preliminary prediction for House midterms
I think if the 2022 midterms were held today, Democrats would lose 41 seats in the House. My Presidential race predictions in 2016 and 2020 were turned upside-down by Trump's relative political genius, but my 2018 House midterms prediction was pretty close. [Since the modern two-party system began in 1968, Trump performed the best of any challenger to the incumbent party (2016), and the best of any incumbent (2020), relative to the economic background. I must conclude that Trump is the political genius of my lifetime.]
The Senate is too difficult to predict, because only 1/3 of the Senate seats are up every two years, and the mix of incumbents and open seats is variable. So I don't try to do my own Senate predictions. But I'd lean against Democrats retaining control of the Senate. They'll have an uphill fight. Etc.
41 seats down in the House, that'll suck. But it's to be expected when one party controls White House, Senate, and House. It would be almost impossible for Democrats to hold onto the House.
The Senate is too difficult to predict, because only 1/3 of the Senate seats are up every two years, and the mix of incumbents and open seats is variable. So I don't try to do my own Senate predictions. But I'd lean against Democrats retaining control of the Senate. They'll have an uphill fight. Etc.
41 seats down in the House, that'll suck. But it's to be expected when one party controls White House, Senate, and House. It would be almost impossible for Democrats to hold onto the House.