Switch tutorial, choosing a next board game to solo, reading about the lifecycle of empires
This evening T was feeling well enough to show me how to play my new Switch game down in the Media Cave! Yay! This will happen while he's on his next away cycle!
I'm also reading the rules for the next board game I want to play solo. I'll write more about that once I'm into playing it.
And reading a book about the lifecycle of empires, what empires throughout history have in common as they grow and as they decline. I was struck by how the US counts as an empire under the author's general definition, and by how it looks like we're probably entering a period of decline. We fit the definition of an empire because we are large enough to be multi-ethnic and to have territories that have their own limited sovereignty -- states and Native American reservations -- and we are the 3rd most populous country in the world. We look like we're probably entering a period of decline because of the growing levels of disunity, disloyalty, and dissatisfaction among the population.
What happens when an empire goes into decline? Inequality gets worse, institutions decay, there's a rising chance of civil war, occupied territories are abandoned, stuff like that.
But many empires go through cycles of growth and decline rather than simply rising and falling one time. The US is so new at being an empire that I think we in the US forget how long an empire can persist through multiple cycles. Russia and China, for example, have seen several cycles of growth and decline, and they're both still around, both still considered world powers -- Russia is over 1000 years old, China over 4000 years old. If you count both the Western and Eastern halves of the Roman Empire, it was around for 1500 years. So even if the US is heading into a period of decline, it doesn't mean we're going to disappear. Arguably the US first entered a decline in the 1860s, but then recovered and began growing again.
One factor leading to decline --> the overproduction of elites. What the hell does that mean? Too many members of the ruling class, not enough positions and/or wealth to go around. So conflict between ruling factions results. This sounds like the overproduction of college graduates in the US to me, with not enough professional jobs to go around, which causes a great deal of dissatisfaction among these "overeducated" elites. In a more monarchical society, it could be too many heirs to the throne, too many nobles or aristocrats or bishops, not enough lordships and estates to go around.
Another factor leading to decline --> too much population growth in general, leading to unaffordable housing or food. Too many people but not enough stuff to go around. And, yes, this can happen in wealthy societies -- in fact it is more likely to happen in wealthy societies, because wealthy societies have too many children and/or attract too many immigrants.
Interesting stuff. There is a lifecycle to empires such as the US, and we may have passed a peak, may be on the way down for a while, until conflict reduces the number of elites and/or general population.
The author hopes that by educating people as to the cyclical nature of empires, that we could come up with countercyclical policies. Sort of like Hari Seldon's Foundation LOL, except the author acknowledges that there are too many variables, too many people who could do something unpredictable.
I suspect that, as with other features of empires, universal suffrage could also become something that rises and falls in a cyclical way -- maybe we've peaked on that variable also.
OK, I'm getting sleepy now.
I'm also reading the rules for the next board game I want to play solo. I'll write more about that once I'm into playing it.
And reading a book about the lifecycle of empires, what empires throughout history have in common as they grow and as they decline. I was struck by how the US counts as an empire under the author's general definition, and by how it looks like we're probably entering a period of decline. We fit the definition of an empire because we are large enough to be multi-ethnic and to have territories that have their own limited sovereignty -- states and Native American reservations -- and we are the 3rd most populous country in the world. We look like we're probably entering a period of decline because of the growing levels of disunity, disloyalty, and dissatisfaction among the population.
What happens when an empire goes into decline? Inequality gets worse, institutions decay, there's a rising chance of civil war, occupied territories are abandoned, stuff like that.
But many empires go through cycles of growth and decline rather than simply rising and falling one time. The US is so new at being an empire that I think we in the US forget how long an empire can persist through multiple cycles. Russia and China, for example, have seen several cycles of growth and decline, and they're both still around, both still considered world powers -- Russia is over 1000 years old, China over 4000 years old. If you count both the Western and Eastern halves of the Roman Empire, it was around for 1500 years. So even if the US is heading into a period of decline, it doesn't mean we're going to disappear. Arguably the US first entered a decline in the 1860s, but then recovered and began growing again.
One factor leading to decline --> the overproduction of elites. What the hell does that mean? Too many members of the ruling class, not enough positions and/or wealth to go around. So conflict between ruling factions results. This sounds like the overproduction of college graduates in the US to me, with not enough professional jobs to go around, which causes a great deal of dissatisfaction among these "overeducated" elites. In a more monarchical society, it could be too many heirs to the throne, too many nobles or aristocrats or bishops, not enough lordships and estates to go around.
Another factor leading to decline --> too much population growth in general, leading to unaffordable housing or food. Too many people but not enough stuff to go around. And, yes, this can happen in wealthy societies -- in fact it is more likely to happen in wealthy societies, because wealthy societies have too many children and/or attract too many immigrants.
Interesting stuff. There is a lifecycle to empires such as the US, and we may have passed a peak, may be on the way down for a while, until conflict reduces the number of elites and/or general population.
The author hopes that by educating people as to the cyclical nature of empires, that we could come up with countercyclical policies. Sort of like Hari Seldon's Foundation LOL, except the author acknowledges that there are too many variables, too many people who could do something unpredictable.
I suspect that, as with other features of empires, universal suffrage could also become something that rises and falls in a cyclical way -- maybe we've peaked on that variable also.
OK, I'm getting sleepy now.