Iran

Jun 15, 2009 11:52

Are y'all watching this?

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harimad June 15 2009, 17:24:16 UTC
I'm still trying to figure out why the citizens think it matters. The elected president has only a narrow range of actions that are contrary to the wishes of the Supreme Council.

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kcatalyst June 15 2009, 17:36:41 UTC
I think maybe they're hoping for more serious change in the long term. I'm not there, but it's hardly unheard of for a relatively minor but obvious affront to trigger anger/reaction to a more widespread problem. In fact it seems like it's more the norm than not.

I've also gotta say, I find your tone disturbingly condescending. Sounds like you're saying that they'd all be staying home ignoring the (potential) fraud if only they were as smart and level-headed as you.

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harimad June 15 2009, 19:26:01 UTC
No, I'm saying that it must be very discouraging to know that one, the elections aren't free and fair and two, even if they were they don't make much practical difference in how the government acts. What you aren't hearing is the tone of admiration in my voice.

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kcatalyst June 15 2009, 19:35:44 UTC
Ok cool, thanks for the clarification.

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jacflash June 15 2009, 18:47:29 UTC
I'm still trying to figure out why the citizens of the US thought last November's election mattered. It's not like the current elected US president has any more powers than the former one.

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harimad June 15 2009, 19:42:21 UTC
That's not what I'm saying. My point isn't about a *change* in Iranian presidential powers (or authority or scope or whatever one wishes to call it). It's about the *absolute* *amount* of power the Iranian president has. In my assessment, he doesn't have much. Ergo the question: these Iranian citizens think that Mir Hossein Mousavi can make a big difference, that he would have more power than I assess him to have; I want to know why they think that.

I see far more of Tiananmen Square than I do of the Berlin Wall, the key factor being the government's and military's willingness to use force against their own people.

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jacflash June 15 2009, 19:44:19 UTC
My point is that your suggestion that you know more about the Iranian people's situation than the people who live in it and who are risking a great deal in these protests is both ridiculous and obnoxious.

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harimad June 15 2009, 19:59:52 UTC
I can see you read my reply - how do you get "Harimad knows more than Iranians" from my statement these Iranian citizens think that Mir Hossein Mousavi [...] would have more power than I assess him to have; I want to know why they think that.? I wrote it in the spirit of "Iranians and I assessed differently, I want to know more about their assessment process and how they reached their conclusions."

Also? you are making assumptions about what I know, who my relatives are and where they are from, what I do for a living, and my academic background. These assumptions may be right, they may be wrong. AFAIK you have no basis for knowing whether they are or not.

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jacflash June 15 2009, 20:06:03 UTC
Except that I've seen you take that tone so many times in so many discussions over the years that I think the assumption wasn't unreasonable.

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harimad June 15 2009, 20:22:17 UTC
Fair enough. You've shown basis, which is what I was asking for.

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vespid_interest June 15 2009, 21:01:57 UTC
I'm told (by former Iranians) that reformer presidents there have a history of being killed, along with all their supporters. Officially, "kidney failure." The president is just a puppet of the clergy and if the outcome of this all is just to settle who is president then nothing will change.

I'd love to be proved wrong though.

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jacflash June 15 2009, 21:05:01 UTC
Well, vocal protest was not a lifespan-enhancing move in the USSR, either, and yet eventually the people took to the streets and the party ended up on the ash heap of history.

On the other hand, that didn't work out so well in China. We'll see which way this goes.

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vespid_interest June 15 2009, 22:09:16 UTC
Yes -- I certainly don't care about any other news right now and am hoping, hoping, hoping. I just know it's a long-shot.

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harimad June 16 2009, 00:56:32 UTC
Let's hope we can put a "yet" after "that didn't work out so well in China."

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cos June 16 2009, 04:02:46 UTC
Reform has been slowed down in many frustrating but ostensibly legal/peaceful ways over the past ~15 years. I think a lot of Iranians saw the political process slowly getting somewhere for about a decade, and then were discouraged and disillusioned for a while, but this is the first time they've seen the regime really try to slam down the brick wall by blatantly stealing an election.

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