some historical comparisons
In both 1952 and 1968, unpopular Democratic Presidents decided not to run for second terms. Both times, the Democratic National Conventions had to select the party's replacement candidates -- in 1952 the delegates ultimately chose Truman's hand-picked successor, in 1968 the delegates chose LBJ's VP on the first vote. Both times, these replacement candidates lost to their Republican challengers.
Coincidentally, both times the conventions were held in Chicago, as this year.
This time the Democratic delegates appear far more unified, in support of Harris, than in either 1952 or 1968. This time, the main issue tearing apart the party had been Biden's age, not Biden's policies. Both Truman and LBJ had become unpopular within their own parties because of unsuccessful wars in Korea and Vietnam. Although Biden was experiencing some dissent over the Hamas/Israel war, he had not sent US troops into the conflict, so few voters viewed this war as their top issue.
A lot of people are wondering how Kamala Harris will do against Donald Trump. It's difficult to say right now, because she's never been a major party's presidential candidate before, and people's opinions of her before July 21st were based on her role as VP. She's never served as Governor of a state, and she served less than one full term as a US Senator. Most of her public life was split between serving as District Attorney of San Francisco, and Attorney General of California. So, she has experience as a prosecutor, not as a chief executive.
As VP, she was unpopular, with an approval rating of only 38%, below Trump's approval rating of 43%, and even below Biden's approval rating of 39%. In head-to-head polls against Trump before Biden dropped out, Trump led Harris by 2 points.
To the extent voters view Harris as an extension of Biden, she's not going to do well against Trump. For Harris to have a chance of beating Trump, she will need to quickly establish her own brand, and then voters will need to view that brand favorably. I think it is impossible to know right now whether Harris can retool her image in a way that voters respond favorably to.
Harris is clearly going through a honeymoon period with loyal Democrats, who are racing to send her money and endorsements. Democrats will feel a boost from having a candidate who can give a prepared speech without losing her train of thought. But now she's got to show the country who she is and what she can do, including how she will be a different President from the previous unpopular two. She needs a popular agenda that contrasts well with what people dislike about Trump, while also taking a few 90-degree turns away from Biden.
Despite having been in the public eye as VP, I don't consider Harris a known quantity. I think it will take the country a couple of months to get to know her as a Presidential candidate. I would expect initial polling to show more undecideds peeling away from all the major & minor party candidates, while voters watch Harris and reassess.
So, my crystal ball is useless right now. Harris gets to make her own path now.
Coincidentally, both times the conventions were held in Chicago, as this year.
This time the Democratic delegates appear far more unified, in support of Harris, than in either 1952 or 1968. This time, the main issue tearing apart the party had been Biden's age, not Biden's policies. Both Truman and LBJ had become unpopular within their own parties because of unsuccessful wars in Korea and Vietnam. Although Biden was experiencing some dissent over the Hamas/Israel war, he had not sent US troops into the conflict, so few voters viewed this war as their top issue.
A lot of people are wondering how Kamala Harris will do against Donald Trump. It's difficult to say right now, because she's never been a major party's presidential candidate before, and people's opinions of her before July 21st were based on her role as VP. She's never served as Governor of a state, and she served less than one full term as a US Senator. Most of her public life was split between serving as District Attorney of San Francisco, and Attorney General of California. So, she has experience as a prosecutor, not as a chief executive.
As VP, she was unpopular, with an approval rating of only 38%, below Trump's approval rating of 43%, and even below Biden's approval rating of 39%. In head-to-head polls against Trump before Biden dropped out, Trump led Harris by 2 points.
To the extent voters view Harris as an extension of Biden, she's not going to do well against Trump. For Harris to have a chance of beating Trump, she will need to quickly establish her own brand, and then voters will need to view that brand favorably. I think it is impossible to know right now whether Harris can retool her image in a way that voters respond favorably to.
Harris is clearly going through a honeymoon period with loyal Democrats, who are racing to send her money and endorsements. Democrats will feel a boost from having a candidate who can give a prepared speech without losing her train of thought. But now she's got to show the country who she is and what she can do, including how she will be a different President from the previous unpopular two. She needs a popular agenda that contrasts well with what people dislike about Trump, while also taking a few 90-degree turns away from Biden.
Despite having been in the public eye as VP, I don't consider Harris a known quantity. I think it will take the country a couple of months to get to know her as a Presidential candidate. I would expect initial polling to show more undecideds peeling away from all the major & minor party candidates, while voters watch Harris and reassess.
So, my crystal ball is useless right now. Harris gets to make her own path now.