рэклямка цікавага чытва
Набывайце выкшталцоўнае чытво. Але насцярожвае, што аўтары ў першым жа абзацы рэзюмэ кажуць што Чыпаліна выступіў супраць расейскай мовы, што ня ёсьць праўдай. Справаздача пас тане на сьнежань-2010 не ўлічвае абставінаў пасьля прэзідэнцкіх выбараў. Ці каштуе яна сваіх амаль чатырыста эўра?
Belarus Defence and Security Report Q1 2011 (Business Monitor International)
changes in its security strategy, became evident in a speech by
Belarusian President Alekssandr Lukashenko in October 2010, as reported
by RT. The president spoke in favour of closer ties with the European
Union and NATO, and against the use of Russian (actually more widely
spoken in the country than Belarussian) as a state language.
Lukashenko
signaled a shift in national security policy to face 'contemporary
global challenges and threats', making pre-emptive moves to tackle
security problems, including extremism, terrorism, humanitarian crises
and information threats. Whether the last issue referred to cyber
warfare or Russian press attacks on the president's regime or both is
not clear.
Relations between Belarus and Russia have worsened
considerably over the past two years, despite the countries' strong
economic, cultural and indeed military ties. Accusations and
counter-accusations have been flying around. In October 2010, The Moscow
News reported that Aleksandr Lukashenko had threatened to pull Belarus
out of the Union State and customs union with Russia and the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an organisation of former
Soviet countries, if Moscow did not recognise his victory in upcoming
elections. Russian President Medvedev has said that Russia will look at
the results 'impartially' - which could be a coded message, as votes in
Belarus are widely considered to be neither free nor fair.
Lukashenko
has hinted that Russia had not been respecting Belarussian sovereignty,
and that the Russian leadership was partly responsible for the decline
in relations. Lukashenko issued a clear veiled threat that if diplomatic
relations deteriorated, Belarus would turn to other countries. With
European countries increasingly tending to extend the olive branch to
Belarus, this is a more substantial threat than perhaps it might have
been five years ago.
We expect relations between Belarus and
Russia to remain strained for the foreseeable future, as Lukashenko
continues to balance his foreign policy objectives. Indeed, while
Belarus has joined a customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan in order
to gain economic benefits from increased trade, the relationship between
Moscow and Minsk is expected to periodically sour given Lukashenko's
reluctance to allow stronger Russian influence within Belarus.
Lukashenko
remains the most likely candidate to win the presidential election in
the beginning of 2011, with power set to remain firmly concentrated
within the executive branch for the foreseeable future as a result.
Meanwhile,
Belarus is seen as a 'cyber sanctuary' from which cyber criminals and
those involved in cyber warfare and espionage can operate without
interference from the authorities. Cyber warfare poses a rising risk to
global political and economic stability and could represent a wild card
in any major international confrontation. We expect the world's major
powers - and indeed, smaller states - to step up their cyber warfare
capabilities over the coming years, with a view to deterring others from
attacking them."
Executive Summary .................. 5
SWOT Analysis .......................... 7
Belarus Security SWOT....................... 7
Belarus Defence Industry SWOT .................. 8
Political SWOT Analysis ..................... 9
Economic SWOT Analysis ................... 9
Business Environment SWOT Analysis ......................................... 10
Global Political Outlook ........................... 11
Global Hotspots ................... 12
Latin America: More Of The Same ............................................... 19
Western Europe ................... 20
Central Europe .................... 22
South Eastern Europe ....................... 22
Russia And The Former Soviet Union ........................................... 23
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges ............................ 24
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending ....................... 26
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China ............................ 27
Wild Cards ........................... 29
Global Security Outlook .......................... 31
Central And Eastern Europe Overview .......................... 37
Security Risk Analysis ............................. 43
Security Ratings ..................... 43
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ............................................ 43
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .................. 44
Belarus' Security Ratings ........................... 45
City Terrorism Ratings ..................... 46
Table: Central & Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ................................................... 47
Security Overview ................... 49
Internal Security Situation .......................... 49
Latest Developments ......................... 49
Territorial Disputes .......................... 51
Relations With The West ................... 52
Relations With Central Asia And Russia ....................................... 53
Latest Developments ......................... 56
Armed Forces And Government Spending ................... 59
Armed Forces ...................... 59
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, '000) ........................... 59
Current Strength .................. 59
Historical Strength ............................ 60
Weapons Of Mass Destruction .................... 61
Market Overview ...................... 62
Industry Trends And Developments .............................................. 63
Table: Key Players In Belarus' Defence Sector ............................ 64
Arms Trade Overview ....................... 65
Procurement Trends And Developments ....................................... 68
Latest Developments ......................... 69
Industry Forecast Scenario ...................... 72
Table: Belarus Defence Armed Forces 2000-2008 ....................... 72
Table: Belarus Defence Available Manpower for Military Service 2000-2008 ...................... 72
Table: Belarus Defence Expenditure 2008-2015 .......................... 74
Table: Belarus Expenditure Scenario: Changing % Of GDP ......................... 75
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................. 76
Company Profiles .................... 78
Beltechexport ....................... 78
558 Aviation Repair Plant .......................... 79
Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT) ......................................... 80
Minotor Service Company .......................... 81
Methodology .................... 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ................................... 82
Defence Industry .................. 82
City Terrorism Rating ....................... 83
Table: Methodology .......................... 85
Sources ................................ 86
Belarus Defence and Security Report Q1 2011 (Business Monitor International)
- Market: Defence
- Published Date: 01 Jan 2011
- Report Type: Market Report
- Country: Belarus
- Number of Pages: 86
changes in its security strategy, became evident in a speech by
Belarusian President Alekssandr Lukashenko in October 2010, as reported
by RT. The president spoke in favour of closer ties with the European
Union and NATO, and against the use of Russian (actually more widely
spoken in the country than Belarussian) as a state language.
Lukashenko
signaled a shift in national security policy to face 'contemporary
global challenges and threats', making pre-emptive moves to tackle
security problems, including extremism, terrorism, humanitarian crises
and information threats. Whether the last issue referred to cyber
warfare or Russian press attacks on the president's regime or both is
not clear.
Relations between Belarus and Russia have worsened
considerably over the past two years, despite the countries' strong
economic, cultural and indeed military ties. Accusations and
counter-accusations have been flying around. In October 2010, The Moscow
News reported that Aleksandr Lukashenko had threatened to pull Belarus
out of the Union State and customs union with Russia and the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an organisation of former
Soviet countries, if Moscow did not recognise his victory in upcoming
elections. Russian President Medvedev has said that Russia will look at
the results 'impartially' - which could be a coded message, as votes in
Belarus are widely considered to be neither free nor fair.
Lukashenko
has hinted that Russia had not been respecting Belarussian sovereignty,
and that the Russian leadership was partly responsible for the decline
in relations. Lukashenko issued a clear veiled threat that if diplomatic
relations deteriorated, Belarus would turn to other countries. With
European countries increasingly tending to extend the olive branch to
Belarus, this is a more substantial threat than perhaps it might have
been five years ago.
We expect relations between Belarus and
Russia to remain strained for the foreseeable future, as Lukashenko
continues to balance his foreign policy objectives. Indeed, while
Belarus has joined a customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan in order
to gain economic benefits from increased trade, the relationship between
Moscow and Minsk is expected to periodically sour given Lukashenko's
reluctance to allow stronger Russian influence within Belarus.
Lukashenko
remains the most likely candidate to win the presidential election in
the beginning of 2011, with power set to remain firmly concentrated
within the executive branch for the foreseeable future as a result.
Meanwhile,
Belarus is seen as a 'cyber sanctuary' from which cyber criminals and
those involved in cyber warfare and espionage can operate without
interference from the authorities. Cyber warfare poses a rising risk to
global political and economic stability and could represent a wild card
in any major international confrontation. We expect the world's major
powers - and indeed, smaller states - to step up their cyber warfare
capabilities over the coming years, with a view to deterring others from
attacking them."
Executive Summary .................. 5
SWOT Analysis .......................... 7
Belarus Security SWOT....................... 7
Belarus Defence Industry SWOT .................. 8
Political SWOT Analysis ..................... 9
Economic SWOT Analysis ................... 9
Business Environment SWOT Analysis ......................................... 10
Global Political Outlook ........................... 11
Global Hotspots ................... 12
Latin America: More Of The Same ............................................... 19
Western Europe ................... 20
Central Europe .................... 22
South Eastern Europe ....................... 22
Russia And The Former Soviet Union ........................................... 23
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges ............................ 24
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending ....................... 26
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China ............................ 27
Wild Cards ........................... 29
Global Security Outlook .......................... 31
Central And Eastern Europe Overview .......................... 37
Security Risk Analysis ............................. 43
Security Ratings ..................... 43
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ............................................ 43
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .................. 44
Belarus' Security Ratings ........................... 45
City Terrorism Ratings ..................... 46
Table: Central & Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ................................................... 47
Security Overview ................... 49
Internal Security Situation .......................... 49
Latest Developments ......................... 49
Territorial Disputes .......................... 51
Relations With The West ................... 52
Relations With Central Asia And Russia ....................................... 53
Latest Developments ......................... 56
Armed Forces And Government Spending ................... 59
Armed Forces ...................... 59
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, '000) ........................... 59
Current Strength .................. 59
Historical Strength ............................ 60
Weapons Of Mass Destruction .................... 61
Market Overview ...................... 62
Industry Trends And Developments .............................................. 63
Table: Key Players In Belarus' Defence Sector ............................ 64
Arms Trade Overview ....................... 65
Procurement Trends And Developments ....................................... 68
Latest Developments ......................... 69
Industry Forecast Scenario ...................... 72
Table: Belarus Defence Armed Forces 2000-2008 ....................... 72
Table: Belarus Defence Available Manpower for Military Service 2000-2008 ...................... 72
Table: Belarus Defence Expenditure 2008-2015 .......................... 74
Table: Belarus Expenditure Scenario: Changing % Of GDP ......................... 75
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................. 76
Company Profiles .................... 78
Beltechexport ....................... 78
558 Aviation Repair Plant .......................... 79
Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT) ......................................... 80
Minotor Service Company .......................... 81
Methodology .................... 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ................................... 82
Defence Industry .................. 82
City Terrorism Rating ....................... 83
Table: Methodology .......................... 85
Sources ................................ 86