it ain't over 'til the first lady sings
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47%, Clinton 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been within three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2.
These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these include African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from white women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.
Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, were unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change.
These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these include African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from white women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.
Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, were unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change.