Investments in 2015
The biggest question in 2015 is how much interest rates will (or can) be raised?
The challenge which financial regulators face is formidable.
- not raising interest rates could result in further addiction to the cheap money, plus balance sheets of central banks are growing...
- asset bubbles due to low interest rates like UK Housing Market
- degree of inflation or deflation is uncertain, but likely to be low.
- high inflation will force rates raise anyway, but due to how all things connected is not clear why would inflation spike now
- likely scenario is low inflation, small rates raise and further build up of debt
- watch oil, if it goes back where it was it would be equal to the inflation spike and higher interest rates
- lower oil could mean deflation in EU, defaults on debt by oil industry and potentially some issues with liquidity
- any significant interest rates raise would mean distress to markets, regulators would try to postpone it as long as possible
- Greece is back to destroy EU money markets. EU to drop in Q1 at least.
- Best investment from 2015 - Russia. Yes, this is a possible value trap, but unless there is institutional failure due to military actions, which is very unlikely, the market would recover in 1-2 years.
Neptune Russia and Greater Russa over one year
The challenge which financial regulators face is formidable.
- not raising interest rates could result in further addiction to the cheap money, plus balance sheets of central banks are growing...
- asset bubbles due to low interest rates like UK Housing Market
- degree of inflation or deflation is uncertain, but likely to be low.
- high inflation will force rates raise anyway, but due to how all things connected is not clear why would inflation spike now
- likely scenario is low inflation, small rates raise and further build up of debt
- watch oil, if it goes back where it was it would be equal to the inflation spike and higher interest rates
- lower oil could mean deflation in EU, defaults on debt by oil industry and potentially some issues with liquidity
- any significant interest rates raise would mean distress to markets, regulators would try to postpone it as long as possible
- Greece is back to destroy EU money markets. EU to drop in Q1 at least.
- Best investment from 2015 - Russia. Yes, this is a possible value trap, but unless there is institutional failure due to military actions, which is very unlikely, the market would recover in 1-2 years.
Neptune Russia and Greater Russa over one year