Obama Wins!, End/Start of an Era, Senate Races, FOX News, Dirty Campaigning, 2012, Voting, Quiz

Nov 05, 2008 01:07

This marks the end of the "Reagan-Gingrich-Bush" era, circa 1980-2008. (Technically it lasts until 2009, but there's not much Bush can do at this point as the lamest of lame ducks.)  It also marks the start of what presumably is the "Obama era."

Three people are primarily responsible for what happened tonight.
  • First, of course, is Barack Obama. His campaign team gets equal credit, but he chose them. We can only hope he will choose as well for his governing staff. A president is only as strong as the people he surrounds himself with.
  • Second is Howard Dean. A lot of people forget the near revolt in the Democratic Party when Dean became chairman, and insisted on a "50-state" strategy. Most wanted to focus on the battleground states, but Dean wanted to spend money and resources in all 50 states, to expand the Democratic base. The best way to expand a party is to get people interested during a campaign, and he did that - and the result is Obama won or competed in "red" states all over the country. He broke the red-blue state impasse, and now there are few safe states for Republicans. He did for the Democrats what Ronald Reagan did for the Republicans so long ago, but he did him one better. Reagan won because of the "Reagan Democrats." Obama won because he converted so many people into just plain "Democrats."
  • Third is George W. Bush. Where would the Democrats be right now without him?!!!

At I write this (around 1AM), Obama leads 338-160, and has won 26 states to McCain's 20. The four states still to be decided are Missouri (11 electoral votes, leaning McCain), North Carolina (15 electoral votes, leaning Obama), Indiana (11 electoral votes, leaning McCain) and Montana (3 electoral votes, leaning Obama, which is a surprise). They are worth 40 electoral votes. Obama is up about 3% in the popular vote (51%-48%), less than expected, but there's a lot of west coast votes to be counted, and they should bring him up quite a bit.

Senate/House races: As I write this (about 1AM), the Democrats have 56 seats, the Republicans 40. They will likely win in Alaska (Begich over Stevens the felon) and in Oregon (Merkley over Smith), and likely lose in Georgia (Martin over Chambliss), though if they keep Martin under 50% there's a runoff. The really interesting one is in Minnesota, where Democrat and former comedian Al Franken is in a tight race with Republican Norm Coleman.

After her sickening ads, I'm very happy that Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole lost in NC to Democrat Kay Hagan.

In the House, currently the Democrats are up 239-155, with 41 still undecided. They will probably win a majority of those 41.

FOX News: I spent the night surfing between all the news programs. FOX consistently called each race first, while CNN was always the most cautious and so called them last. FOX also was very good at the various Senate race updates, while other channels focused more on the president's race. However, it never took much watching of FOX before I'd roll my eyes and change the channel. The first time I went there I almost fell out of my chair when they were talking about how Obama "had a chance in Virginia." Have a chance? He was a solid favorite! (He won, 52%-48%.) The second time I was there they were talking about all the expected tax increases "for regular people" if Obama won. After that, I could barely watch them for more than a few seconds at a time.

FOX was the first to call Ohio for Obama, not that being first is good. (They were also the first to call the election for Bush in 2000 - about a month early!) They called it at 9:19 PM, and that (with Pennsylvania already called for Obama) essentially ended the race. Technically, there was still a thin path to victory for McCain until Colorado was called for Obama a little later, but his chances before that were a fraction of 1%.

Dirty Campaigning: All day today there were robo-calls going on in Southern Florida, telling people that Fidel Castro of Cuba had endorsed Obama, so vote for McCain to thwart Castro. And it's perfectly legal! (I can't wait to do something like that in my novel, which covers the election for president of Earth in the year 2100.)

The 2012 election has officially begun! (I quickly duck as rotten fruit is thrown at me.) Will Obama face a primary challenge from Hillary? (Probably not, unless he really messes up.) Who will the Republicans choose? Sarah Palin? Mitt Romney? Mike Huckabee? Bobby Jindal? How about Jeb Bush?

How I spent 30 minutes voting. I've voted in every election since 1980, and there's never been a line that I remember. This time I was in line for exactly 30 minutes--and this was in Maryland, a non-battleground state. Fortunately I brought a book: "The 101 Habits of Highly Successful Novelists," which I strongly recommend if you are a novelist or novelist wannabe.

Yesterday's Quiz Question: Which first lady was known for her liking for what strange flavor of ice cream?

Answer: Dolly Madison liked oyster ice cream. Yuck!!!

Today's Quiz Question: Name the only president who studied medicine.

*****
76 Days Until the Inauguration!
1464 Days Until the Next Presidential Election (Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012)!
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