Reflections on Iowa:
Well, the short version is that I was dramatically wrong in regard to Edwards taking first place in Iowa; the second-choicers went overwhelmingly for him, but Obama managed to talk a huge number of people who had never before been to an Iowa caucus into showing up. My hat’s off to him.
My take is that while I’d much rather have President Edwards than President Obama, I’ll take Obama against Clinton, and Obama against any Republican.
I think that what Iowa showed is that Clinton was running on the I’m-inevitable- give-in- and-join-my-throng concept, and in the final version, it didn’t sell. In both parties, people voted for Something Quite Different, and to turn up their nose at The Establishment That Takes Us For Granted As Thralls. Well, yeah, yeah, they always have in the past…
Hillary is in huge trouble at this point; all she would be able to do at this point before New Hampshire votes on next Tuesday is to try some sort of really nasty negative stuff, and I think it would backfire badly. Edwards was quite correct when he said that people wanted change, and his pressures on that point, I think, moved along the area of debate towards that line. The thing that really made us all sit up and pay notice was in the huge, motivated turnout. People are honked off - seriously honked off, and they want someone to cheer on and succeed in turning the country around. Clinton just doesn’t have the style to pull that off.
The thing is that Obama comes across as an stirring idealist, and Edwards as a blazing take-no-prisoners fighter. My feeling is that as much as I prefer Edwards for that quality, I think that Obama may be seen as a far deeper, more transfigurating character, and more likely to take the brass ring in the end.
As to the Republicans, if things go on, I see McCain taking Romney in New Hampshire, and Huckabee beating McCain and Romney in South Carolina (in that order). The problem is that the Establishment Big-Business Republicans will never go for Huckabee, and the more they try to beat him up, the more damage they will do to their candidates. And McCain isn’t what you’d really call an Establishment Republican. You could see a situation where Romney was maneuvered into a nomination, and Huckabee running on a third-party Conservative ticket, and the GOP imploding.
Stay tuned. The longer this goes on, the nastier the Establishment guys are going to play. They’re running scared.