Russia > Ukraine
I never bought the spin that Russia was losing its war with Ukraine. Yeah, the initial knockout blow failed to achieve a knockout, but in the south and east it was more clear that Russia was slowly and steadily gaining territory via superior numbers and attrition. The sanctions were never going to stop Russia, and NATO can throw as many weapons at Ukraine as it wants, but Russia is bigger than Ukraine with 3x the population and 10x the resources -- and has practiced in Syria how to blow the shit out of a contested city until there's nothing left but for Russian troops to advance into the rubble and declare a hollow victory.
I'm not saying Ukraine will ultimately lose, this could go on for years, perhaps there will be a cease fire after Russia gobbles up enough additional territory to feel temporarily satisfied, but I never bought the spin that Russia was losing -- Russia has the advantage and has gained territory and is currently gaining territory. Perhaps war-weariness will become a factor in Russia but that usually takes several years. The US fought for 10 years in Vietnam before we quit, and we only quit after two Presidents in a row resigned. The Soviets fought in Afghanistan for 10 years also, only quitting after three General Secretaries died in office. A major world power like Russia doesn't just quit once it has started fighting -- not while Putin still runs the country, and perhaps not while his successor does either.
People often underestimate how long a war can last. Yeah, sometimes it is over quickly, but if you don't achieve a quick knockout blow then it will go on for years and maybe nobody will actually "win", you only end up with an unsatisfactory partition (see Ireland, Korea).
Imagine Europe doing without Russia's oil and natural gas for years -- and they haven't even given it all up yet, and energy prices are already at record highs in the US. Meanwhile China & India are happy to buy Russian fuels for their economies, currently at a discount to global prices. As the democratically elected governments in Europe and the US are replaced due to persistently high inflation and stagnant GDP, our future leaders may decide to cut Ukraine loose and relax the sanctions. I can definitely see Trump doing that, he'd just bluntly say, "We need their oil." But it could be years from now.
My main response will be to continue supporting refugees from all war-torn countries, both monetarily and politically, while hoping for an end to the violence. But I expect the violence in Ukraine could continue for years. It still seems the only, and perhaps only temporary, way to decrease violence between nations is the proliferation of atomic weapons. It's currently keeping the US from directly confronting Russia, for example. Seems nukes are the only thing standing between humanity and WW3. For now.
I'm not saying Ukraine will ultimately lose, this could go on for years, perhaps there will be a cease fire after Russia gobbles up enough additional territory to feel temporarily satisfied, but I never bought the spin that Russia was losing -- Russia has the advantage and has gained territory and is currently gaining territory. Perhaps war-weariness will become a factor in Russia but that usually takes several years. The US fought for 10 years in Vietnam before we quit, and we only quit after two Presidents in a row resigned. The Soviets fought in Afghanistan for 10 years also, only quitting after three General Secretaries died in office. A major world power like Russia doesn't just quit once it has started fighting -- not while Putin still runs the country, and perhaps not while his successor does either.
People often underestimate how long a war can last. Yeah, sometimes it is over quickly, but if you don't achieve a quick knockout blow then it will go on for years and maybe nobody will actually "win", you only end up with an unsatisfactory partition (see Ireland, Korea).
Imagine Europe doing without Russia's oil and natural gas for years -- and they haven't even given it all up yet, and energy prices are already at record highs in the US. Meanwhile China & India are happy to buy Russian fuels for their economies, currently at a discount to global prices. As the democratically elected governments in Europe and the US are replaced due to persistently high inflation and stagnant GDP, our future leaders may decide to cut Ukraine loose and relax the sanctions. I can definitely see Trump doing that, he'd just bluntly say, "We need their oil." But it could be years from now.
My main response will be to continue supporting refugees from all war-torn countries, both monetarily and politically, while hoping for an end to the violence. But I expect the violence in Ukraine could continue for years. It still seems the only, and perhaps only temporary, way to decrease violence between nations is the proliferation of atomic weapons. It's currently keeping the US from directly confronting Russia, for example. Seems nukes are the only thing standing between humanity and WW3. For now.