2023 state and local elections -- abortion was the clear winner
Some states and localities have odd-year elections, and this morning's headlines look similar to those after the 2022 midterm elections: Democrats outperformed expectations, mainly because of the abortion issue. Now that the Supreme Court no longer backs a Constitutional right to abortion, some voters who would otherwise have voted Republican or not voted at all are showing up to vote for pro-choice Democrats and ballot initiatives.
Last year I estimated the strength of these vote flippers in the low single-digits -- 3% -- but that's enough to flip many close elections around the country. Odd-year elections are more scattered than midterm elections, but the strength of the pro-choice flip seems similar in 2023 to that in 2022. Not a landslide, but a 3% flip is enough to make a difference in close races.
Of course observers want to take a message from this phenomenon into 2024, but we haven't had a post-Roe Presidential race yet, and Biden hasn't yet tried to turn the race into a referendum on abortion rights. If Biden's support as shown in current polling already reflects the pro-choice bump, he's toast anyway. If it doesn't, it might give him enough of a boost to keep the 2024 election about as close as 2020 was -- unless we enter a recession. Polling clearly shows more voters are concerned about the economy than about abortion rights, because most people have to deal with the economy every day, whereas abortion is more of a once-in-a-lifetime thing for women in particular age groups and situations.
My advice to Democrats would be to wear your pro-choice positions on your sleeve, if not on your forehead, until the country reaches a new consensus on what abortion rights should look like without Constitutional protection. Emily's List is on my short list for new donations in 2024 because it focuses like a laser beam on electing pro-choice women to political office.
Last year I estimated the strength of these vote flippers in the low single-digits -- 3% -- but that's enough to flip many close elections around the country. Odd-year elections are more scattered than midterm elections, but the strength of the pro-choice flip seems similar in 2023 to that in 2022. Not a landslide, but a 3% flip is enough to make a difference in close races.
Of course observers want to take a message from this phenomenon into 2024, but we haven't had a post-Roe Presidential race yet, and Biden hasn't yet tried to turn the race into a referendum on abortion rights. If Biden's support as shown in current polling already reflects the pro-choice bump, he's toast anyway. If it doesn't, it might give him enough of a boost to keep the 2024 election about as close as 2020 was -- unless we enter a recession. Polling clearly shows more voters are concerned about the economy than about abortion rights, because most people have to deal with the economy every day, whereas abortion is more of a once-in-a-lifetime thing for women in particular age groups and situations.
My advice to Democrats would be to wear your pro-choice positions on your sleeve, if not on your forehead, until the country reaches a new consensus on what abortion rights should look like without Constitutional protection. Emily's List is on my short list for new donations in 2024 because it focuses like a laser beam on electing pro-choice women to political office.