I'm not worried about Trump stealing the 2024 election, I'm worried about him winning legitimately
My most-likely scenario is this:
The midterm elections in 2022 result in a Republican landslide, as we also saw in 2010 and 1994 during previous first-term Democratic administrations. It would be a normal thing in the US, because the party in power gets into bickering amongst itself, while the opposition feels united and motivated to kick them out. 1994 saw a 54-seat swing toward Republicans in the House and 8 in the Senate, 2010 saw a 63-seat swing toward Republicans in the House and 6 in the Senate. A 5-seat swing is enough to give the House back to Republicans in 2022, and the Senate is already 50/50.
Then continued high inflation finally forces the Federal Reserve to begin hiking interest rates from 2022 into 2023. Meanwhile, the Republican Congress forces sharp budget cuts, undoing most of Biden's spending programs. Remember government shutdowns? We'll have more of those.
This combination of monetary and fiscal austerity pushes us into a recession and market crash in mid-to-late 2023.
The stress on elderly Biden may cause him to suffer a heart attack or stroke amidst continued cognitive decline, or he may see how unpopular he's become and announce he's not running for re-election. Either way, we'll have a contested Democratic Presidential primary, as we usually do when the Democratic incumbent is unpopular. See Carter in 1980, LBJ in 1968.
So voters rationally decide in 2024 to kick out the Democratic administration for mismanaging both the economy and their retirement funds, amidst high inflation and high unemployment in a country that was finally -- finally -- emerging from the COVID pandemic. From pandemic recession to plain old recession, voters are disgusted with all their choices. A strong third-party billionaire candidate rises, but only far enough to cut into the Harris vote, allowing Trump to win the Electoral College legitimately for a second time with less than 40% of the popular vote.
The midterm elections in 2022 result in a Republican landslide, as we also saw in 2010 and 1994 during previous first-term Democratic administrations. It would be a normal thing in the US, because the party in power gets into bickering amongst itself, while the opposition feels united and motivated to kick them out. 1994 saw a 54-seat swing toward Republicans in the House and 8 in the Senate, 2010 saw a 63-seat swing toward Republicans in the House and 6 in the Senate. A 5-seat swing is enough to give the House back to Republicans in 2022, and the Senate is already 50/50.
Then continued high inflation finally forces the Federal Reserve to begin hiking interest rates from 2022 into 2023. Meanwhile, the Republican Congress forces sharp budget cuts, undoing most of Biden's spending programs. Remember government shutdowns? We'll have more of those.
This combination of monetary and fiscal austerity pushes us into a recession and market crash in mid-to-late 2023.
The stress on elderly Biden may cause him to suffer a heart attack or stroke amidst continued cognitive decline, or he may see how unpopular he's become and announce he's not running for re-election. Either way, we'll have a contested Democratic Presidential primary, as we usually do when the Democratic incumbent is unpopular. See Carter in 1980, LBJ in 1968.
So voters rationally decide in 2024 to kick out the Democratic administration for mismanaging both the economy and their retirement funds, amidst high inflation and high unemployment in a country that was finally -- finally -- emerging from the COVID pandemic. From pandemic recession to plain old recession, voters are disgusted with all their choices. A strong third-party billionaire candidate rises, but only far enough to cut into the Harris vote, allowing Trump to win the Electoral College legitimately for a second time with less than 40% of the popular vote.