the economy has slowed way way down
Although the stock market has crept to new highs, the economy is slowing down, slowing way down. The Atlanta Fed estimates GDP during the current quarter is growing at the slow slow annual rate of 0.4%, which is slower than our population growth, which means ... technically ... we're in a per-capita recession right now. The amount of stuff we're making per person is shrinking slightly. Very slightly, like 0.2% per year. If the average person was making $50,000 of stuff last quarter, she's making $49,975 of stuff this quarter. Very slight reduction.
But, from an official standpoint, recessions aren't recognized until they've persisted for at least six months. This could be a short-term blip. It could even reverse itself before the quarter ends.
I still think the flipped coin is spinning in the air and we can't know yet whether we're entering an official recession or not. 50% chance, either way. We're very close. If entering a recession were like having sex, you've put the condom on and you've lined up your cock with the hole ... but you haven't pushed inside yet. So close!
UPDATE: This technical per-capita recession did not last long, the US economy is growing at 2% again.
But, from an official standpoint, recessions aren't recognized until they've persisted for at least six months. This could be a short-term blip. It could even reverse itself before the quarter ends.
I still think the flipped coin is spinning in the air and we can't know yet whether we're entering an official recession or not. 50% chance, either way. We're very close. If entering a recession were like having sex, you've put the condom on and you've lined up your cock with the hole ... but you haven't pushed inside yet. So close!
UPDATE: This technical per-capita recession did not last long, the US economy is growing at 2% again.