World Series Win Probability Added
This is just for the World Series itself. Maybe I'll run it for the entire playoffs at some point.
But basically, given two teams of equal strength, you can easily the "leverage" of a game - the difference in the win probability of a win and a loss. Given that and the WPA of players within a game, you can calculate the WSWPA of a player. Shocking nobody, the "leverage" is highest for game 7, 3-3, game 6, 3-2, game 5, 2-2, and so forth.
I ran the numbers for the current World Series, and Matsui was rightfully the MVP:
H Matsui 0.2523125
C Lee 0.1806875
J Damon 0.123375
A Rodriguez 0.121375
M Rivera 0.091625
A Pettitte 0.07425
P Feliz 0.0676875
D Marte 0.0588125
C Sabathia 0.0414375
R Madson 0.0376875
C Utley 0.0344375
J Posada 0.031375
C Park 0.0270625
C Ruiz 0.0256875
S Eyre 0.01925
N Swisher 0.016125
A Burnett 0.0148125
A Aceves 0.0065
J Werth 0.0035625
E Hinske 0.0035
D Jeter 0.002375
J Molina -0.0018125
B Bruney -0.0034375
P Coke -0.006125
M Teixeira -0.008875
B Myers -0.0105
S Victorino -0.011625
J Happ -0.01225
P Hughes -0.01325
E Bruntlett -0.0135
J Hairston -0.016625
M Stairs -0.0214375
D Robertson -0.023625
J Chamberlain -0.033625
M Cabrera -0.0375625
J Rollins -0.0455625
C Durbin -0.05
B Gardner -0.05325
B Francisco -0.05825
J Blanton -0.081375
R Ibanez -0.0878125
R Howard -0.0889375
P Martinez -0.11225
C Hamels -0.13125
R Cano -0.140125
B Lidge -0.17025
Matsui is responsible, by himself, a quarter of the World Series win. On the other end, poor Lidge gave away more than 1/6 of the World Series, and Cano is not far behind, which is not shocking if you were paying attention. And while Utley's power display was impressive, it wasn't even close, though there were whispers of giving it to Utley..
But basically, given two teams of equal strength, you can easily the "leverage" of a game - the difference in the win probability of a win and a loss. Given that and the WPA of players within a game, you can calculate the WSWPA of a player. Shocking nobody, the "leverage" is highest for game 7, 3-3, game 6, 3-2, game 5, 2-2, and so forth.
I ran the numbers for the current World Series, and Matsui was rightfully the MVP:
H Matsui 0.2523125
C Lee 0.1806875
J Damon 0.123375
A Rodriguez 0.121375
M Rivera 0.091625
A Pettitte 0.07425
P Feliz 0.0676875
D Marte 0.0588125
C Sabathia 0.0414375
R Madson 0.0376875
C Utley 0.0344375
J Posada 0.031375
C Park 0.0270625
C Ruiz 0.0256875
S Eyre 0.01925
N Swisher 0.016125
A Burnett 0.0148125
A Aceves 0.0065
J Werth 0.0035625
E Hinske 0.0035
D Jeter 0.002375
J Molina -0.0018125
B Bruney -0.0034375
P Coke -0.006125
M Teixeira -0.008875
B Myers -0.0105
S Victorino -0.011625
J Happ -0.01225
P Hughes -0.01325
E Bruntlett -0.0135
J Hairston -0.016625
M Stairs -0.0214375
D Robertson -0.023625
J Chamberlain -0.033625
M Cabrera -0.0375625
J Rollins -0.0455625
C Durbin -0.05
B Gardner -0.05325
B Francisco -0.05825
J Blanton -0.081375
R Ibanez -0.0878125
R Howard -0.0889375
P Martinez -0.11225
C Hamels -0.13125
R Cano -0.140125
B Lidge -0.17025
Matsui is responsible, by himself, a quarter of the World Series win. On the other end, poor Lidge gave away more than 1/6 of the World Series, and Cano is not far behind, which is not shocking if you were paying attention. And while Utley's power display was impressive, it wasn't even close, though there were whispers of giving it to Utley..