the upcoming recession is now baked in, as is Biden's loss
Every time the Fed has inverted interest rates for at least 11 months, as it has now done, we've entered a recession between 8 and 18 months after the inversion began.
So, sometime in the next 7 months we'll enter a recession, unless somehow we're about to break history. Bayesian statistics, which can be used to assess the chances of historical events continuing to occur, would put us at an 85% chance of a recession by summer, with a 15% chance of breaking history.
I keep harping on this, but I'm just reporting what's happened in the past, and the likelihood of the same thing happening in the future.
Meanwhile, Biden's popularity is now lower than every President since WW2 at this point in his term except for Carter. And, of course, Carter lost his re-election campaign. Biden's popularity is lower than Trump's was, who lost his re-election campaign, and Papa Bush's was, who lost his re-election campaign.
I continue to think the chance that Biden will lose next year is very high, assuming he lives that long. So, I continue to support Nikki Haley for President LOL. She's got the best chance of toppling Trump in the primary, although the betting markets currently give her only a 10% chance of doing that.
So, sometime in the next 7 months we'll enter a recession, unless somehow we're about to break history. Bayesian statistics, which can be used to assess the chances of historical events continuing to occur, would put us at an 85% chance of a recession by summer, with a 15% chance of breaking history.
I keep harping on this, but I'm just reporting what's happened in the past, and the likelihood of the same thing happening in the future.
Meanwhile, Biden's popularity is now lower than every President since WW2 at this point in his term except for Carter. And, of course, Carter lost his re-election campaign. Biden's popularity is lower than Trump's was, who lost his re-election campaign, and Papa Bush's was, who lost his re-election campaign.
I continue to think the chance that Biden will lose next year is very high, assuming he lives that long. So, I continue to support Nikki Haley for President LOL. She's got the best chance of toppling Trump in the primary, although the betting markets currently give her only a 10% chance of doing that.