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Playoff Watch: Week 16 Update Dec 15, 2008 - Let's start by putting it simply before we get into the decidedly complicated nuts and bolts that prove the following statement true:Even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seventh in a race for six NFC postseason spots right now, they will be in the playoffs if they win their last two games, no matter what else the Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears or Philadelphia Eagles do.In other words, the Buccaneers still control their own destiny.
Hard to believe? How could the Buccaneers currently be behind the Falcons in the current standings but still finish ahead of their NFC South foes if both teams win out? Well, it all comes down to the tiebreakers, and the difference between the temporary edge the Falcons have now and the final scenario if the two teams are tied at 11-5.
Want a more detailed answer? Strap in, because here we go, step by step:
1. If the Buccaneers win out by defeating San Diego and Oakland at home, they will finish 11-5. Only two other teams in the NFC (beyond the division winners) can finish 11-5: Dallas and Atlanta. Thus, if either Dallas or Atlanta loses one of their final two games, the Bucs would be assured of one of the two Wild Card spots.
2. If the Buccaneers, Falcons and Cowboys all finish at 11-5, then the Cowboys would be the fifth seed and the Buccaneers would be the sixth seed after tiebreakers are applied. A lot of tiebreakers. Here's how it breaks down:
The first step in such a three-way tie is to eliminate all but one team from each division. Thus you first have to break the tie between Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Here's how that would go, in order of how the tiebreakers are applied:
a. Head-to-head: Bucs and Falcons split their two games. Still tied.
b. Best record in games played against division opponents: Both teams are 3-3. Still tied.
c. Best record in games played against common opponents: Both teams would be 9-3. Still tied.
d. Best record in games played against conference opponents: Both teams would be 8-4. Still tied.
e. Strength of victory: Here's where it gets really complicated. "Strength of victory" means the combined winning percentage of all of the teams that you beat. There would be only one victory that the Buccaneers and Falcons wouldn't share, as Tampa Bay beat Seattle and Atlanta beat St. Louis. By virtue of Seattle's win over St. Louis on Sunday, Seattle is now one game ahead of St. Louis, which means the Buccaneers' strength of victory would be higher. The Rams cannot pass the Seahawks in this scenario because, amazingly, Atlanta plays St. Louis in Week 17 and this scenario presupposes Atlanta beating the Rams. Otherwise, Atlanta wouldn't be in the tiebreaker at all. However, St. Louis could still equal the Seahawks by beating San Francisco in Week 16 and Seattle losing out. Thus, it could go to the next tiebreaker, which is...
f. Strength of schedule: This is the same concept as strength of victory except you include all the opponents you played, not just the ones you beat. In this case, the Bucs and Falcons would have only two games not in common, as Tampa Bay played Dallas and Seattle and Atlanta played Philadelphia and St. Louis. We've already established that Seattle and St. Louis would be tied, so it would come down to who has a better record between Dallas and Philadelphia. Obviously, in this scenario, Dallas would have a better record than Philadelphia. If Philadelphia does beat Dallas, then the Cowboys wouldn't have 11 wins and wouldn't be in this tiebreaker, and both Atlanta and Tampa Bay would go.
After the Buccaneers knock Atlanta out, they would lose the tiebreaker for the fifth seed to Dallas and would be the sixth seed.
Got that? There's a quiz on it tomorrow morning.
In all seriousness, it is a sign of how convoluted and tight this year's NFC playoff race is that last weekend's game between Seattle and St. Louis - two teams that came into the weekend at 2-11 - could be the deciding factor for the final Wild Card berth. Had St. Louis beaten Seattle, Atlanta would be holding the exact same advantage that is described in such detail above for the Buccaneers.
But wait, there's more...
- If the Buccaneers win their final two games and the Panthers lose their last two (at New York and New Orleans), Tampa Bay would win the NFC South and be the second seed in the NFC field, earning a first-round bye.
How is this? Well, both teams would be 11-5, and after the first three tiebreakers (head-to-head, division record, common games record) all came out as ties, the Bucs would win due to better conference record, 8-4 to 7-5. The difference there would be Tampa Bay beating Minnesota but losing to Denver while the Panthers lost to the Vikings but beat the Broncos.
If Atlanta wins their last two as well and it's a three-way tie for the division title, Carolina would be eliminated in the fourth step (conference record) and then the Buccaneers would beat the Falcons according to that long scenario posted above.
If the Buccaneers are 11-5 division winner and the Vikings are also 11-5 and winners of the NFC North, the Buccaneers would get the #2 seed thanks to their head-to-head win over Minnesota.
Before we get to the scenarios that involve the Bucs losing one of their last two games, let's check the current standings in the NFC, heading into the final two weeks of the season. Though these are the conference standings, they reflect division leaders, which is why some teams are ahead of others with superior records.
TeamW-LConf. Rec.Div. Rec.Remaining OpponentsOpp. Win Pct.^N.Y. Giants #&11-38-24-2car, @min.714Carolina *11-37-33-2@nyg, @no.643Minnesota *9-57-34-2atl, nyg.714Arizona #8-66-55-0@ne, sea.429Dallas ^%9-57-43-2bal, @phi.611Atlanta +9-56-43-3@min, stl.393----------------- Tampa Bay9-58-43-3sd, oak.321Chicago8-66-53-2gb, @hou.429Philadelphia %7-5-16-41-3cle, @was, dal.488Washington %7-76-42-3phi, @sf.463
Legend
# Clinched division
* Current division leader
& Currently holds the seeding tiebreaker over Carolina due to better conference record (8-2 to 7-3)
^ Currently holds the Wild Card tiebreaker over Atlanta and Tampa Bay due to better conference record over Atlanta (7-4 to 6-4) after Atlanta eliminates Tampa Bay from the three-way tie (see below)
+ Currently holds the Wild Card tiebreaker over Tampa Bay due to better record in common games (8-3 to 7-3)
% Record and/or opponent winning percentage does not yet include result of Monday night game between Philadelphia and Cleveland
Yes, the Buccaneers can still get into the playoffs if they lose one of their final two games - it really doesn't matter which one - but they're going to need some help. Most notably, they would need Minnesota to beat Atlanta next week.
At this point, Philadelphia also becomes a problem, since it can finish 10-5-1, so the Buccaneers also need Dallas to beat the Eagles in Week 17. To summarize, if the Bucs win just one of their last two games and Atlanta loses to Minnesota and Dallas beats Philadelphia, the Bucs would clinch a playoff spot.
If the first two-thirds of that scenario occur by Philadelphia beats Dallas, then the Buccaneers would need Chicago to win its final two games. In this scenario, Philadelphia gets the first Wild Card spot at 10-5-1 while Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and Tampa Bay all finish 10-6. The Bucs would first eliminate Atlanta based on the same scenarios as above. The head-to-head tiebreaker only applies between three teams if all three played each other, and Dallas and Chicago did not play each other. Thus, it goes to conference record and the Bucs would be 8-4 while both the Cowboys and Bears would be 7-5.
The worst scenario for the Buccaneers (beyond losing two more games, of course) is a loss in one of the last two games coupled with an Atlanta win over Minnesota. In that case, Atlanta would end up with a better record against common opponents and would have a tiebreaker hammer over the Bucs. There is a complicated scenario that would still put Tampa Bay into the playoffs under such a combination of events, but it involves about a half-dozen games going in the Bucs' favor and it's hardly worth contemplating at this point.
Of course, the scenario we've just spent so much time contemplating - a three-way tie between Atlanta, Dallas and Tampa Bay at 11-5 each - requires six specific outcomes, too. It's not exactly a far-fetched concept, though. The Bucs finish with two games at Raymond James Stadium, where they are 6-0 this year, against a pair of opponents currently under .500 (if not exactly out of the race). Atlanta has a tough test next weekend in Atlanta but finishes at home against the struggling Rams. And the Cowboys have two very tough remaining opponents in Baltimore and Philadelphia but they looked very strong on Sunday night beating the defending-champion Giants.
And as for the division-title race, Carolina has two road games remaining, one against the 11-3 Giants and one against the high-powered Saints, who are 6-1 at home this year.
All of which means that there exists the very real possibility that an 11-win team will be shut out of the postseason for the first time in 23 years. That last happened to Denver in 1985, when their 11-5 record wasn't good enough to beat out the 11-5 Jets and Patriots. That has never happened in the NFC since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970 and created the two conferences.
And that's how crazy this year's NFC playoff race is.
Hard to believe? How could the Buccaneers currently be behind the Falcons in the current standings but still finish ahead of their NFC South foes if both teams win out? Well, it all comes down to the tiebreakers, and the difference between the temporary edge the Falcons have now and the final scenario if the two teams are tied at 11-5.
Want a more detailed answer? Strap in, because here we go, step by step:
1. If the Buccaneers win out by defeating San Diego and Oakland at home, they will finish 11-5. Only two other teams in the NFC (beyond the division winners) can finish 11-5: Dallas and Atlanta. Thus, if either Dallas or Atlanta loses one of their final two games, the Bucs would be assured of one of the two Wild Card spots.
2. If the Buccaneers, Falcons and Cowboys all finish at 11-5, then the Cowboys would be the fifth seed and the Buccaneers would be the sixth seed after tiebreakers are applied. A lot of tiebreakers. Here's how it breaks down:
The first step in such a three-way tie is to eliminate all but one team from each division. Thus you first have to break the tie between Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Here's how that would go, in order of how the tiebreakers are applied:
a. Head-to-head: Bucs and Falcons split their two games. Still tied.
b. Best record in games played against division opponents: Both teams are 3-3. Still tied.
c. Best record in games played against common opponents: Both teams would be 9-3. Still tied.
d. Best record in games played against conference opponents: Both teams would be 8-4. Still tied.
e. Strength of victory: Here's where it gets really complicated. "Strength of victory" means the combined winning percentage of all of the teams that you beat. There would be only one victory that the Buccaneers and Falcons wouldn't share, as Tampa Bay beat Seattle and Atlanta beat St. Louis. By virtue of Seattle's win over St. Louis on Sunday, Seattle is now one game ahead of St. Louis, which means the Buccaneers' strength of victory would be higher. The Rams cannot pass the Seahawks in this scenario because, amazingly, Atlanta plays St. Louis in Week 17 and this scenario presupposes Atlanta beating the Rams. Otherwise, Atlanta wouldn't be in the tiebreaker at all. However, St. Louis could still equal the Seahawks by beating San Francisco in Week 16 and Seattle losing out. Thus, it could go to the next tiebreaker, which is...
f. Strength of schedule: This is the same concept as strength of victory except you include all the opponents you played, not just the ones you beat. In this case, the Bucs and Falcons would have only two games not in common, as Tampa Bay played Dallas and Seattle and Atlanta played Philadelphia and St. Louis. We've already established that Seattle and St. Louis would be tied, so it would come down to who has a better record between Dallas and Philadelphia. Obviously, in this scenario, Dallas would have a better record than Philadelphia. If Philadelphia does beat Dallas, then the Cowboys wouldn't have 11 wins and wouldn't be in this tiebreaker, and both Atlanta and Tampa Bay would go.
After the Buccaneers knock Atlanta out, they would lose the tiebreaker for the fifth seed to Dallas and would be the sixth seed.
Got that? There's a quiz on it tomorrow morning.
In all seriousness, it is a sign of how convoluted and tight this year's NFC playoff race is that last weekend's game between Seattle and St. Louis - two teams that came into the weekend at 2-11 - could be the deciding factor for the final Wild Card berth. Had St. Louis beaten Seattle, Atlanta would be holding the exact same advantage that is described in such detail above for the Buccaneers.
But wait, there's more...
- If the Buccaneers win their final two games and the Panthers lose their last two (at New York and New Orleans), Tampa Bay would win the NFC South and be the second seed in the NFC field, earning a first-round bye.
How is this? Well, both teams would be 11-5, and after the first three tiebreakers (head-to-head, division record, common games record) all came out as ties, the Bucs would win due to better conference record, 8-4 to 7-5. The difference there would be Tampa Bay beating Minnesota but losing to Denver while the Panthers lost to the Vikings but beat the Broncos.
If Atlanta wins their last two as well and it's a three-way tie for the division title, Carolina would be eliminated in the fourth step (conference record) and then the Buccaneers would beat the Falcons according to that long scenario posted above.
If the Buccaneers are 11-5 division winner and the Vikings are also 11-5 and winners of the NFC North, the Buccaneers would get the #2 seed thanks to their head-to-head win over Minnesota.
Before we get to the scenarios that involve the Bucs losing one of their last two games, let's check the current standings in the NFC, heading into the final two weeks of the season. Though these are the conference standings, they reflect division leaders, which is why some teams are ahead of others with superior records.
TeamW-LConf. Rec.Div. Rec.Remaining OpponentsOpp. Win Pct.^N.Y. Giants #&11-38-24-2car, @min.714Carolina *11-37-33-2@nyg, @no.643Minnesota *9-57-34-2atl, nyg.714Arizona #8-66-55-0@ne, sea.429Dallas ^%9-57-43-2bal, @phi.611Atlanta +9-56-43-3@min, stl.393----------------- Tampa Bay9-58-43-3sd, oak.321Chicago8-66-53-2gb, @hou.429Philadelphia %7-5-16-41-3cle, @was, dal.488Washington %7-76-42-3phi, @sf.463
Legend
# Clinched division
* Current division leader
& Currently holds the seeding tiebreaker over Carolina due to better conference record (8-2 to 7-3)
^ Currently holds the Wild Card tiebreaker over Atlanta and Tampa Bay due to better conference record over Atlanta (7-4 to 6-4) after Atlanta eliminates Tampa Bay from the three-way tie (see below)
+ Currently holds the Wild Card tiebreaker over Tampa Bay due to better record in common games (8-3 to 7-3)
% Record and/or opponent winning percentage does not yet include result of Monday night game between Philadelphia and Cleveland
Yes, the Buccaneers can still get into the playoffs if they lose one of their final two games - it really doesn't matter which one - but they're going to need some help. Most notably, they would need Minnesota to beat Atlanta next week.
At this point, Philadelphia also becomes a problem, since it can finish 10-5-1, so the Buccaneers also need Dallas to beat the Eagles in Week 17. To summarize, if the Bucs win just one of their last two games and Atlanta loses to Minnesota and Dallas beats Philadelphia, the Bucs would clinch a playoff spot.
If the first two-thirds of that scenario occur by Philadelphia beats Dallas, then the Buccaneers would need Chicago to win its final two games. In this scenario, Philadelphia gets the first Wild Card spot at 10-5-1 while Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and Tampa Bay all finish 10-6. The Bucs would first eliminate Atlanta based on the same scenarios as above. The head-to-head tiebreaker only applies between three teams if all three played each other, and Dallas and Chicago did not play each other. Thus, it goes to conference record and the Bucs would be 8-4 while both the Cowboys and Bears would be 7-5.
The worst scenario for the Buccaneers (beyond losing two more games, of course) is a loss in one of the last two games coupled with an Atlanta win over Minnesota. In that case, Atlanta would end up with a better record against common opponents and would have a tiebreaker hammer over the Bucs. There is a complicated scenario that would still put Tampa Bay into the playoffs under such a combination of events, but it involves about a half-dozen games going in the Bucs' favor and it's hardly worth contemplating at this point.
Of course, the scenario we've just spent so much time contemplating - a three-way tie between Atlanta, Dallas and Tampa Bay at 11-5 each - requires six specific outcomes, too. It's not exactly a far-fetched concept, though. The Bucs finish with two games at Raymond James Stadium, where they are 6-0 this year, against a pair of opponents currently under .500 (if not exactly out of the race). Atlanta has a tough test next weekend in Atlanta but finishes at home against the struggling Rams. And the Cowboys have two very tough remaining opponents in Baltimore and Philadelphia but they looked very strong on Sunday night beating the defending-champion Giants.
And as for the division-title race, Carolina has two road games remaining, one against the 11-3 Giants and one against the high-powered Saints, who are 6-1 at home this year.
All of which means that there exists the very real possibility that an 11-win team will be shut out of the postseason for the first time in 23 years. That last happened to Denver in 1985, when their 11-5 record wasn't good enough to beat out the 11-5 Jets and Patriots. That has never happened in the NFC since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970 and created the two conferences.
And that's how crazy this year's NFC playoff race is.