Now I get what you meant by "blessing in disguise" and it makes perfect sense. It's a confirmation that the decision to leave was the right one.
But, because bouncing ideas back and forth with you is so much fun, I'll try to defend my case. :)
You're right to say that they didn't know a lot about the cylons capabilites. They were certainly caught by surprise and they had no way of predicting that old ships and technology would be their best defense. But, at that time, they knew enough to expect the worst at all times. The cylons had somehow managed to destroy 12 planets, kill billions of people, incapacitate dozens (?) of fully armed, trained, state of the art battlestars, all that in one single, perfectly orchestrated attack. That meant that, whatever the especifics of their capabilities were, they had a phenomenal war machine and the odds were clearly against them. By that time he already knew that the more modern ships had been easily destroyed and that the cylons had won with hardly no resistance whatsoever and had logically suffered very few losses. Therefore, it is only reasonable to expect their attack after detection to be imminent - they had belic power and didn't seem to be engaged in fighting colonial ships (which had already been defeated) so their raiders were probably trying to locate and destroy survivors.
And I'm not confident that Lee would have defied her authority if she made the wrong choice here
I don't think he would have done it either. After all, his suggestion was the most logical one (and it turned out to be only good one) but the cylons hadn't arrived yet, so, there was still room for wishful thinking. The decision to stay then would have been unwise but not absurd. Unlike the first decision to stay. The cylons were already there. They had nukes while they had no weapons. I have no idea what went through Roslin's mind when she decided to stay. It was suicide, really. And that would have been the perfect moment for Lee to decide to disobey her orders no matter how much he supported democracy and all. I think the writers wanted to create suspense and angst (Adama thought Lee had died...). The only explanation I find for Lee's easy acceptance of that order was the fact that he believed that despite the fact the strategy he used hadn't worked in war college simulations, it still seemed doable to him (after all, the simulations were created by colonial experts who knew nothing of cylon capabilities or strategies themselves. Perhaps it was simple and not technologically advanced enough to have a chance at working when, unlike they would have believed before the war, more advanced technology had failed.
But, at that time, they knew enough to expect the worst at all times.
Yes, I think you've hit the nail on the head, there. And that was basically Lee's argument, as I recall. We can't afford to assume that we have room to risk delay, because if we lose, we lose everything. Exactly. It's kind of amazing to me to think that it was that decision which saved the entire fleet which constitutes the human race for the rest of the series. I believe the only survivors were the ones that made that jump. Well, they found a few more scattered survivors later, like the Pegasus crew and the resistance fighters on Caprica, but for all practical purposes the FTL ships Lee and Roslin saved in that moment became the whole human race. Thank you, Lee, for winning that argument!
And I'm in complete agreement with you about the suicidal craziness of Roslin's initial decision when the first Raiders were approaching Colonial One. I guess I understand what she thought the gesture meant -- sort of like the British royals who refused to leave Buckingham Palace during the bombing raids on London during the World Wars, she wanted to stand or fall with her people -- but honestly, it was a hopeless and therefore unjustifiable sacrifice, and she was going to take the whole ship down with her. Thank you again, Lee, for coming up with an impossible save, there! I agree that the writers designed the situation based on angst more than logic (such a surprise!), but I think your explanation of Lee's perspective -- that he at least thought he had a doable strategy -- makes as much sense as can be made of it.
Plus, he had just been insisting to his father that they had to recognize civilian leadership in the midst of war ("you're taking orders from a schoolteacher?!"), so I'm not all that surprised that he didn't execute a complete one-eighty and deny the principle he had just been defending. Maybe a bit of old-fashioned Adama stubbornness played into the way he handled that ethical dilemma as well, and made him more willing to take a chance on an untried strategy :) Plus, as kdbleu pointed out earlier, Lee was only beginning to be placed in situations where he had to seriously question orders; defying the person he regarded as the lawful authority would have come very hard for him this early in his development as a leader. Even when he does defy the President, in Bastille Day, he defies her with the law.
So, to sum up, yay Lee. Good thinking. Way to save the human race, my friend.
And, along with you and kdbleu, I've also noticed that he's kind of hawt. So really, what's not to love?
decision to leave was the right one.
But, because bouncing ideas back and forth with you is so much fun, I'll try to defend my case. :)
You're right to say that they didn't know a lot about the cylons capabilites. They were certainly caught by surprise and they had no way of predicting that old ships and technology would be their best defense. But, at that time, they knew enough to expect the worst at all times. The cylons had somehow managed to destroy 12 planets, kill billions of people, incapacitate dozens (?) of fully armed, trained, state of the art battlestars, all that in one single, perfectly orchestrated attack. That meant that, whatever the especifics of their capabilities were, they had a phenomenal war machine and the odds were clearly against them. By that time he already knew that the more modern ships had been easily destroyed and that the cylons had won with hardly no resistance whatsoever and had logically suffered very few losses. Therefore, it is only reasonable to expect their attack after detection to be imminent - they had belic power and didn't seem to be engaged in fighting colonial ships (which had already been defeated) so their raiders were probably trying to locate and destroy survivors.
And I'm not confident that Lee would have defied her authority if she made the wrong choice here
I don't think he would have done it either. After all, his suggestion was the most logical one (and it turned out to be only good one) but the cylons hadn't arrived yet, so, there was still room for wishful thinking. The decision to stay then would have been unwise but not absurd. Unlike the first decision to stay. The cylons were already there. They had nukes while they had no weapons. I have no idea what went through Roslin's mind when she decided to stay. It was suicide, really. And that would have been the perfect moment for Lee to decide to disobey her orders no matter how much he supported democracy and all. I think the writers wanted to create suspense and angst (Adama thought Lee had died...). The only explanation I find for Lee's easy acceptance of that order was the fact that he believed that despite the fact the strategy he used hadn't worked in war college simulations, it still seemed doable to him (after all, the simulations were created by colonial experts who knew nothing of cylon capabilities or strategies themselves. Perhaps it was simple and not technologically advanced enough to have a chance at working when, unlike they would have believed before the war, more advanced technology had failed.
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Yes, I think you've hit the nail on the head, there. And that was basically Lee's argument, as I recall. We can't afford to assume that we have room to risk delay, because if we lose, we lose everything. Exactly. It's kind of amazing to me to think that it was that decision which saved the entire fleet which constitutes the human race for the rest of the series. I believe the only survivors were the ones that made that jump. Well, they found a few more scattered survivors later, like the Pegasus crew and the resistance fighters on Caprica, but for all practical purposes the FTL ships Lee and Roslin saved in that moment became the whole human race. Thank you, Lee, for winning that argument!
And I'm in complete agreement with you about the suicidal craziness of Roslin's initial decision when the first Raiders were approaching Colonial One. I guess I understand what she thought the gesture meant -- sort of like the British royals who refused to leave Buckingham Palace during the bombing raids on London during the World Wars, she wanted to stand or fall with her people -- but honestly, it was a hopeless and therefore unjustifiable sacrifice, and she was going to take the whole ship down with her. Thank you again, Lee, for coming up with an impossible save, there! I agree that the writers designed the situation based on angst more than logic (such a surprise!), but I think your explanation of Lee's perspective -- that he at least thought he had a doable strategy -- makes as much sense as can be made of it.
Plus, he had just been insisting to his father that they had to recognize civilian leadership in the midst of war ("you're taking orders from a schoolteacher?!"), so I'm not all that surprised that he didn't execute a complete one-eighty and deny the principle he had just been defending. Maybe a bit of old-fashioned Adama stubbornness played into the way he handled that ethical dilemma as well, and made him more willing to take a chance on an untried strategy :) Plus, as kdbleu pointed out earlier, Lee was only beginning to be placed in situations where he had to seriously question orders; defying the person he regarded as the lawful authority would have come very hard for him this early in his development as a leader. Even when he does defy the President, in Bastille Day, he defies her with the law.
So, to sum up, yay Lee. Good thinking. Way to save the human race, my friend.
And, along with you and kdbleu, I've also noticed that he's kind of hawt. So really, what's not to love?
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