonna take any reassurances at face value either.
I missed this story when it came out in December, but apparently the National Medical Association (side note: ... who?) has said that Bush's flu pandemic plan has similar flaws to his Katrina response: it ignores problems minority and low income citizens have in obtaining care. Lovely.
But then, it's not like most people will be able to access appropriate care in the event of a pandemic: U.S. experts expect to be overwhelmed by bird flu. Unfortunately, this is not a surprise. It's a simple matter of looking at our current health care facilities and doing the math.
If there was just a 10 percent infection rate, that would mean 500,000 sick people in the Washington, D.C., area, Hanfling calculated. Some models assume that 20 percent of these people would need to be treated in hospitals.
"We are talking about finding 100,000 places," Hanfling said. "We have 7,800 staffed beds."
And hospitals are already filled to capacity with everyday illnesses.
"We'll still have heart attacks. We'll still have strokes. We'll still have babies to deliver," Hanfling told the meeting.
Pretty much. Even if they delayed elective and semi-elective surgeries and told people with sports injuries to RICE it, that would still leave all the people who needed care urgently for things besides bird flu. And that's gotta be a large percentage of the usual patient load... people don't generally go to the hospital if they don't think it's necessary.
He cited one survey that showed only 66 percent of health care workers would show up for work if they thought patients might infect them. And an expected 25 percent could be out sick themselves, or caring for sick family members.
Only 66%? Ok, yes, 34% is a crippling rate of absenteeism, especially when combined with the 25% out because of illness. (I don't think you can just add the two, because there's bound to be some overlap.) But from a emotional standpoint, I don't know that I could blame them. They'd not only be thinking of themselves, they'd be thinking of their kids and spouses and everyone else they might spread this to if they got sick.
On the bright side...
It's possible a new vaccine could protect even against mutating forms of H5N1. If this holds true in humans, they might be able to produce a vaccine before the start of the pandemic... assuming we have that kind of time. (And as one doctor noted, "You can prove anything in mice.")
A Canadian team has discovered a way to stretch vaccine so you could make a hundred times as many doses out of the same amount. This would be a Very Good Thing, although again, if it takes up to two years to begin human trials, who knows if they'd be able to apply this in the event of an H5N1 pandemic within the next couple years.
I missed this story when it came out in December, but apparently the National Medical Association (side note: ... who?) has said that Bush's flu pandemic plan has similar flaws to his Katrina response: it ignores problems minority and low income citizens have in obtaining care. Lovely.
But then, it's not like most people will be able to access appropriate care in the event of a pandemic: U.S. experts expect to be overwhelmed by bird flu. Unfortunately, this is not a surprise. It's a simple matter of looking at our current health care facilities and doing the math.
If there was just a 10 percent infection rate, that would mean 500,000 sick people in the Washington, D.C., area, Hanfling calculated. Some models assume that 20 percent of these people would need to be treated in hospitals.
"We are talking about finding 100,000 places," Hanfling said. "We have 7,800 staffed beds."
And hospitals are already filled to capacity with everyday illnesses.
"We'll still have heart attacks. We'll still have strokes. We'll still have babies to deliver," Hanfling told the meeting.
Pretty much. Even if they delayed elective and semi-elective surgeries and told people with sports injuries to RICE it, that would still leave all the people who needed care urgently for things besides bird flu. And that's gotta be a large percentage of the usual patient load... people don't generally go to the hospital if they don't think it's necessary.
He cited one survey that showed only 66 percent of health care workers would show up for work if they thought patients might infect them. And an expected 25 percent could be out sick themselves, or caring for sick family members.
Only 66%? Ok, yes, 34% is a crippling rate of absenteeism, especially when combined with the 25% out because of illness. (I don't think you can just add the two, because there's bound to be some overlap.) But from a emotional standpoint, I don't know that I could blame them. They'd not only be thinking of themselves, they'd be thinking of their kids and spouses and everyone else they might spread this to if they got sick.
On the bright side...
It's possible a new vaccine could protect even against mutating forms of H5N1. If this holds true in humans, they might be able to produce a vaccine before the start of the pandemic... assuming we have that kind of time. (And as one doctor noted, "You can prove anything in mice.")
A Canadian team has discovered a way to stretch vaccine so you could make a hundred times as many doses out of the same amount. This would be a Very Good Thing, although again, if it takes up to two years to begin human trials, who knows if they'd be able to apply this in the event of an H5N1 pandemic within the next couple years.