the 4% solution
Every so often I dig deep into some polling results, instead of just scanning the averages or election models. Was looking at the latest from the New York Times, and saw:
Only 1% replied that "climate change" was their most important issue, and
Only 3% relied that "equality/inequality" was their most important issue.
Top issues (>10%) were, of course, the economy, abortion, and immigration.
So when I claim that Democrats are frauds on climate change, only 1% would care enough about that as their top issue, perhaps we are the 1% who vote Green. And when I combine this issue with global economic inequality as a Global Green Communist, I'm only picking up 3% more at most (but I suspect the people in the US who view equality as their top issue don't actually care about global inequality).
When people list "the economy" as their top issue, they aren't interested in an equal share of the pie, they just want to make sure their own amount of pie keeps growing. "The economy" is a phrase that means "more stuff for me, thanks".
Abortion is new to the top issues, now that the Supreme Court allows states to ban abortion -- it wasn't even listed as a top issue for anybody four years ago. Immigration is also not usually in the top three, it was only 2% four years ago. And COVID has completely dropped off the list, whereas it was in the top three in 2020. Race issues have also nearly dropped off the list, from the top three in 2020.
With abortion and immigration in the top three this time, we've seen Democrats lurch to the right on immigration, while Republicans lurch to the left on abortion. Concerns about the economy are the main reason why Trump is doing 5-6 points better than four years ago.
Although the polls make the election look like a tossup, I still think Trump has the edge and I'd bet on him winning if it were legal in the US to bet cash on election outcomes. Democrats have been blessed by a late-arriving recession, but voters are still unhappy with the slowing economy. Harris has consolidated hopeful Democrats behind her, but less than Hillary did in 2016, and far less than Biden did in 2020.
The debate on Tuesday could shake things up. I didn't think the Biden/Trump debate would have any effect at all, but it torpedoed Biden's campaign. But I doubt there will be a surprise of that magnitude on Tuesday night, and I doubt there will be another presidential debate afterward. As happened in both 2016 and 2020, I think the polls underestimate Trump's support among low-information voters who will decide at the last minute to vote in person for Trump.
But, I've been wrong about a lot of things this year! In a close election, anything can push it one way or the other. And now Trump is the "old" candidate -- 78 years old -- who would be 82 by the time his second term ends. At this point, I think this is the only issue that would push Trump down, but so far Trump hasn't seemed any more confused in public than he was 4 or 8 years ago. He didn't look like an old dude when he was shot at a rally.
Only 1% replied that "climate change" was their most important issue, and
Only 3% relied that "equality/inequality" was their most important issue.
Top issues (>10%) were, of course, the economy, abortion, and immigration.
So when I claim that Democrats are frauds on climate change, only 1% would care enough about that as their top issue, perhaps we are the 1% who vote Green. And when I combine this issue with global economic inequality as a Global Green Communist, I'm only picking up 3% more at most (but I suspect the people in the US who view equality as their top issue don't actually care about global inequality).
When people list "the economy" as their top issue, they aren't interested in an equal share of the pie, they just want to make sure their own amount of pie keeps growing. "The economy" is a phrase that means "more stuff for me, thanks".
Abortion is new to the top issues, now that the Supreme Court allows states to ban abortion -- it wasn't even listed as a top issue for anybody four years ago. Immigration is also not usually in the top three, it was only 2% four years ago. And COVID has completely dropped off the list, whereas it was in the top three in 2020. Race issues have also nearly dropped off the list, from the top three in 2020.
With abortion and immigration in the top three this time, we've seen Democrats lurch to the right on immigration, while Republicans lurch to the left on abortion. Concerns about the economy are the main reason why Trump is doing 5-6 points better than four years ago.
Although the polls make the election look like a tossup, I still think Trump has the edge and I'd bet on him winning if it were legal in the US to bet cash on election outcomes. Democrats have been blessed by a late-arriving recession, but voters are still unhappy with the slowing economy. Harris has consolidated hopeful Democrats behind her, but less than Hillary did in 2016, and far less than Biden did in 2020.
The debate on Tuesday could shake things up. I didn't think the Biden/Trump debate would have any effect at all, but it torpedoed Biden's campaign. But I doubt there will be a surprise of that magnitude on Tuesday night, and I doubt there will be another presidential debate afterward. As happened in both 2016 and 2020, I think the polls underestimate Trump's support among low-information voters who will decide at the last minute to vote in person for Trump.
But, I've been wrong about a lot of things this year! In a close election, anything can push it one way or the other. And now Trump is the "old" candidate -- 78 years old -- who would be 82 by the time his second term ends. At this point, I think this is the only issue that would push Trump down, but so far Trump hasn't seemed any more confused in public than he was 4 or 8 years ago. He didn't look like an old dude when he was shot at a rally.