The Pollsters Are About to Rest.
Oh my, oh my. Fourteen national polls were release since I last reported, and that was yesterday!
PPP: 50-48, PPP: 50-48 (no, not a duplicate, two independent polls done by the same organization at the same time, one at the behest of some other org), YouGov: 49-47, Rasmussen: 48-49, Rand: 50-45, Democracy Corps: 49-45, Zogby: 46-48, Gravis: 48-48, Ipsos/Reuters: 48-47, Gallup: 48-49 (yes, back from the dead, and down to Earth...), ARG: 49-49, Monmouth: 48-48, ABC: 50-47, UPI/CVoter: 49-48.
And now for the final polling average (drumroll, kaiser roll, backroll, please):
Obama: 48.7
Romney: 47.6
Varying interval data:
Obama : 48.7 48.7 47.5 47.9 47.8 47.7 47.6 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7
46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8 45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7
46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 47.6 47.5 46.7 47.7 47.6 47.5 47.4 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3
45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0 45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6
45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +1.1 +1.2 +0.8 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4
+0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8 +0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1
+0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Obama heads into election day with a 1% edge in the polling of likely (and already voted) voters. Will the likely voter model prove apropros? If Obama wins by significantly more, it may be that a hybrid likely/registered voter model would have been more appropriate. The Obama campaign has, after all, been claiming to be concentrating on "sporadic" voters who probably would fail a likely voter screen. (But this is only in the swing states, so the effect, if it exists, would be muted in national results). If Obama loses the popular vote, then the Rasmussen and Gallup models will have proved more appropriate.
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 67% 64% 66% 66% 62% 63% 58% 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57%
Romney: 33% 37% 34% 38% 38% 43% 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 91% 86% 81% 77% 75% 74% 68% 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72%
Romney: 09% 15% 19% 23% 25% 26% 32% 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28%
Is Obama a 2:1 favorite, or a 9:1 favorite? That's a pretty big difference! If Obama loses I suppose that will make it seem like Intrade was much more realistic that FiveThirtyEight. But if Obama wins, who will ever be able to say?
Best news for Obama: The conditional probability that Obama wins given that he wins Ohio is 97% according to Nate Silver, and Obama is still leading in Ohio by what appears to be a statistically significant margin.
Best news for Romney: Obama's lead went down by 0.1% today from yesterday in the national polling. It might be noise, but 0.1% when you're in the range of 1% isn't anything to sneeze at in terms of increasing your odds of winning when they seem small.
I'm going to list two numbers. One the usual two-week average. And another, the poll average
just for polls that finished in November. November average is listed first, then the usual two-week.
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
OH: +2.7/+2.4 +2.5 +1.8 +2.1 +1.9 +2.4 +1.8 +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0
+1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3
VA: +1.0/+0.1 +0.2 +0.0 -0.1 +0.3 -0.1 -1.0 +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6
+1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8
FL: -1.6/-1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0
+1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6
IA: +2.5/+2.2 +2.3 +2.0 +3.2 +2.7 +2.0 +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0
-2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
WI: +5.0/+4.3 +4.3 +4.2 +3.8 +3.5 +3.0 +2.7 +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6
+2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0
MI: +3.8/+3.4 +3.2 +4.3 +3.0 +3.0 +3.0 +5.3 +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
PA: +4.0/+3.8 +4.0 +4.6 +4.6 +4.7 +4.7 +4.6 +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
NH: +2.0/+1.6 +2.1 +2.1 +1.3 +1.4 +1.1 +0.1 -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5
+4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0
NC: -2.0/-2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -3.3 -3.0 -3.4 -4.0 -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6
-0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3
CO: +6.0/+1.6 +0.4 +0.2 +0.5 +0.3 +0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3
+1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0
NV: +4.0/+2.9 +2.7 +2.7 +2.4 +2.6 +2.6 +2.8 +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5
+2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
The Colorado and Nevada November results only have one poll to average, but the effect should be clear regardless. Aside from Florida, in every state Obama has improved over his two-week average with just the November averages, while the two-week average has remained pretty much the same from yesterdays's report (as you might think).
Perhaps I should go back in time and change my post from yesterday giving Colorado to Romney, but we'll stick with it and see what happens.
Aloha.
PPP: 50-48, PPP: 50-48 (no, not a duplicate, two independent polls done by the same organization at the same time, one at the behest of some other org), YouGov: 49-47, Rasmussen: 48-49, Rand: 50-45, Democracy Corps: 49-45, Zogby: 46-48, Gravis: 48-48, Ipsos/Reuters: 48-47, Gallup: 48-49 (yes, back from the dead, and down to Earth...), ARG: 49-49, Monmouth: 48-48, ABC: 50-47, UPI/CVoter: 49-48.
And now for the final polling average (drumroll, kaiser roll, backroll, please):
Obama: 48.7
Romney: 47.6
Varying interval data:
Obama : 48.7 48.7 47.5 47.9 47.8 47.7 47.6 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7
46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8 45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7
46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 47.6 47.5 46.7 47.7 47.6 47.5 47.4 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3
45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0 45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6
45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +1.1 +1.2 +0.8 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4
+0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8 +0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1
+0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Obama heads into election day with a 1% edge in the polling of likely (and already voted) voters. Will the likely voter model prove apropros? If Obama wins by significantly more, it may be that a hybrid likely/registered voter model would have been more appropriate. The Obama campaign has, after all, been claiming to be concentrating on "sporadic" voters who probably would fail a likely voter screen. (But this is only in the swing states, so the effect, if it exists, would be muted in national results). If Obama loses the popular vote, then the Rasmussen and Gallup models will have proved more appropriate.
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 67% 64% 66% 66% 62% 63% 58% 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57%
Romney: 33% 37% 34% 38% 38% 43% 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 91% 86% 81% 77% 75% 74% 68% 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72%
Romney: 09% 15% 19% 23% 25% 26% 32% 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28%
Is Obama a 2:1 favorite, or a 9:1 favorite? That's a pretty big difference! If Obama loses I suppose that will make it seem like Intrade was much more realistic that FiveThirtyEight. But if Obama wins, who will ever be able to say?
Best news for Obama: The conditional probability that Obama wins given that he wins Ohio is 97% according to Nate Silver, and Obama is still leading in Ohio by what appears to be a statistically significant margin.
Best news for Romney: Obama's lead went down by 0.1% today from yesterday in the national polling. It might be noise, but 0.1% when you're in the range of 1% isn't anything to sneeze at in terms of increasing your odds of winning when they seem small.
I'm going to list two numbers. One the usual two-week average. And another, the poll average
just for polls that finished in November. November average is listed first, then the usual two-week.
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
OH: +2.7/+2.4 +2.5 +1.8 +2.1 +1.9 +2.4 +1.8 +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0
+1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3
VA: +1.0/+0.1 +0.2 +0.0 -0.1 +0.3 -0.1 -1.0 +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6
+1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8
FL: -1.6/-1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0
+1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6
IA: +2.5/+2.2 +2.3 +2.0 +3.2 +2.7 +2.0 +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0
-2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
WI: +5.0/+4.3 +4.3 +4.2 +3.8 +3.5 +3.0 +2.7 +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6
+2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0
MI: +3.8/+3.4 +3.2 +4.3 +3.0 +3.0 +3.0 +5.3 +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
PA: +4.0/+3.8 +4.0 +4.6 +4.6 +4.7 +4.7 +4.6 +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
NH: +2.0/+1.6 +2.1 +2.1 +1.3 +1.4 +1.1 +0.1 -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5
+4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0
NC: -2.0/-2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -3.3 -3.0 -3.4 -4.0 -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6
-0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3
CO: +6.0/+1.6 +0.4 +0.2 +0.5 +0.3 +0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3
+1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0
NV: +4.0/+2.9 +2.7 +2.7 +2.4 +2.6 +2.6 +2.8 +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5
+2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
The Colorado and Nevada November results only have one poll to average, but the effect should be clear regardless. Aside from Florida, in every state Obama has improved over his two-week average with just the November averages, while the two-week average has remained pretty much the same from yesterdays's report (as you might think).
Perhaps I should go back in time and change my post from yesterday giving Colorado to Romney, but we'll stick with it and see what happens.
Aloha.