One way or another, the human population is going to be reduced
I’d intended to do this post anyway, but someone else’s post yesterday prompted me to move it up in the queue. No, don’t go looking for it, it’s locked. And this isn’t intended to be an attack against that person, either.
Anyway, on with it…
In 1944, 29 reindeer were introduced to St. Matthew Island, Alaska. With no predators and an abundant food supply, the population increased to 6,000 (over 200 times the initial population) in under 20 years. This is an example of resource drawdown. Borrowing from the future to increase survival now, and it leads to overshoot. The population grew, out of control, until all of the resources were depleted, at which point it crashed. Between the severe winter of 1963-64 and the resource depletion, by 1966 there were 42 reindeer left. In the 1980s, the island’s reindeer population disappeared completely.
(More from Catton.)
This shows the importance, and the relevance of the concept of carrying capacity. I’m just going to paste in here part of that article:
Temporary exceptions
It is possible for a species to exceed its carrying capacity temporarily. Population variance occurs as part of the natural selection process but may occur more dramatically in some instances. Due to a variety of factors a determinant of carrying capacity may lag behind another. A waste product of a species, for example, may build up to toxic levels more slowly than the food supply is exhausted. The result is a fluctuation in the population around the equilibrium point that is statistically significant. These fluctuations are increases or decreases in the population until either the population returns to the original equilibrium point or a new one is established. These fluctuations may be more devastating for an ecosystem compared to gradual population corrections since if it produces drastic decreases or increases the overall effect on the ecosystem may be such that other species within the ecosystem are in turn affected and begin to move with statistical significance around their equilibrium points. The fear is a domino like effect where the final consequences are unknown and may lead to collapses of certain species or whole ecosystems.
This is exactly what’s happening now. We have exceeded the Earth’s carrying capacity for humans. If our waste products hadn’t been building up to toxic levels, we might be OK. If we weren’t exhausting our future food supply by farming with unsustainable methods, we might be OK. But both of these factors, as well as others like groundwater mining are decreasing the carrying capacity. Meanwhile the population continues to increase, exacerbating these effects, and further decreasing the resources available for whoever happens to be around in another decade.
As the end of the quoted text says, as one aspect swings out of control, it unbalances other aspects, and the dominoes start falling.
In addition, more and more of the world is trying to become like the US, to live our outsized, overblown, overconsumptive lifestyle, and the downward spiral continues. Otis Graham has said that individual Americans have 32 times the ecological footprint of someone in India. It’s not just gross population, it’s how we’re living, but they are intricately intertwined. We can’t live our current flamboyantly destructive lifestyle without people to support it, and our lifestyle allows us to support the excess people. For now.
So what can we do? For starters, quit reproducing. The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement has a nice big table of reasons (excuses) people give for having kids, what they actually mean when they say those things, and what they should do instead. While they make some good points (and oversimplify others), it ultimately won’t be enough. Too little too late.
The third graph here (another Overshoot excerpt) shows what’s happening now. Our load continues to increase, but we’re decreasing the carrying capacity. At some point, we’re going to hit the same crash the reindeer did, and die off catastrophically. And it’s going to be sooner than any program like VHEMT or any other similar organization can achieve results. Before population peaks and starts to decline “naturally” (ie, on its own, by increasing HDI and people deciding to have fewer kids), people are going to start dying en masse because of what we've done to the planet.
As for other plans, other solutions, I’ll come back to those in another post, once I’ve gotten through my overview of contributers to our impending collapse.
Anyway, on with it…
In 1944, 29 reindeer were introduced to St. Matthew Island, Alaska. With no predators and an abundant food supply, the population increased to 6,000 (over 200 times the initial population) in under 20 years. This is an example of resource drawdown. Borrowing from the future to increase survival now, and it leads to overshoot. The population grew, out of control, until all of the resources were depleted, at which point it crashed. Between the severe winter of 1963-64 and the resource depletion, by 1966 there were 42 reindeer left. In the 1980s, the island’s reindeer population disappeared completely.
(More from Catton.)
This shows the importance, and the relevance of the concept of carrying capacity. I’m just going to paste in here part of that article:
Temporary exceptions
It is possible for a species to exceed its carrying capacity temporarily. Population variance occurs as part of the natural selection process but may occur more dramatically in some instances. Due to a variety of factors a determinant of carrying capacity may lag behind another. A waste product of a species, for example, may build up to toxic levels more slowly than the food supply is exhausted. The result is a fluctuation in the population around the equilibrium point that is statistically significant. These fluctuations are increases or decreases in the population until either the population returns to the original equilibrium point or a new one is established. These fluctuations may be more devastating for an ecosystem compared to gradual population corrections since if it produces drastic decreases or increases the overall effect on the ecosystem may be such that other species within the ecosystem are in turn affected and begin to move with statistical significance around their equilibrium points. The fear is a domino like effect where the final consequences are unknown and may lead to collapses of certain species or whole ecosystems.
This is exactly what’s happening now. We have exceeded the Earth’s carrying capacity for humans. If our waste products hadn’t been building up to toxic levels, we might be OK. If we weren’t exhausting our future food supply by farming with unsustainable methods, we might be OK. But both of these factors, as well as others like groundwater mining are decreasing the carrying capacity. Meanwhile the population continues to increase, exacerbating these effects, and further decreasing the resources available for whoever happens to be around in another decade.
As the end of the quoted text says, as one aspect swings out of control, it unbalances other aspects, and the dominoes start falling.
In addition, more and more of the world is trying to become like the US, to live our outsized, overblown, overconsumptive lifestyle, and the downward spiral continues. Otis Graham has said that individual Americans have 32 times the ecological footprint of someone in India. It’s not just gross population, it’s how we’re living, but they are intricately intertwined. We can’t live our current flamboyantly destructive lifestyle without people to support it, and our lifestyle allows us to support the excess people. For now.
So what can we do? For starters, quit reproducing. The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement has a nice big table of reasons (excuses) people give for having kids, what they actually mean when they say those things, and what they should do instead. While they make some good points (and oversimplify others), it ultimately won’t be enough. Too little too late.
The third graph here (another Overshoot excerpt) shows what’s happening now. Our load continues to increase, but we’re decreasing the carrying capacity. At some point, we’re going to hit the same crash the reindeer did, and die off catastrophically. And it’s going to be sooner than any program like VHEMT or any other similar organization can achieve results. Before population peaks and starts to decline “naturally” (ie, on its own, by increasing HDI and people deciding to have fewer kids), people are going to start dying en masse because of what we've done to the planet.
As for other plans, other solutions, I’ll come back to those in another post, once I’ve gotten through my overview of contributers to our impending collapse.