a pretty safe bet
this is what happened four years ago:
we basically ended up with - (GOP + 34EV)
in forty-eight days i think this a conservative estimate of what will happen:
(DEM : 252) / (GOP : 286)
(IA + 7) (IA -7)
(CO + 9) (CO - 9)
(NM + 5) (NM - 5)
(DEM : 273) / (GOP : 265)
i don't doubt that there could possibly be other traditionally GOP states or GOP-leaning swing states that could go for obama (i.e. ohio, indiana, nevada, virginia, north carolina, florida???). of which, if obama gets ohio, historically mccain is sunk. i think all that talk about mccain winning michigan, wisconsin or minneasota is just that, talk. obama won two out of three in the primaries - minneasota & wisconsin, by large margins (yes luis, we remember he didn't win michigan).
nor do i think pennsylvania will swing to the mccain camp. i predict it will shy away from the 'western frontier' image caricature embodied by palin and instead find more congruity with the self-described "scrappy kid from scranton", joe biden.
but iowa, colorado and new mexico are very likely to swing to obama this year. first you have iowa, where obama won the lead-off iowa caucus, compared to mccain who skipped iowa altogether to focus on new hampshire. this left mccain playing catch-up in staff, organizing, grass roots, etc (last poll - Obama +11).
secondly colorado, for many great reasons. despite having some of the most conservative parts of the country (socially conservative - colorado springs & fiscally conservative - greeley), colorado has fairly recently become the 'youngest' state, boasting the highest percentage of young voters in country, who disproportionately support obama. colorado has a popular dem governor & senator, along with an open senate seat up for election this year in which the dem candidate is strongly favored to win, which will hopefully boost turnout. this former red state is looking to go 'all blue' this year (last poll - Obama +10).
last new mexico, like colorado has changing demographics and a lot of the same factors likely to boost turnout: a popular democratic governor and former presidential candidate that strongly supports obama, a popular senator & an open senate seat (last poll - Obama + 8).
basically, to all the people who are freaked by the last two weeks of mccain being on top, don't be. even while mccain enjoyed his post-convention bounce in the nation-wide polls, the polls in these three states were largely unchanged. our system is that weird, quirky electoral college afterall. and whether it's that awesome outcome in 1960 or that awful outcome in 2000, the electoral college will sometimes tip the election to the popular vote runner-up...
but that's not going to happen this time! just keep an eye on that electoral college calculus is all...
also, there's only 48 days left and the economic woes we've seen this week have definitely shifted the message away from oil drilling & foreign policy to economics and have swung support back to obama. pending some sort of 'october surprise', i assume it's too late in the game to change too much from here on.
afterall this is an election where we've already seen two natural disasters (gustav & ike), russia invade another country and the financial collapse of wall street. what else could happen???
we basically ended up with - (GOP + 34EV)
in forty-eight days i think this a conservative estimate of what will happen:
(DEM : 252) / (GOP : 286)
(IA + 7) (IA -7)
(CO + 9) (CO - 9)
(NM + 5) (NM - 5)
(DEM : 273) / (GOP : 265)
i don't doubt that there could possibly be other traditionally GOP states or GOP-leaning swing states that could go for obama (i.e. ohio, indiana, nevada, virginia, north carolina, florida???). of which, if obama gets ohio, historically mccain is sunk. i think all that talk about mccain winning michigan, wisconsin or minneasota is just that, talk. obama won two out of three in the primaries - minneasota & wisconsin, by large margins (yes luis, we remember he didn't win michigan).
nor do i think pennsylvania will swing to the mccain camp. i predict it will shy away from the 'western frontier' image caricature embodied by palin and instead find more congruity with the self-described "scrappy kid from scranton", joe biden.
but iowa, colorado and new mexico are very likely to swing to obama this year. first you have iowa, where obama won the lead-off iowa caucus, compared to mccain who skipped iowa altogether to focus on new hampshire. this left mccain playing catch-up in staff, organizing, grass roots, etc (last poll - Obama +11).
secondly colorado, for many great reasons. despite having some of the most conservative parts of the country (socially conservative - colorado springs & fiscally conservative - greeley), colorado has fairly recently become the 'youngest' state, boasting the highest percentage of young voters in country, who disproportionately support obama. colorado has a popular dem governor & senator, along with an open senate seat up for election this year in which the dem candidate is strongly favored to win, which will hopefully boost turnout. this former red state is looking to go 'all blue' this year (last poll - Obama +10).
last new mexico, like colorado has changing demographics and a lot of the same factors likely to boost turnout: a popular democratic governor and former presidential candidate that strongly supports obama, a popular senator & an open senate seat (last poll - Obama + 8).
basically, to all the people who are freaked by the last two weeks of mccain being on top, don't be. even while mccain enjoyed his post-convention bounce in the nation-wide polls, the polls in these three states were largely unchanged. our system is that weird, quirky electoral college afterall. and whether it's that awesome outcome in 1960 or that awful outcome in 2000, the electoral college will sometimes tip the election to the popular vote runner-up...
but that's not going to happen this time! just keep an eye on that electoral college calculus is all...
also, there's only 48 days left and the economic woes we've seen this week have definitely shifted the message away from oil drilling & foreign policy to economics and have swung support back to obama. pending some sort of 'october surprise', i assume it's too late in the game to change too much from here on.
afterall this is an election where we've already seen two natural disasters (gustav & ike), russia invade another country and the financial collapse of wall street. what else could happen???