"Do the Math"
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/post-index/
It's one of my all-time favorite blogs, by a physicist who walks through all kinds of calculations relating to environmental and sustainability issues:
One of my most important messages is that we need to shake the religion of growth. We simply can’t continue growing indefinitely. Either we use our brains to plot a trajectory into steady-state and hope it’s smooth, or we let nature decide how to deal with us.
Maybe I’m overreacting. Maybe I’ve “flipped a bit,” as they would say in the world of computer engineering. But I keep evaluating this possibility and keep coming back to the fundamental and quantitatively convincing case: we have built a life of growth and prosperity based on a finite and soon-to-max-out resource with no equal replacement in sight.
This is uncharted territory, and the fact that generations have experienced the fossil-fueled upswing holds no predictive power over our future. Just because growth has been thematic does not mean it will always be so. The failure of most people to treat this possibility seriously is disheartening, because it prevents meaningful planning for a different future. We can all hope for new technologies to help us. But this problem is too big to rely on hope alone, and in any case, no practical technology can keep growth going indefinitely.
He carefully explains that if we continue to experience growth of 2% per year, something that currently feels altogether normal and expected, then the laws of thermodynamics would have the earth boiling hotter than the sun in less than the time since Christ's birth. Just from the waste heat of our activities, not counting the effects of global warming or whatever. Economic growth simply cannot continue indefinitely, no matter what kinds of science fiction you watch on your TV.
Then he breaks it down in many more practical ways. I find his writing endlessly fascinating, and impossible to refute. He's not actively adding to his blog anymore, but it stands as an impressive collection of essays that I wish all global citizens would read.
It's one of my all-time favorite blogs, by a physicist who walks through all kinds of calculations relating to environmental and sustainability issues:
One of my most important messages is that we need to shake the religion of growth. We simply can’t continue growing indefinitely. Either we use our brains to plot a trajectory into steady-state and hope it’s smooth, or we let nature decide how to deal with us.
Maybe I’m overreacting. Maybe I’ve “flipped a bit,” as they would say in the world of computer engineering. But I keep evaluating this possibility and keep coming back to the fundamental and quantitatively convincing case: we have built a life of growth and prosperity based on a finite and soon-to-max-out resource with no equal replacement in sight.
This is uncharted territory, and the fact that generations have experienced the fossil-fueled upswing holds no predictive power over our future. Just because growth has been thematic does not mean it will always be so. The failure of most people to treat this possibility seriously is disheartening, because it prevents meaningful planning for a different future. We can all hope for new technologies to help us. But this problem is too big to rely on hope alone, and in any case, no practical technology can keep growth going indefinitely.
He carefully explains that if we continue to experience growth of 2% per year, something that currently feels altogether normal and expected, then the laws of thermodynamics would have the earth boiling hotter than the sun in less than the time since Christ's birth. Just from the waste heat of our activities, not counting the effects of global warming or whatever. Economic growth simply cannot continue indefinitely, no matter what kinds of science fiction you watch on your TV.
Then he breaks it down in many more practical ways. I find his writing endlessly fascinating, and impossible to refute. He's not actively adding to his blog anymore, but it stands as an impressive collection of essays that I wish all global citizens would read.