Runner-runner? State of the race
Two days of unbridled paranoia until the election.
Electoral Vote tallies:
538.com: 344-194 (350-188, 346.5-191.5, 344-194, 348-190, 351-187)
InTrade: 353-185 (364-174, nc) (342-196 using EV averaging)
EV.com : 364-171-3 (353-185, nc, 364-171-3, 375-157-6, 364-157-17)
RCP.com: 353-185 (nc, nc, 364-174, 375-163)
Intrade contracts: O: 87.5% M: 12% (85-16, 85-17, 85-16, 86-14)
538.com Obama win percentage: 96% (97%, 96%, 96%, 97%)
RCP National Average: O +6.9% (6.4, 6.0, 6.3, 5.9, 6.2, 7.3)
Tracking Poll Average: O +6.6% (+6.2, 5.9, 5.2, 5.0)
How much better Obama is doing on average than Kerry in
battleground states: 11.6% (11.5%, 11.7%, 12.1, 12.2%, 11.7%, 11.5%)
Senate outlook: 538.com, 59-41, EV.com, 59-41 (includes
Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats)
Best news for Obama? No doubt about it, the national polls.
The RCP average is now O +6.9, a full point bump from it's nadir four
days ago, and he's above 50%, to 50.5%. I can only guess how much
better it feels to be up 6.9% than 5.9%, but I think it's like the
difference between knowing you can only go bust with a two-outer vs
runner-runner perfect. The three different versions of the Gallup
poll now all show Obama up by at least 10%.
And Florida is solidifying Obama's lead, now up to O +4.2% from the
3.5% we reported a couple of days ago. The troika of FL, OH and PA now
sit (using the RCP averages) at 4.2%, 4.2% and 7.0%. While OH and PA
have moved down, those have to be pretty numbers when any one of those
states pretty much guarantees the election at this point. (The PA
average is buoyed by an O +14 poll taken five days ago; if that
drops off the average would be O +5.2)
Best news for McCain? No doubt about it, Pennsylvania. Obama
is still holding at 51% in the very latest two polls (ARG and
Rasmussen, both O +4) but McCain's percentage is increasing rapidly.
A set of polls from Mason-Dixon show McCain improving in key states:
Ohio: M +2, North Carolina, M +3, Virginia: O +3, Nevada: O +4.
According to 538.com, this poller shows a house lean towards
Republicans, but not big enough to discount these results.
And for some reason fivethirtyeight.com's model shows a sharp, if
small, dip, despite the bad news for McCain on the national polling
front. The Super Tracker, shown below, moved down, as did a number of
battleground state probabilities (he ran his model before the
Mason-Dixon reports, discussed above, came out this morning).
Possibily this is just a reflection of Silver's assertion that the
race tends to get closer in the last days (which he presumably built
into the model). It makes sense that the two lines (red and yellow)
converge as we get closer and closer to the election.
STATE OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
538 probs Intrade Electoral-Vote.com RCP Avg. Kerry-Bush
spread differential
NH: 98 90-13 53-40 O +10.7 +12
PA: 98 86-13 52-43 O +7.0 +7
WV: 01 12-90 43-51 M +8.5 +5
VA: 94 83-15 51-44 O +5.0 +16
NC: 66 61-37 49-47 O +0.3 +14
GA: 09 27-82 46-49 M +3.0 +14
FL: 64 70-31 48-45 O +4.2 +8
OH: 83 77-20 50-44 O +4.2 +8
MI: 100 93-06 52-39 O +12.7 +10
IN: 34 41-58 46-48 M +0.5 +19
WI: 100 91-09 53-42 O +11.0 +8
MN: 100 93-06 54-40 O +11.5 +11
MO: 43 49-54 48-47 M +0.7 +8
ND: 26 28-75 45-45 ---- +27
CO: 94 85-17 51-44 O +5.5 +12
NM: 99 92-16 53-45 O +7.3 +9
MT: 10 28-80 45-49 M +3.8 +16
AZ: 04 19-82 44-49 M +3.5 +6
NV: 83 80-21 50-43 O +5.8 +10
Electoral Vote tallies:
538.com: 344-194 (350-188, 346.5-191.5, 344-194, 348-190, 351-187)
InTrade: 353-185 (364-174, nc) (342-196 using EV averaging)
EV.com : 364-171-3 (353-185, nc, 364-171-3, 375-157-6, 364-157-17)
RCP.com: 353-185 (nc, nc, 364-174, 375-163)
Intrade contracts: O: 87.5% M: 12% (85-16, 85-17, 85-16, 86-14)
538.com Obama win percentage: 96% (97%, 96%, 96%, 97%)
RCP National Average: O +6.9% (6.4, 6.0, 6.3, 5.9, 6.2, 7.3)
Tracking Poll Average: O +6.6% (+6.2, 5.9, 5.2, 5.0)
How much better Obama is doing on average than Kerry in
battleground states: 11.6% (11.5%, 11.7%, 12.1, 12.2%, 11.7%, 11.5%)
Senate outlook: 538.com, 59-41, EV.com, 59-41 (includes
Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats)
Best news for Obama? No doubt about it, the national polls.
The RCP average is now O +6.9, a full point bump from it's nadir four
days ago, and he's above 50%, to 50.5%. I can only guess how much
better it feels to be up 6.9% than 5.9%, but I think it's like the
difference between knowing you can only go bust with a two-outer vs
runner-runner perfect. The three different versions of the Gallup
poll now all show Obama up by at least 10%.
And Florida is solidifying Obama's lead, now up to O +4.2% from the
3.5% we reported a couple of days ago. The troika of FL, OH and PA now
sit (using the RCP averages) at 4.2%, 4.2% and 7.0%. While OH and PA
have moved down, those have to be pretty numbers when any one of those
states pretty much guarantees the election at this point. (The PA
average is buoyed by an O +14 poll taken five days ago; if that
drops off the average would be O +5.2)
Best news for McCain? No doubt about it, Pennsylvania. Obama
is still holding at 51% in the very latest two polls (ARG and
Rasmussen, both O +4) but McCain's percentage is increasing rapidly.
A set of polls from Mason-Dixon show McCain improving in key states:
Ohio: M +2, North Carolina, M +3, Virginia: O +3, Nevada: O +4.
According to 538.com, this poller shows a house lean towards
Republicans, but not big enough to discount these results.
And for some reason fivethirtyeight.com's model shows a sharp, if
small, dip, despite the bad news for McCain on the national polling
front. The Super Tracker, shown below, moved down, as did a number of
battleground state probabilities (he ran his model before the
Mason-Dixon reports, discussed above, came out this morning).
Possibily this is just a reflection of Silver's assertion that the
race tends to get closer in the last days (which he presumably built
into the model). It makes sense that the two lines (red and yellow)
converge as we get closer and closer to the election.
STATE OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
538 probs Intrade Electoral-Vote.com RCP Avg. Kerry-Bush
spread differential
NH: 98 90-13 53-40 O +10.7 +12
PA: 98 86-13 52-43 O +7.0 +7
WV: 01 12-90 43-51 M +8.5 +5
VA: 94 83-15 51-44 O +5.0 +16
NC: 66 61-37 49-47 O +0.3 +14
GA: 09 27-82 46-49 M +3.0 +14
FL: 64 70-31 48-45 O +4.2 +8
OH: 83 77-20 50-44 O +4.2 +8
MI: 100 93-06 52-39 O +12.7 +10
IN: 34 41-58 46-48 M +0.5 +19
WI: 100 91-09 53-42 O +11.0 +8
MN: 100 93-06 54-40 O +11.5 +11
MO: 43 49-54 48-47 M +0.7 +8
ND: 26 28-75 45-45 ---- +27
CO: 94 85-17 51-44 O +5.5 +12
NM: 99 92-16 53-45 O +7.3 +9
MT: 10 28-80 45-49 M +3.8 +16
AZ: 04 19-82 44-49 M +3.5 +6
NV: 83 80-21 50-43 O +5.8 +10