Harris is still more of an underdog than Democrats hope
On this date four years ago, Biden was polling 7.8 points above Trump, and he barely won. On this date eight years ago, Clinton was polling 5.4 points above Trump, and she lost.
Harris has a 1.5 point lead right now ...
Perhaps Harris will excite some of the low-turnout voters more than Biden or Clinton did, but Trump has a pattern of outperforming his polls on Election Day, because low-information voters who don't bother with answering polls lean his way, and low-turnout voters who don't make up their minds until the last few days lean his way. Plus, there's a strong Electoral College bias toward Republicans.
Harris will have to do A LOT BETTER than her current polling average to win.
I'm still thinking that this late change in jockeys won't make enough of a difference to win. When a President is so unpopular he drops out in favor of his VP (or somebody else), the VP usually still loses. See 1976, 1968, 1952,
Harris has a 1.5 point lead right now ...
Perhaps Harris will excite some of the low-turnout voters more than Biden or Clinton did, but Trump has a pattern of outperforming his polls on Election Day, because low-information voters who don't bother with answering polls lean his way, and low-turnout voters who don't make up their minds until the last few days lean his way. Plus, there's a strong Electoral College bias toward Republicans.
Harris will have to do A LOT BETTER than her current polling average to win.
I'm still thinking that this late change in jockeys won't make enough of a difference to win. When a President is so unpopular he drops out in favor of his VP (or somebody else), the VP usually still loses. See 1976, 1968, 1952,