WARNING: Massive spoilers for up to Chapter 61 of the Kuroshitsuji manga
I know we've got about two weeks until the next chapter of the Kuroshitsuji is released, though there's been a few ideas that have been bouncing about in my head since I read the last chapter. Seeing your favorite character get slicy-sliced with the only thing that has been known to kill members of his species will do that. Plus I've been reading a few predictions on the BB forums and reading some concerns voiced on Tumblr also prompted me to do this.
Considering the massive developments that have been going on in the arc so far, it's safe to say many characters have reached a crossroads in the series and their roles will never be the same from here on. Not to mention pretty much every character at this point who is still on the Campania is in massive amounts of peril either because they've been badly hurt already, there are several characters who want to kill them, or they're just mortal and they're on a sinking ship full of zombies. There's a good possibility some regular characters might get killed off entirely. So with that in mind and considering Yana's plotting trends thus far, I have come up with a list of characters and the percentage of chance they have of surviving.
This list of predictions is only for characters who are still on the Campania. Snake and Lizzie went on the lifeboat so this assumes they're going to be ok. However this does not take into consideration that Yana might be planning for something to happen to that lifeboat, though right now we'll just assume that if they're off the boat, they're out of action for now.
One of the main assumptions with this list is that Yana isn't afraid of killing off characters, however it's a matter of what character she kills and what part they had in the plotline.The vast majority of characters who have been permanently offed were the antagonists/villains of specific story arcs. Most of them were killed in such a way that you felt their humanity, but still they were mostly the antagonists set up specifically for that arc. There has been a very sparse amount of named characters who were relatively innocent and killed for plot purposes. I don't recall (rightly or wrongly) a significant character in the manga who died as the hero or complete innocent. Vincent and Rachel Phantomhive are the only ones I can think of but their deaths were quintessential to the base plot. Since this is just factoring in the manga, Abberline's death in the anime doesn't count. The characters who have been killed usually just appeared in that one story arc and they seem to be for that arc only.
Big example of this is Madam Red. Yes she was Ciel's Aunt and she was a tragic and sympathetic character who died horribly, however she was introduced specifically for the Ripper plotline and her death was part of the end of that plotline. Another example is the Circus arc; all of the members of the circus except Snake were killed. In all these cases, these characters were introduced for a specific purpose and were killed off when that purpose was filled. Huge exceptions for both these arcs are Grell and Snake. Both of them were kept alive and Yana has since found further plot uses for them. The popularity of a character will oftentimes have an impact on an author's decision to keep him or her around and there have been numerous stories from authors who said they considered killing off a character only to keep him or her alive because of the reception. This mostly holds true for arc-based plots and not sweeping storylines (example: L in Death Note, insanely popular character but the overall plot called for his death). However if the storyline still requires their death it will happen, though usually only when the character has served their entire purpose and the author has no further ideas or use for them.
Grell probably should have been killed at the end of the Ripper arc, but I think Yana wanted to keep him around because he was such an interesting character, or maybe because he was popular and she thought of more things to do with him. Maybe because his death would be too predictable so she had William save him and they went off into the dark alley, whether she had plans to use Grell later or not. Granted she didn't use him for a few years, but she did find a part for him in the current plot (though I'll get to more on Grell later.) Snake is another example; it seems as if she kept him around for a further purpose if not just to be another interesting member of the regular cast, or because the Circus Arc was popular she kept him around as a part of that.
To sum it up: Yana will kill characters but only when their purpose is filled in the story. There is a possibility that she might take a character's popularity into some consideration, though if a character has served its purpose that's it.
In this arc Yana seems to be going for a huge drama and suspense factor that shows no character is safe in this plot; mortal or immortal, all of them can die. Whether the suspense factor will be taken out to an actual character death remains to be seen, but the likelihood is the majority of these characters will survive to everyone's relief.
With that in mind, who will or won't be making it out of the Campania arc alive with percentage likelihood that they will survive the arc.
Sebastian Michaelis- 99.999...%
Last we saw Sebastian took full brunt of Undertaker's scythe to the point where his cinematic record released. It's unclear what exact impact death scythes can have on demons or even on Sebastian, but he was looking pretty bad. However Sebastian is one of the main characters and it doesn't seem like Yana's ending the series. Plus he seems to show new ways of surviving the impossible and being a badass (or a Gary Stu depending on your interpretation), it's almost a running gag at this point. This is just one of them. Plus the "Sebastian is dead" plot was already explored to the nth degree in the last arc so I doubt Yana will go there.
Ciel Phantomhive- 99.995...%
Little Ciel has a broken ankle, might have an asthma attack soon, and last we checked Undertaker had just hurled him from the balcony and we see him falling from a wounded Sebastian's reach. Heartbreaking and suspenseful yes, but it's almost a given he's going to survive. This is probably leading us to more suspenseful moments and a dramatic rescue ending with Ciel continuing to be the smug little bastard he usually is or leaving with some more emotional scars, or even some -gasp- appreciation for some people. Like Sebastian, Ciel is one of the main characters and it doesn't look like Yana is ending the series. The only way he is going to die is if Yana has something else up her sleeve that involves something supernatural (a la boxchan) or something else that also involves him coming back.
Grell Sutcliff- 80-90%
Grell had just gotten a nasty swipe to the chest from Undertaker's death scythe and he was looking pretty hurting, not to mention there is now a fallen balcony and all its contents that is now on the same patch of floor he and Ron were on. Grell isn't one of the main characters, in fact he's a villain of a previous arc that Yana kept alive for whatever reason. Compared to Sebastian and Ciel he is fair game for getting offed. However I think it is extremely unlikely that Yana means to kill him off entirely. She could have just brought him back because he was popular and found a nice convenient way to get rid of him. However Yana seems to be having too much fun playing with him; she talks about him quite a bit on her blog and does a lot of little sketches of him. It also seems like she is giving him a lot of personality threads that she could have too much fun exploring (his transgenderism, his love for Will, etc.) This sounds like a character she likes enough to keep around and not permanently close the door on any future appearances. Plus Grell is probably one of the most if not the most popular characters in the series; killing off a character of this level of popularity without a very good plot purpose is seen as kind of a dick move on an author's part that arouses a lot of ire from readers. An example I'm aware of is R.A. Salvatore; in the Hunter's Blades Trilogy, Innovindil was a strong companion that helped stabilize Drizzt and gave him a big reason to stop being so emo. In the first book of the next trilogy, she appears for one page and dies when her Pegasus crashes into a tree. Granted she was a side character who served her purpose but a lot of fans thought this was kinda not cool. Grell's injury and overall situation was probably played up for dramatics (a device I like using in my fics like A LOT), however this was a very popular character the author seems to like playing with that was just reintroduced to the story a few chapters ago, killing him off in the next few chapters does not seem likely unless there is a dramatic twist.
Ronald Knox- 75-80%
Ronald had the same fate as Grell in the previous chapter, in fact he looked a little more bloody. Plus he's younger than Grell and that might mean not as resilient. We met Ron briefly at the end of the Circus arc and this arc has been his only time in the spotlight, which might mean he's even more fair game plotwise; maybe he was meant to be an arc-specific character, i.e. fodder. However he has been a hero and might come out of this very heroically. Plus Yana seems to like playing with him a bit too. He is a bit more fair game than Grell and his role in the story has been more compact, but I don't see him getting outright offed. I see him and Grell pulling through and ending the arc as close friends, maybe even sharing the same scars (that might also be similar to Undertaker's, I'll get to that in a bit). I can see Yana bringing him back for another purpose.
Note: A little note though on that crashing balcony and our two injured reapers, I took a second look at the panel where the balcony is crashing and it almost looks like those two are not on that same spot of floor as everything comes crashing down. This might be wishful thinking and unintelligent speculation, however it must be remembered that reapers have the ability to shift their position in an instant (Grell did this in that famous scene where he appears behind Sebastian in the Ripper arc and Undertaker created the drama with Sebastian and Ciel by doing this). Even if they are badly injured, I can imagine Grell and Ron still have this ability. They know they're injured and they know that balcony is going to come crashing down so they make an immediate retreat either to another part of the room or another part of the ship. Grated this might be done with the last of their energy but it's for an emergency.
Viscount Druitt- 50%
Last we saw him he admitted a major role in the zombie outbreak, everyone wanted to kill him, and Grell almost did until Undertaker intervened. Druitt was a serious troublemaker in the Ripper arc, but he got off to be the comic relief in the Curry Arc. Now he's back as another villain though the circumstances are much more serious. Druitt's fate is hard to predict. He is a minor character who just proudly announced a share of responsibility for the entire zombie debacle, hence he's a major target. However Druitt's gotten off before and it was revealed he wasn't responsible for the zombies themselves, just played a part in their transport for his own purposes. Yana could be ready to kill him off, though he could get away again and return later; meaning she could either keep up the running gag by keeping him alive or could just end him right here. That and after the "Let's kill him" chapter, actually killing him might be predictable, though if Undertaker is the one who does him in that might be a different story.
Frances, Alexis, and Edward Middleford- 50% each
Lizzie's parents and brother are all still on the sinking ship and fighting zombies like good British knights. Frances is Ciel's last living aunt and we did see her briefly in the filler chapter at the end of the Ripper arc. Alexis and Edward were just introduced in this arc. All of them are minor characters who are mostly arc specific. This isn't even mentioning how much Lizzie has to lose (or more characterization to gain) with them in this position. Lizzie losing an immediate family member would be a huge impact to her character, it could transform her character completely after the massive twist we just saw. She might become like Ciel or might grow up really, really fast. Having Ciel lose one of his last blood relatives would be huge for him too and put him closer to Lizzie as she is his last remaining kin. Then again that's the set up and that's the drama factor; that could also be the massive sigh of relief when they get off the ship safely and are reunited with Lizzie, ready for involvement in future arcs. It could go any way for any of the Middleford's, whether all together or one at a time.
Undertaker- 35%
The goofy, creepy, and mysterious side character who Ciel (and Vincent) went to for information has now been revealed as a powerful rogue reaper responsible for the creation of the zombies, thus making him the antagonist/villain of this arc. Undertaker just introduced the business-end of his scythe to Grell, Ron, and Sebastian and launched Ciel off a balcony. This might be one side character who's time has come. Yana got extensive use of him in previous arcs and now most mysteries surrounding him have been obliterated, he is now a dangerous foe who just delivered a massive amount of hurt to the vast majority of the cast. Unless he does something majorly heroic that makes him look better than he does now, his side character role has been smashed to pieces and he is completely open for getting killed off. There will be no more visits to his shop trading information for laughs. If the reapers don't drag him back to their bosses, he'll definitely get killed or go back to the queen. It's very likely that this dramatic twist will result in a dramatic death for Undertaker whether Sebastian does it, Grell and Ron do it, or all three together finally working together. I see the playing of his Cinematic Record with his life as a reaper (maybe even explaining the whole "Claudia P" thing and how he got his scars) and him going down in a heap. If, and this is a big if, he got the scars from a run-in with another reaper, maybe the whole "I went to great effort to keep this scythe" story, wouldn't it just complete the circle if he gave similar scars to Grell and Ron before he was killed. If he's kept alive, it will likely be under the same circumstances as Grell; his old role is gone but he will remain a possible threat. Though compared to Grell's butler role, Undertaker was the innocent side character a lot longer and Yana might have activated his intended use and do away with him. Though something might turn and he might be collectively allowed to live for whatever reason.
Ryan Stoker- 15-25%
Ryan was at the center of the whole mess, everyone hates him, he just learned his work was all for naught and he was only exploited by Druitt and Undertaker, and Ron and Grell saw something of interest related to him in the death list. Ryan is an arc-specific character and a sort of antagonist, plus he's a mortal on a sinking ship, not to mention two reapers aw him mentioned in a death list. In all likelihood, Ryan is a goner. However wouldn't it be just an interesting twist if he actually survives and Ciel finds use for him later. Just because he's mentioned in the death list doesn't mean he's actually on it.
Depending on what happens next chapter, I'll probably do some kind of update and maybe re-aim my predictions. Or I'll just post with how my predictions were proven wrong, or brag because I called something. Stay tuned.