[USA] Poll Follow-Up
Now for a follow-up to this poll:
Previously, I asked you to consider whether any of the following statements were TRUE for you. Then to count up the number of true statements.
* I am NOT currently registered to vote at my present address.
* I did NOT vote in 2004 (presidential election year).
* I did NOT vote in 2002.
* I have NEVER voted in a presidential primary before 2008.
* I do NOT believe that it is every citizen's duty to vote.
* My vote does NOT matter.
For one person, 3 of the 6 statements were true. (4.5% of responders)
For two people, 2 of the 6 statements were true. (9.1% of responders)
For eight people, only one statment was true. (36.4% of responders)
and for eleven people, no statements were true. (50% of responders)
I then asked you to post a comment telling me whether you planned to vote.
It is important in pre-polls to survey the opinions of those peolpe who will actually come out and vote on primary day. Interestingly, Gallup Resesarch (a major pre-poll operator), would not have processed surveys from half of you. Because if you answer "yes" to even one of those questions, Gallup considers you "not likely to vote". Hence, they feel your opinion is irrelevant, and they should spend their time getting opinions from your neighbor who IS likely to vote.
I highly suspect that such exclusion in pre-polling is directly responsible for the massively poor predictions that pre-polls gave during this primary season. Now that the Primary season is (thank God) officially over, we can see how good your estimates of your own behavior were, compared to those that Gallup Research made:
You very well might be what I'm calling an "Unexpected Voter". That is, someone who DID succeed in voting, but for whom at least one of the statements above was TRUE. The more TRUE statements, the more you surprised the Pre-Poll companies.
Consider your actual voting behavior in this past election. Then, please comment on this post with the following two pieces of information:
*Whether you meet the above definition of an "Unexpected Voter"
*and if you do, the number of statements that were TRUE (the degree to which you surprised us)
You may optionally include information about for whom you voted, but that's really nobody's business but yours.
Previously, I asked you to consider whether any of the following statements were TRUE for you. Then to count up the number of true statements.
* I am NOT currently registered to vote at my present address.
* I did NOT vote in 2004 (presidential election year).
* I did NOT vote in 2002.
* I have NEVER voted in a presidential primary before 2008.
* I do NOT believe that it is every citizen's duty to vote.
* My vote does NOT matter.
For one person, 3 of the 6 statements were true. (4.5% of responders)
For two people, 2 of the 6 statements were true. (9.1% of responders)
For eight people, only one statment was true. (36.4% of responders)
and for eleven people, no statements were true. (50% of responders)
I then asked you to post a comment telling me whether you planned to vote.
It is important in pre-polls to survey the opinions of those peolpe who will actually come out and vote on primary day. Interestingly, Gallup Resesarch (a major pre-poll operator), would not have processed surveys from half of you. Because if you answer "yes" to even one of those questions, Gallup considers you "not likely to vote". Hence, they feel your opinion is irrelevant, and they should spend their time getting opinions from your neighbor who IS likely to vote.
I highly suspect that such exclusion in pre-polling is directly responsible for the massively poor predictions that pre-polls gave during this primary season. Now that the Primary season is (thank God) officially over, we can see how good your estimates of your own behavior were, compared to those that Gallup Research made:
You very well might be what I'm calling an "Unexpected Voter". That is, someone who DID succeed in voting, but for whom at least one of the statements above was TRUE. The more TRUE statements, the more you surprised the Pre-Poll companies.
Consider your actual voting behavior in this past election. Then, please comment on this post with the following two pieces of information:
*Whether you meet the above definition of an "Unexpected Voter"
*and if you do, the number of statements that were TRUE (the degree to which you surprised us)
You may optionally include information about for whom you voted, but that's really nobody's business but yours.