NBA Notes: Fantasy Jumps, Drops
The NBA regular season is just around the corner, and with it of course comes fantasy leagues of all sorts and from all sorts of sites! Getting a LeBron James is a godsend, and picking people like Dirk, D-Wade and Shawn Marion are no-brainers. But what about your midlevel players? 9th-12th picks? Good personnel gets harder to find as the picks go lower, especially in a league with 10 or more players. Here are five of my jumpers and five of my droppers for the mid-to-low-level players.
(*My choices are based on leagues with 8 or 10 players. Depending on your league size, move up or down accordingly. )
TEN JUMPERS
1. Peja Stojakovic, NO/OkC -- People have Peja pegged as a late 4th round pick, but look for a jump in his numbers this year that could propel him upwards. He is the only true shooter the Hornets have, and he'll get a truckload of threes to hoist this year. Taking a gamble early? Nab him in the 3th. He won't go lower than his numbers last year (19 ppg, 6 rpg, 40% 3PT with Indy).
2. JR Smith, Denver -- Like Peja, a change of scenery will do good. He can run with the Nuggets, and last season he improved his outside shooting to 37%. If Smith keeps up the good stroke from outside, he'll get a lot of looks and shots. He only averaged 7 points, 2 boards and a dime last year; with a good showing, who knows? He couldn't crack rosters last year, so he'll be available late. 11th to 12th, or as early as 10th.
3. Monta Ellis, Golden State -- Monta who? Don't know him? Now you will. The Warriors cleared Derek Fisher from their roster to provide more growing space for Ellis, who will back Baron Davis this year. Ellis averaged 6.8 points, 2.1 boards and 1.6 assists in just 18 minutes a game. Those number translate to 9.4, 3.0 and 2.2 with 25 minutes. If Davis' ankles give way (again), you know who's getting the starting nod. Keep tabs on this guy.
4. Danny Granger, Indiana -- No more Artest, no more Stojakovic. It's Granger time. The young stud was a solid 7-and-5, and averaged an assist, 0.7 steals and 0.8 blocks per game... as a sixth man. This guy could become an all-around contributor with starter minutes. Does he get the start over Marquis Daniels, though? If he does, watch out. Get him as early as the 7th round.
5. Kwame Brown, LA Lakers -- No, don't spill your drink just yet. Sure, the guy was a dud for his entire career... that is, until the last eight games he played in April. in 32 minutes per game, he averaged 12 points, 8 rebounds, and shot 56% from the field. Wouldn't Phil Jackson love those number night in and night out! Wouldn't you? If you're stumped in your 11th pick, it wouldn't be a bad idea to gamble on him.
FIVE TEAR DROPS
1. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia -- Fantasy owners, myself included, loved his uber-solid contributions (12 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg, 2 spg!), but were frustrated that A.I.2 never broke out -- he only had nine games where he scored 20 or more. And now a talented kid named Rodney Carney is playing on the opposite wing. Iggy Pop will still have a solid year, but you have to wonder if his numbers are going to jump up any.
2. Bonzi Wells, Houston -- Bonzi had a stellar showing in Sacto last year, averaging 13.6 points and 7.7 boards in 52 games. However, he'll now be playing alongside two superstars who need the feeds, not to mention that he's not even sure of cracking the starting five yet. Points will remain pretty even, but expect minutes and rebounds to slip a notch.
3. Baron Davis, Golden State -- Don Nelson will take over the reins in the Bay Area, but what can you do when your point guard is a walking accident waiting to happen? That's BD these days. The question is not "if" he'll get injured, it's "when". His stock has dropped steadily over the past two years, and it's still on the decline.
4. Mike James, Minnesota -- Don't get me wrong; I think Mike James' last season was no fluke. But then again, he was playing for the lowly Toronto Raptors, so someone had to step up aside from Chris Bosh. But do you think that alongside Kevin Garnett and Ricky Davis, James will still average 20 ppg? Didn't think so. Still a good grab, but don't expect surprises.
5. Zach Randolph, Portland -- Since his career year in the 2003-04 season, Zach's numbers have been on a decline, although a very slight one. But the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy could be the start of a new movement for Portland -- one without Randolph in the picture. If Zach's play gets a boost because he wants to prove something, then good for you. But over the stretch of 82 games? What do you think?
(*My choices are based on leagues with 8 or 10 players. Depending on your league size, move up or down accordingly. )
TEN JUMPERS
1. Peja Stojakovic, NO/OkC -- People have Peja pegged as a late 4th round pick, but look for a jump in his numbers this year that could propel him upwards. He is the only true shooter the Hornets have, and he'll get a truckload of threes to hoist this year. Taking a gamble early? Nab him in the 3th. He won't go lower than his numbers last year (19 ppg, 6 rpg, 40% 3PT with Indy).
2. JR Smith, Denver -- Like Peja, a change of scenery will do good. He can run with the Nuggets, and last season he improved his outside shooting to 37%. If Smith keeps up the good stroke from outside, he'll get a lot of looks and shots. He only averaged 7 points, 2 boards and a dime last year; with a good showing, who knows? He couldn't crack rosters last year, so he'll be available late. 11th to 12th, or as early as 10th.
3. Monta Ellis, Golden State -- Monta who? Don't know him? Now you will. The Warriors cleared Derek Fisher from their roster to provide more growing space for Ellis, who will back Baron Davis this year. Ellis averaged 6.8 points, 2.1 boards and 1.6 assists in just 18 minutes a game. Those number translate to 9.4, 3.0 and 2.2 with 25 minutes. If Davis' ankles give way (again), you know who's getting the starting nod. Keep tabs on this guy.
4. Danny Granger, Indiana -- No more Artest, no more Stojakovic. It's Granger time. The young stud was a solid 7-and-5, and averaged an assist, 0.7 steals and 0.8 blocks per game... as a sixth man. This guy could become an all-around contributor with starter minutes. Does he get the start over Marquis Daniels, though? If he does, watch out. Get him as early as the 7th round.
5. Kwame Brown, LA Lakers -- No, don't spill your drink just yet. Sure, the guy was a dud for his entire career... that is, until the last eight games he played in April. in 32 minutes per game, he averaged 12 points, 8 rebounds, and shot 56% from the field. Wouldn't Phil Jackson love those number night in and night out! Wouldn't you? If you're stumped in your 11th pick, it wouldn't be a bad idea to gamble on him.
FIVE TEAR DROPS
1. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia -- Fantasy owners, myself included, loved his uber-solid contributions (12 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg, 2 spg!), but were frustrated that A.I.2 never broke out -- he only had nine games where he scored 20 or more. And now a talented kid named Rodney Carney is playing on the opposite wing. Iggy Pop will still have a solid year, but you have to wonder if his numbers are going to jump up any.
2. Bonzi Wells, Houston -- Bonzi had a stellar showing in Sacto last year, averaging 13.6 points and 7.7 boards in 52 games. However, he'll now be playing alongside two superstars who need the feeds, not to mention that he's not even sure of cracking the starting five yet. Points will remain pretty even, but expect minutes and rebounds to slip a notch.
3. Baron Davis, Golden State -- Don Nelson will take over the reins in the Bay Area, but what can you do when your point guard is a walking accident waiting to happen? That's BD these days. The question is not "if" he'll get injured, it's "when". His stock has dropped steadily over the past two years, and it's still on the decline.
4. Mike James, Minnesota -- Don't get me wrong; I think Mike James' last season was no fluke. But then again, he was playing for the lowly Toronto Raptors, so someone had to step up aside from Chris Bosh. But do you think that alongside Kevin Garnett and Ricky Davis, James will still average 20 ppg? Didn't think so. Still a good grab, but don't expect surprises.
5. Zach Randolph, Portland -- Since his career year in the 2003-04 season, Zach's numbers have been on a decline, although a very slight one. But the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy could be the start of a new movement for Portland -- one without Randolph in the picture. If Zach's play gets a boost because he wants to prove something, then good for you. But over the stretch of 82 games? What do you think?