Опрос экспертов о шансах кандидатов на республиканскую номинацию
Еще раз возвращаясь к шансам кандидатов на номинацию. Любопытный опрос republican insiders (то есть экспертов, осведомленных людей) от National Journal. Им было предожено выбрать пять кандидатов и дать каждому от 1 до 5 баллов в зависимости от их шансов на номинацию. Результаты получились такими. Вопреки ранним опросам многие осведомленные эксперты продолжают утверждать, что у Поленти и Хантсмана шансов куда больше, чем у более рейтинговых кандидатов, скажем, Пэйлин или даже Кейна. Ну а лидирует, разумеется, Ромни. Я бы тоже примерно так оценил, разве что удивляет много голосов в пользу губернатора Техаса Рика Перри: это настолько неудачный кандидат на основные выборы, что с трудом верится, что республиканская элита может на него поставить.
Rank the top five candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of who you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Republicans
(103 votes) CANDIDATE INSIDERS INDEX SCORE* Mitt Romney 88 Tim Pawlenty 76 Jon Huntsman 35 Rick Perry 26 Michele Bachmann 13 Sarah Palin 13 Newt Gingrich 12 Chris Christie 11 Herman Cain 7 Rudy Giuliani 4 Also receiving an index rating: Rick Santorum and Jeb Bush, 2 percent; Ron Paul and Paul Ryan, 1 percent; Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, and none, less than 1 percent. *Methodology: In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each contender received out of the maximum possible. For example, Mitt Romney scored an Index rating of 88, meaning he received 88 percent of the possible 515 points, the number he would have if all 103 participants in the poll this week had ranked him first.
Rank the top five candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of who you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Republicans
(103 votes) CANDIDATE INSIDERS INDEX SCORE* Mitt Romney 88 Tim Pawlenty 76 Jon Huntsman 35 Rick Perry 26 Michele Bachmann 13 Sarah Palin 13 Newt Gingrich 12 Chris Christie 11 Herman Cain 7 Rudy Giuliani 4 Also receiving an index rating: Rick Santorum and Jeb Bush, 2 percent; Ron Paul and Paul Ryan, 1 percent; Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, and none, less than 1 percent. *Methodology: In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each contender received out of the maximum possible. For example, Mitt Romney scored an Index rating of 88, meaning he received 88 percent of the possible 515 points, the number he would have if all 103 participants in the poll this week had ranked him first.