Steady as She Goes, State of the Race
Four (four!) days until the election.
Electoral Vote tallies:
538.com: 346.5-191.5 (344-194) (348-190) (351-187)
InTrade: 364-174 (no change) (339-199 using EV averaging)
EV.com : 353-185 (364-171-3, 375-157-6, 364-157-17)
RCP.com: 364-174 (375-163)
Intrade contracts: O: 85% M: 17% (85-16, 86-14, 88-12)
538.com Obama win percentage: 96% (96%) (97%)
RCP National Average: O +6.0 (+6.3, +5.9%, +6.2, +7.3%)
Tracking Poll Average: O +5.9 (5.2, 5.0)
How much better Obama is doing on average than Kerry in
battleground states: 11.7% (12.1, 12.2%, 11.7%, 11.5%)
Senate outlook: 538.com, 59-41, EV.com, 59-41 (includes
Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats)
Best news for Obama? The RCP averages for North Carolina, +2.6,
Ohio: O +5.8, and Florida: O +3.5. In three absolutely critical
states for McCain Obama now has a lead that is at or beyond the margin
of error.
The tracking polls started to tick up again (to +5.9%, from 5.2%
yesterday).
It looks like Colorado is in the bag for Obama based on polling
of early voters (see my immediately previous LiveJournal entry).
And Joe the Plumber didn't show up as scheduled at a McCain rally,
leaving the Senator flummoxed for a few seconds. (McCain should know
that plumbers never show up on time.)
But the best news is another day was put to bed with no obvious reason
for concern.
Best news for McCain? Two polls out of Virginia, both O +4.
That still leaves the RCP average at O +6.5, and in both of the
aformentioned polls Obama is getting 51% of the vote, but if he's
going to pull Virginia out (and he pretty much has to) it's a start.
And a poll out of Pennsylvania, O +5. Coupled with yesterday's O +4
and the PA tracking poll ticking downward, it seems like he has in
fact narrowed the gap. Still, as with Virginia, Obama's RCP absolute
percentage of the vote remains above 50% (52.3%). (The O +5 poll is
not averaged in at RCP, being a partisan Republican poll; it has Obama
at 49%)
STATE OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
538 probs Intrade Electoral-Vote.com RCP Avg. Kerry-Bush
spread differential
NH: 98 87-13 53-40 O +12.3 +12
PA: 98 86-18 52-41 O +9.8 +9
WV: 02 14-90 43-51 M +8.0 +5
VA: 95 84-22 51-44 O +6.5 +16
NC: 61 62-42 49-47 O +2.6 +14
GA: 08 26-79 46-49 M +4.2 +14
FL: 71 66-34 48-45 O +3.5 +8
OH: 82 80-25 50-44 O +5.8 +8
MI: 100 92-07 52-41 O +14.7 +8
IN: 41 43-62 46-48 M +1.7 +19
WI: 100 92-09 53-42 O +11.8 +10
MN: 99 93-05 54-40 O +12.1 +11
MO: 54 53-49 48-47 M +0.4 +8
ND: 17 28-75 45-45 ---- +27
CO: 93 84-17 51-44 O +6.5 +12
NM: 98 88-13 54-44 O +7.3 +11
MT: 12 28-79 45-49 M +2.0 +16
AZ: 03 16-85 44-49 M +5.2 +5
NV: 83 80-25 50-43 O +7.0 +10
The first column is the 538.com projected probability in percent that
Obama will win the state (the probability that McCain will win is
100 minus this number).
The second column has the current Intrade contract prices for Obama
and McCain. These should approximately add up to 100, representing
probability estimates similar to 538.com, but will not always do so
due to a fairly low volume market.
The third data column (Electoral-vote.com) is polling percentages
using polling data from the previous week (or prior, if no such data
exists) that the site considers valid (i.e., polls not commissioned by
partisan interests), Obama's polling percentage first, then McCain's.
The fourth data column (Real Clear Politics) is the average difference
in polling percentage between Obama and McCain using recent polling
data that its site considers valid.
The fifth data column (Kerry-Bush differential) is the difference
between how well Obama is doing in the electoral-vote.com polling
statistics vs. how well Kerry performed against Bush in the 2004
election.
Electoral Vote tallies:
538.com: 346.5-191.5 (344-194) (348-190) (351-187)
InTrade: 364-174 (no change) (339-199 using EV averaging)
EV.com : 353-185 (364-171-3, 375-157-6, 364-157-17)
RCP.com: 364-174 (375-163)
Intrade contracts: O: 85% M: 17% (85-16, 86-14, 88-12)
538.com Obama win percentage: 96% (96%) (97%)
RCP National Average: O +6.0 (+6.3, +5.9%, +6.2, +7.3%)
Tracking Poll Average: O +5.9 (5.2, 5.0)
How much better Obama is doing on average than Kerry in
battleground states: 11.7% (12.1, 12.2%, 11.7%, 11.5%)
Senate outlook: 538.com, 59-41, EV.com, 59-41 (includes
Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats)
Best news for Obama? The RCP averages for North Carolina, +2.6,
Ohio: O +5.8, and Florida: O +3.5. In three absolutely critical
states for McCain Obama now has a lead that is at or beyond the margin
of error.
The tracking polls started to tick up again (to +5.9%, from 5.2%
yesterday).
It looks like Colorado is in the bag for Obama based on polling
of early voters (see my immediately previous LiveJournal entry).
And Joe the Plumber didn't show up as scheduled at a McCain rally,
leaving the Senator flummoxed for a few seconds. (McCain should know
that plumbers never show up on time.)
But the best news is another day was put to bed with no obvious reason
for concern.
Best news for McCain? Two polls out of Virginia, both O +4.
That still leaves the RCP average at O +6.5, and in both of the
aformentioned polls Obama is getting 51% of the vote, but if he's
going to pull Virginia out (and he pretty much has to) it's a start.
And a poll out of Pennsylvania, O +5. Coupled with yesterday's O +4
and the PA tracking poll ticking downward, it seems like he has in
fact narrowed the gap. Still, as with Virginia, Obama's RCP absolute
percentage of the vote remains above 50% (52.3%). (The O +5 poll is
not averaged in at RCP, being a partisan Republican poll; it has Obama
at 49%)
STATE OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
538 probs Intrade Electoral-Vote.com RCP Avg. Kerry-Bush
spread differential
NH: 98 87-13 53-40 O +12.3 +12
PA: 98 86-18 52-41 O +9.8 +9
WV: 02 14-90 43-51 M +8.0 +5
VA: 95 84-22 51-44 O +6.5 +16
NC: 61 62-42 49-47 O +2.6 +14
GA: 08 26-79 46-49 M +4.2 +14
FL: 71 66-34 48-45 O +3.5 +8
OH: 82 80-25 50-44 O +5.8 +8
MI: 100 92-07 52-41 O +14.7 +8
IN: 41 43-62 46-48 M +1.7 +19
WI: 100 92-09 53-42 O +11.8 +10
MN: 99 93-05 54-40 O +12.1 +11
MO: 54 53-49 48-47 M +0.4 +8
ND: 17 28-75 45-45 ---- +27
CO: 93 84-17 51-44 O +6.5 +12
NM: 98 88-13 54-44 O +7.3 +11
MT: 12 28-79 45-49 M +2.0 +16
AZ: 03 16-85 44-49 M +5.2 +5
NV: 83 80-25 50-43 O +7.0 +10
The first column is the 538.com projected probability in percent that
Obama will win the state (the probability that McCain will win is
100 minus this number).
The second column has the current Intrade contract prices for Obama
and McCain. These should approximately add up to 100, representing
probability estimates similar to 538.com, but will not always do so
due to a fairly low volume market.
The third data column (Electoral-vote.com) is polling percentages
using polling data from the previous week (or prior, if no such data
exists) that the site considers valid (i.e., polls not commissioned by
partisan interests), Obama's polling percentage first, then McCain's.
The fourth data column (Real Clear Politics) is the average difference
in polling percentage between Obama and McCain using recent polling
data that its site considers valid.
The fifth data column (Kerry-Bush differential) is the difference
between how well Obama is doing in the electoral-vote.com polling
statistics vs. how well Kerry performed against Bush in the 2004
election.