The Doomer Perspective
I know that a fair number of the people who listen to the C-Realm Podcast for the "mind-blowing" stuff scratch their heads and shrug at the amount of attention that I pay to peak oil, agriculture, and, increasingly, economics. Of course, the physical realities of living in a post-peak America is compelling as all get-out for those who take the time to think it through, but this is only a portion of what keeps me coming back to this topic. It's a lot like climate change (existential threat, or " the eugenics of our time?") in that, whatever position you're inclined to take, you can find people who obviously spend a lot more time thinking about this stuff than you do who have a dog and pony show complete with data and graphics to support whatever point of view best fits the totality of your pre-existing ideological commitments.
For example, two perspectives on Peak Oil. First up, theheretic explains why we're frakked!
http://community.livejournal.com/peak_oil/712074.html?style=mine#cutid1 We've seen protests and riots over fuel prices in Portugal, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the UK over the last few weeks. This is only the beginning of troubles. As the prices rise thanks to production falling, the blame game will continue, and further irrational public behavior will worsen. The public have resolutely refused to grasp that oil is ancient energy and it WILL run out. Right now, our leaders here in the USA point fingers to delay tactics, like offshore drilling, domestic discoveries (which would have already been exploited if they were remotely as big or easy as these non-geologists like to claim). ANWR? That's 45 DAYS of oil supply. That's it. If you saved it for US-only consumption, you can stretch it to around 6 months of oil supply. Better than nothing... only it takes 5 years to reach the marketplace. All those pipelines and wells and sideways drilling takes TIME, and by 5 years from now, the price of oil will be around $500/bbl. and something like $20/gal, well beyond the means of humble lower and middle class users to buy. Only the rich will be burning $500 oil.
On the other side of the coin:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/14695 In 1965, world oil production was 12 billion barrels. It may peak soon at 30 billion. Estimates project that in 2040, production will have slipped to 12 billion barrels-back to 1965 levels. To descend to that point would require a drop in consumption of 2.2% per year for 35 years. Can we do this? I think so. From 1973 to 1975, and again from 1979 to 1983, consumption fell by roughly this much per year. When prices fell, consumption rose again. For a glimpse of the future, note that when gasoline prices briefly spiked 30% due to Hurricane Katrina, US usage dropped 6% over two weeks. Saving 2.2% each year is well within reach.
I've exchanged a couple of emails with Toby Hemenway, the author of the second quote, and I may be getting together with him in tele-space in August to talk about the psychology of catastrophe fetishism. If you had him on the phone, are their any questions you'd like to put to him?
For example, two perspectives on Peak Oil. First up, theheretic explains why we're frakked!
http://community.livejournal.com/peak_oil/712074.html?style=mine#cutid1 We've seen protests and riots over fuel prices in Portugal, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the UK over the last few weeks. This is only the beginning of troubles. As the prices rise thanks to production falling, the blame game will continue, and further irrational public behavior will worsen. The public have resolutely refused to grasp that oil is ancient energy and it WILL run out. Right now, our leaders here in the USA point fingers to delay tactics, like offshore drilling, domestic discoveries (which would have already been exploited if they were remotely as big or easy as these non-geologists like to claim). ANWR? That's 45 DAYS of oil supply. That's it. If you saved it for US-only consumption, you can stretch it to around 6 months of oil supply. Better than nothing... only it takes 5 years to reach the marketplace. All those pipelines and wells and sideways drilling takes TIME, and by 5 years from now, the price of oil will be around $500/bbl. and something like $20/gal, well beyond the means of humble lower and middle class users to buy. Only the rich will be burning $500 oil.
On the other side of the coin:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/14695 In 1965, world oil production was 12 billion barrels. It may peak soon at 30 billion. Estimates project that in 2040, production will have slipped to 12 billion barrels-back to 1965 levels. To descend to that point would require a drop in consumption of 2.2% per year for 35 years. Can we do this? I think so. From 1973 to 1975, and again from 1979 to 1983, consumption fell by roughly this much per year. When prices fell, consumption rose again. For a glimpse of the future, note that when gasoline prices briefly spiked 30% due to Hurricane Katrina, US usage dropped 6% over two weeks. Saving 2.2% each year is well within reach.
I've exchanged a couple of emails with Toby Hemenway, the author of the second quote, and I may be getting together with him in tele-space in August to talk about the psychology of catastrophe fetishism. If you had him on the phone, are their any questions you'd like to put to him?