Oscar Picks 2019
The telecast starts at 6 PST. I have now seen 16 of the nominated films (51%) including all eight best picture nominees, accounting for 71% of the nominations (not counting short films, documentaries, or foreign films unless they are nominated in other categories, as four of them are). Here are my thoughts:
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
This is a hard field to grapple with. I will be happy if the winner comes from one of these three: ROMA, BLACK PANTHER, or THE FAVOURITE.
Very close to breaking into this tier are BLACKkKLANSMAN and A STAR IS BORN. If turns out to be the latter, I will be extremely happy for Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga, two very talented people working outside their comfort zone and exposing their hearts in a beautiful film, which I believe has already become very important for families touched by severe alcoholism and suicide. I loved the inside peeks at the entertainment business--especially the view from behind the stage out into the crowds. It also has a very messy third act in which the narrative control goes all to hell. I think there might have been editing problems?
A STAR IS BORN is also arguably the only film out of the eight to valorize white America. Sure, we drink too much and have problems with domestic violence, but we're decent people, dang it. Love us for our flaws! I feel like you don't have to look back very far to find years where all or nearly all of the Best Picture nominees would have fit this profile, but ASIB is the only one up in 2019, in which the leading filmmakers and their subjects aren't even from the United States.
I just saw BLACKkKLANSMAN the day before yesterday, and if the measure of a good film is does this shake you? Does it mess with your head and punch you in the gut?--then BLACKkKLANSMAN is a very good film with sprightly pacing that doubles as a good thriller and dark comedy.
GREEN BOOK is a helluva entertaining picture. If it wins, it will forever be known as "Driving Mr. Mahershala." Learn all about the harms of racism while being entertained by stereotypes about Italians and Southerners! I endorse it as a night at the movies--especially for Viggo Mortensen fans!--but not for Best Picture.
I can't believe that there weren't two nominees to be found more deserving than BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and VICE. The former is not a good movie (and believe me--I love Queen more than most people. That may be the problem!); the latter is an ingenious polemic with great performances, but, I don' t know. Call me old-fashioned. I guess I believe that Best Picture winners should be for all Americans, not just committed partisans. My rule for judging this kind of movie is, would I rather watch this than a good documentary about the same material? In this case, the answer is perhaps, which is not good enough for Best Picture.
How do I choose between ROMA, BLACK PANTHER, and THE FAVOURITE? What a strange moment in cinema history this is. All three films seem like unlikely Best Picture winners. ROMA is a massive achievement by Alfonso Cuarón; a story that simultaneously feels intensely personal and like a master class on what is possible to do with cinema without using CGI. In that way, it's the anti-Black Panther! But it is also an intensely localized film in Mexico by a Mexican director. THE FAVOURITE is a demented, super-sized art film about early 18th century British monarchy, made by a Greek director who I will affectionately call radical and experimental (and blessed by genius). Not your usual profile for mainstream Hollywood acclaim.
BLACK PANTHER--well. It's a blockbuster that has made $700 million. It's built around a movie formula that is both predictable and shopworn. But to set this story in Africa with these designs and actors and filmmakers is revolutionary. The skills and smarts and that went into this production specifically are very impressive, and those that have gone into a whole line of Marvel Studios productions since IRON MAN (2008). Is it my favorite Marvel superhero movie? No, that's CAPTAIN AMERICAN: CIVIL WAR (2016), closely followed by THOR: RAGNAROK (2017). But that may be a function of where I come from and where I live.
While I would be happy if any of these three win, my weak order of preference is ROMA, BLACK PANTHER, and THE FAVOURITE. All three of these films are crucial to understand the moment in cinema we are in, in a world that is becoming more international and far less beholden to the traditional views and proclivities of old Hollywood.
Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Viggo Mortensen, and Bradley Cooper were all great, all essential viewing. I haven't seen Willem Dafoe's movie. The most WTF-I-don't-understand-how-this-coud-have-happened performance is Christian Bale's.
Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I haven't seen Melissa McCarthy's performance, but I was very impressed by each of the other women. These are strong acting fields! In particular, I think THE WIFE has not gotten the respect it deserves as a whole for the brilliance of that film, which in my view belongs in the Best Picture category. The winner here is clear though. Yalitza Aparicio! Have you seen ROMA? You should.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
This is harder. I have seen all five performances. I pick Emma Stone, for brilliantly anchoring THE FAVOURITE (hers was the lead performance, not Olivia Coleman's).
Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Adam Driver impressed me a lot in BlacKkKlansman. Getting that part right requires subtlety, not fireworks. Mahershala Ali is second. Could have been first if his part was written better, although I can't forget his "stop the car" monologue. Did he learn to play piano for the film? Does anyone know?
Directing
BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee
Cold War, Paweł Pawlikowski
The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay
Gotta be Cuarón for ROMA. I think Alfonso set out in part to remind his peers about what a good director can do when he made this movie.
Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters
Some of the screenplays on this list had serious problems (I'm looking at you, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK). I haven't seen CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? I have a lot of love for the screenplay for BLACKkKLANSMAN, but good gosh--THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS!!!!! I need to watch that again.
Original Screenplay
The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay
Despite not ending well, THE FAVOURITE was an extremely tight screen play that did the exposition and plotting exceptionally well, while convincingly reimagining history. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, I am not worthy.
Foreign Language Film
Capernaum, Lebanon
Cold War, Poland
Never Look Away, Germany
Roma, Mexico
Shoplifters, Japan
I've only seen one of these, but it's ROMA in a walk, right?
Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I've had that damn Spider-Man song stuck in my head for weeks. The only other film I saw in this category is INCREDIBLES 2, which is well done but too easily forgotten. SPIDER-MAN!
Original Score
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK has a lovely score.
Original Song
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Obviously this category belongs to "Shallow," and it should. The BUSTER SCRUGGS song is funny and perfect in the film.
Documentary Short
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
I didn't see any of these.
Cinematography
Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique
It has to be ROMA. Just look at that thing! If not for ROMA, I would be tempted to throw some love to A STAR IS BORN here. The cinematography in THE FAVOURITE is very distinctive and stylized and, to use the cliche, "like a character in the film"--so that's also a valid choice.
Best Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
I haven't seen any of these.
Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
BLACK PANTHER. This is a film where production design is extremely important, and I think it spills over to movements like Afrofuturism and I'm just so happy about the design work in BLACK PANTHER.
Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Sound mixing? I really noticed the foley artists in ROMA; such a quiet film with a surprising number of songs credited at the end that you don't quite notice. ROMA!
Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Very strong category this year. It's between BLACK PANTHER and THE FAVOURITE and I can't think of two recent movies that had more irresistible costume design.
Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Let's call it BLACKkKLANSMAN. That picture really moves.
Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
I haven't seen A QUIET PLACE, but I assume it has exquisite sound editing.
Animated Short Film
Animal Behavior
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
I only saw BAO, and I didn't love it.
Live Action Short
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
I haven't seen any of these.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
I only saw VICE but I believe it is richly deserving in this category.
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
I pick AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR! What a cliffhanger.
Happy watching!
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
This is a hard field to grapple with. I will be happy if the winner comes from one of these three: ROMA, BLACK PANTHER, or THE FAVOURITE.
Very close to breaking into this tier are BLACKkKLANSMAN and A STAR IS BORN. If turns out to be the latter, I will be extremely happy for Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga, two very talented people working outside their comfort zone and exposing their hearts in a beautiful film, which I believe has already become very important for families touched by severe alcoholism and suicide. I loved the inside peeks at the entertainment business--especially the view from behind the stage out into the crowds. It also has a very messy third act in which the narrative control goes all to hell. I think there might have been editing problems?
A STAR IS BORN is also arguably the only film out of the eight to valorize white America. Sure, we drink too much and have problems with domestic violence, but we're decent people, dang it. Love us for our flaws! I feel like you don't have to look back very far to find years where all or nearly all of the Best Picture nominees would have fit this profile, but ASIB is the only one up in 2019, in which the leading filmmakers and their subjects aren't even from the United States.
I just saw BLACKkKLANSMAN the day before yesterday, and if the measure of a good film is does this shake you? Does it mess with your head and punch you in the gut?--then BLACKkKLANSMAN is a very good film with sprightly pacing that doubles as a good thriller and dark comedy.
GREEN BOOK is a helluva entertaining picture. If it wins, it will forever be known as "Driving Mr. Mahershala." Learn all about the harms of racism while being entertained by stereotypes about Italians and Southerners! I endorse it as a night at the movies--especially for Viggo Mortensen fans!--but not for Best Picture.
I can't believe that there weren't two nominees to be found more deserving than BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and VICE. The former is not a good movie (and believe me--I love Queen more than most people. That may be the problem!); the latter is an ingenious polemic with great performances, but, I don' t know. Call me old-fashioned. I guess I believe that Best Picture winners should be for all Americans, not just committed partisans. My rule for judging this kind of movie is, would I rather watch this than a good documentary about the same material? In this case, the answer is perhaps, which is not good enough for Best Picture.
How do I choose between ROMA, BLACK PANTHER, and THE FAVOURITE? What a strange moment in cinema history this is. All three films seem like unlikely Best Picture winners. ROMA is a massive achievement by Alfonso Cuarón; a story that simultaneously feels intensely personal and like a master class on what is possible to do with cinema without using CGI. In that way, it's the anti-Black Panther! But it is also an intensely localized film in Mexico by a Mexican director. THE FAVOURITE is a demented, super-sized art film about early 18th century British monarchy, made by a Greek director who I will affectionately call radical and experimental (and blessed by genius). Not your usual profile for mainstream Hollywood acclaim.
BLACK PANTHER--well. It's a blockbuster that has made $700 million. It's built around a movie formula that is both predictable and shopworn. But to set this story in Africa with these designs and actors and filmmakers is revolutionary. The skills and smarts and that went into this production specifically are very impressive, and those that have gone into a whole line of Marvel Studios productions since IRON MAN (2008). Is it my favorite Marvel superhero movie? No, that's CAPTAIN AMERICAN: CIVIL WAR (2016), closely followed by THOR: RAGNAROK (2017). But that may be a function of where I come from and where I live.
While I would be happy if any of these three win, my weak order of preference is ROMA, BLACK PANTHER, and THE FAVOURITE. All three of these films are crucial to understand the moment in cinema we are in, in a world that is becoming more international and far less beholden to the traditional views and proclivities of old Hollywood.
Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Viggo Mortensen, and Bradley Cooper were all great, all essential viewing. I haven't seen Willem Dafoe's movie. The most WTF-I-don't-understand-how-this-coud-have-happened performance is Christian Bale's.
Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I haven't seen Melissa McCarthy's performance, but I was very impressed by each of the other women. These are strong acting fields! In particular, I think THE WIFE has not gotten the respect it deserves as a whole for the brilliance of that film, which in my view belongs in the Best Picture category. The winner here is clear though. Yalitza Aparicio! Have you seen ROMA? You should.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
This is harder. I have seen all five performances. I pick Emma Stone, for brilliantly anchoring THE FAVOURITE (hers was the lead performance, not Olivia Coleman's).
Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Adam Driver impressed me a lot in BlacKkKlansman. Getting that part right requires subtlety, not fireworks. Mahershala Ali is second. Could have been first if his part was written better, although I can't forget his "stop the car" monologue. Did he learn to play piano for the film? Does anyone know?
Directing
BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee
Cold War, Paweł Pawlikowski
The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay
Gotta be Cuarón for ROMA. I think Alfonso set out in part to remind his peers about what a good director can do when he made this movie.
Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters
Some of the screenplays on this list had serious problems (I'm looking at you, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK). I haven't seen CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? I have a lot of love for the screenplay for BLACKkKLANSMAN, but good gosh--THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS!!!!! I need to watch that again.
Original Screenplay
The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay
Despite not ending well, THE FAVOURITE was an extremely tight screen play that did the exposition and plotting exceptionally well, while convincingly reimagining history. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, I am not worthy.
Foreign Language Film
Capernaum, Lebanon
Cold War, Poland
Never Look Away, Germany
Roma, Mexico
Shoplifters, Japan
I've only seen one of these, but it's ROMA in a walk, right?
Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I've had that damn Spider-Man song stuck in my head for weeks. The only other film I saw in this category is INCREDIBLES 2, which is well done but too easily forgotten. SPIDER-MAN!
Original Score
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK has a lovely score.
Original Song
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Obviously this category belongs to "Shallow," and it should. The BUSTER SCRUGGS song is funny and perfect in the film.
Documentary Short
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
I didn't see any of these.
Cinematography
Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique
It has to be ROMA. Just look at that thing! If not for ROMA, I would be tempted to throw some love to A STAR IS BORN here. The cinematography in THE FAVOURITE is very distinctive and stylized and, to use the cliche, "like a character in the film"--so that's also a valid choice.
Best Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
I haven't seen any of these.
Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
BLACK PANTHER. This is a film where production design is extremely important, and I think it spills over to movements like Afrofuturism and I'm just so happy about the design work in BLACK PANTHER.
Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Sound mixing? I really noticed the foley artists in ROMA; such a quiet film with a surprising number of songs credited at the end that you don't quite notice. ROMA!
Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Very strong category this year. It's between BLACK PANTHER and THE FAVOURITE and I can't think of two recent movies that had more irresistible costume design.
Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Let's call it BLACKkKLANSMAN. That picture really moves.
Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
I haven't seen A QUIET PLACE, but I assume it has exquisite sound editing.
Animated Short Film
Animal Behavior
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
I only saw BAO, and I didn't love it.
Live Action Short
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
I haven't seen any of these.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
I only saw VICE but I believe it is richly deserving in this category.
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
I pick AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR! What a cliffhanger.
Happy watching!