Who's sitting P&J out this year?

Dec 17, 2012 18:39

Dave over on Tumblr:

I like voting in it - stayed on board for the Jackin’ Pop year (voted in both polls) and have thought about staying on this year, since for better or worse it’s the only huge critics poll. Glenn McDonald is still doing stats, which alone kind of makes me want to participate. Just wondering if anyone is staging a parallel poll ( Read more... )

cumulative advantage, paul krugman, idolator and p&j and country critics, poll prelims 2012

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 15:33:43 UTC
Here's a power law graph of "ranking of popularity" (with a long tail) that I filched from Wikipedia:



I don't know if P&J results fall under a power law, and I barely know any math anymore and couldn't tell you what a power law is. Wikip: "If the frequency (with which an event occurs) varies as a power of some attribute of that event (e.g. its size), the frequency is said to follow a power law. For instance, the number of cities having a certain population size is found to vary as a power of the size of the population, and hence follows a power law," the word "power" meaning squared, cubed, taken to the fourth power, taken to the fifth power, etc. If the number of cities varies as a power of the size of the population, you'll get (this is from Wikip's entry on "Rank-size distribution") a large city "with other cities decreasing in size respective to it, initially at a rapid rate and then more slowly. This results in a few large cities, and a much larger number of cities orders of magnitude smaller." You find something like that with radio play, Website hits, and, I assume, Pazz & Jop voting, though again I don't know if these exactly follow power laws or just look like they do at a glance. But way more acts will get six votes than will get twelve votes, way more will get twelve than eighteen, and so on. This is how these things tend to work, and even if everyone searched and voted with the great seeking that you do, the result would still be a small number of acts with a lot of votes and a lot of acts with a small number of votes. If you vote "Gangnam Style," "Merry Go Round," and a bunch of Dev and K-pop and metal that only a handful or fewer of ilXors vote for, and a lot of other people vote "Gangnam Style," and some other people vote "Merry Go Round," and then their votes scatter along their idiosyncratic interests, we'll look at the poll results and say, "Everyone's copying each other and voting for 'Gangnam Style.'"

(My guess is that "Thinkin Bout You" wins, but I'm hardly the one who's paying attention to this. "Gangnam Style" and "Call Me Maybe" will do reasonably well, but there'll likely be a few respecto-soul or respecto-indie or ambitious-sounding hip-hop tracks that'll edge them out, as there often are, though I have no idea what they are this year or if I'm right this time. Kendrick Lamar? Miguel?)

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping skyecaptain December 19 2012, 19:22:23 UTC
I think it will likely be "Gangnam Style" or "Call Me Maybe." Frank Ocean will split votes between "Thinkin Bout You" and "Pyramids." Grimes will probably split votes between "Genesis" and "Oblivion" (would have pegged "Genesis," which got a lot of indie/alternative/college airplay this year, but Pfork just voted "Oblivion" #1). Kendrick Lamar will probably place top ten for (if I had to guess) "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe" (which will get lots of votes from people voting for album tracks from their fave albums). Miguel's "Adorn" will do well, and I would guess that Usher's "Climax" might do OK.

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 20:50:38 UTC
will probably place top ten for (if I had to guess) "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"
'Cause it's the Lamar that sounds most like it was produced by Grimes?

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping skyecaptain December 19 2012, 21:17:33 UTC
I've never actually heard it! Haven't listened to Kendrick Lamar yet. I think most of my positive discoveries are fairly spontaneous (i.e. I listen to things my friends listen to because it's in my frame of reference from hanging around friends, not because I'm thinking "I must learn to like what my friends like," though that might be some part of it) but my ignorances are often deliberate reactions to stuff that other people are talking about in ways that put me off. I do quite like the Grimes album in a "bubbling under my top twenty" sort of way, though.

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 21:55:01 UTC
I recommend Lamar, though I haven't heard the album yet. He employs sound filtering that sounds accidentally (I assume) similar to indie (think he's trying to evoke dope and alcohol haze, not indie distance; also think he's ambivalent about the moral value of livin' the haze). Here are a couple of good ones:

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 23:09:13 UTC
Think another big single could be that boring Gotye hit I can never remember the name of. And wouldn't be shocked if singles by Alabama Shakes and Mumford & Sons (both of whose tepid albums should also do real well with more trad daily paper hack types) place in the Top 10.

By the way, Frank, here's a long review of the Mumford & Sons album I wrote for Spin, in case you never saw it:

http://www.spin.com/reviews/mumford-and-sons-babel-gentlemen-of-the-roadglassnote

And while I'm at it, an even longer review of the new Ke$ha album:

http://www.spin.com/reviews/kesha-warrior-rca

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 23:20:25 UTC
Any guesses as to how Sleigh Bells'll do? I'm not tuned in enough to know, but it seems as if this year's album, which is better (or at least not worse) than their first, has been getting a lot less attention. Was surprised how many had a tepid response to "Demons" on the Jukebox (though the Jukebox are a small, always shifting, not typical sample).

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping skyecaptain December 20 2012, 02:39:33 UTC
Sleigh Bells will probably be in the top 40, but no songs or album making any waves. Figures that when they click with me everyone else has moved on to the next thing -- but I'm not seeing them show up in year-ends, and I don't think they speak to the "silent minority" of people who will probably vote for the new Dylan and Springsteen (and maybe Leonard Cohen) albums into the top 20-30. Forgot that Gotye will likely get counted from last year's votes and do pretty well, probably top twenty in singles.

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 20 2012, 22:09:53 UTC
Didn't read this (and doubt the headline is true), but somebody just linked to this on my facebook feed.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikebarthel/sleigh-bells-made-the-most-underrated-album-of-201

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping skyecaptain December 21 2012, 02:28:12 UTC
Good essay from dickmalone but the headline is misleading. Mostly just talks about the album's narrative and returning to it throughout the year.

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping skyecaptain December 19 2012, 19:25:48 UTC
Tried to get all the way through the Frank Ocean album again today and found it to be a real chore. When it wins, it will probably be the most boring record to win since 2006, or maybe the TVOTR win in 2008. (Aside from their first EP I think TVOTR is the most consistently boring band on the planet.) Or Animal Collective in 2009, though that one's not so much "boring record" as "bad record getting inexplicable acclaim" (and I liked Animal Collective a few albums prior).

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 19:39:25 UTC
I liked hunks of the 2006 winner:

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 20:26:31 UTC
Forgot about "Oblivion," which is pretty mere compared to 2011's "Vanessa," which I placed on my long list. "Oblivion" is interesting as an Everlys/Del Shannon/Beatles melody put under restraints and behind a filter, which maybe is necessary so that it doesn't sound empty and regressive altogether. And no doubt many people find the restraint deeply moving. But there's a chasm of achievement between Evs/Shannons/Beatles and this stuff, which lacks the old stuff's thrill and outrageous beauty. Meanwhile, for new stuff, I've got Shinsadong Tiger, hence a new Ev-Shan-Beatle, just for the taking. Of course, from what I know of Grimes' taste,* she's got Shinsadong Tiger, too.

*But I've yet to click on that Grimes interview you linked on Tumblr.

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 19 2012, 23:17:31 UTC
I think I got through both the Ocean album and the Miguel album twice sometime in the summer or fall, paid at least perfunctory attention but couldn't hear at all what the big deal was, and moved on. Best I could tell, and I'm probably way off on this, they reminded me of mid/late '80s starting-to-go-downhill Prince, only not as good. Especially Miguel, who seemed to have a lot of "Raspberry Beret" tweeness in him. Got the idea that he's a better singer than Ocean, but neither of them seemed all that great at it.

Didn't even get through the Kendrick Lamar album when I tried last month. Maybe half of it. Though maybe (at least Frank's post suggests this) I just wasn't listening for the right things. But really (and something Dave said here mirrored this I think), these kind of overwhelming critic favorite albums just seem like work to try to get into (and actually, most hip-hop albums since the '90s have also seemed like worth to get into for me, so I've got a double blindspot there.) Though at least I tried with these three albums, which is more than I can say for, say, Fiona Apple.

Saw 15 minutes of Japandroids live at SXSW, and that told me all I needed to know about them. Ick.

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Re: Chuck Pazzing And Jopping koganbot December 20 2012, 01:43:10 UTC
overwhelming critic favorite albums just seem like work to try to get into

Which is to say that I'm kind of at the point in my career when, if I'm going to listen to something primarily out of professional duty, I kind of want to get PAID for it.

most hip-hop albums since the '90s have also seemed like worth to get into for me

Like WORK, I meant...And I still like plenty of them (and love even more singles), but to be honest I don't even return to those great old Eminem and Ying Yang and Mannie Fresh and Trick Daddy albums much. If at all. Though I did find a cool double-vinyl copy of Field Mob's From The Roota To The Toota in a dollar bin this year. Not as good as my memory thought it was, but not bad.

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