The Pollsters Never Rest.
Okay, a couple pollsters took the day off, possibly because they were worried about drowning. But most tracking polls updated today, and those that didn't did yesterday.
Without even calculating the average yet, this has to be the closest set of numbers in many, many a year. Out of eleven polls I've recorded, eight are tied or within one point, one is within two points... and then there's Gallup and RAND, showing a difference of opinion betwixt them of 11% (!)
So here we go: RAND: 51-45, Politico: 49-48, , Rasmussen: 47-49, UPI/CVoter: 48-47, Gallup: 46-51, PPP: 48-49, ABC: 49-49, IBP/TIPP: 45-44, Pew: 47-47, ARG: 48-48, Reuters: 48-47.
Obama: 47.8
Romney: 47.6
Varying interval data:
Obama : 47.8 47.7 47.6 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8
45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 47.6 47.5 47.4 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0
45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8
+0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Wow. Four samples over almost two weeks and everything has held steady at Obama +0.2%. I'm sure no matter whether the polling changes one way or another or stays the same in the next few days, Hurricane Sandy will be blamed -- either by the side that sees the slippage, or by both.
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 62% 63% 58% 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56%
Romney: 38% 38% 43% 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 75% 74% 68% 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67%
Romney: 25% 26% 32% 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33%
Best news for Obama: Hurricane Sandy? Making the President look Presidential, and reminding people of Katrina? And did I mention Obama is still leading in Ohio?
Best news for Romney: A Rasmussen poll out of Ohio showing Romney up by 2%. Of course only Republicans believe any poll put out by Rasmussen, but then again Romney is a Republican -- "as far as I know."
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
OH: +1.9 +2.4 +1.8 +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3
VA: +0.3 -0.1 -1.0 +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8
FL: -1.7 -1.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6
IA: +2.7 +2.0 +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
WI: +3.5 +3.0 +2.7 +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0
MI: +3.0 +3.0 +5.3 +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
PA: +4.7 +4.7 +4.6 +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
NH: +1.4 +1.1 +0.1 -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0
NC: -3.0 -3.4 -4.0 -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3
CO: +0.3 +0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0
NV: +2.6 +2.6 +2.8 +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Virginia + Iowa, or Virginia + Colorado, or Virginia + New Hampshire, can substitute for Ohio in Obama's path to an electoral college victory. Or CO +IA + NH will work even without OH or VA.
Virginia's polls close at 7:00 PM ET. Ohio's at 7:30 ET. New Hampshire starts reporting at 7:00 PM, although some of its polls stay open until 8:00 PM.
Without even calculating the average yet, this has to be the closest set of numbers in many, many a year. Out of eleven polls I've recorded, eight are tied or within one point, one is within two points... and then there's Gallup and RAND, showing a difference of opinion betwixt them of 11% (!)
So here we go: RAND: 51-45, Politico: 49-48, , Rasmussen: 47-49, UPI/CVoter: 48-47, Gallup: 46-51, PPP: 48-49, ABC: 49-49, IBP/TIPP: 45-44, Pew: 47-47, ARG: 48-48, Reuters: 48-47.
Obama: 47.8
Romney: 47.6
Varying interval data:
Obama : 47.8 47.7 47.6 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8
45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 47.6 47.5 47.4 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0
45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8
+0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Wow. Four samples over almost two weeks and everything has held steady at Obama +0.2%. I'm sure no matter whether the polling changes one way or another or stays the same in the next few days, Hurricane Sandy will be blamed -- either by the side that sees the slippage, or by both.
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 62% 63% 58% 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56%
Romney: 38% 38% 43% 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 75% 74% 68% 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67%
Romney: 25% 26% 32% 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33%
Best news for Obama: Hurricane Sandy? Making the President look Presidential, and reminding people of Katrina? And did I mention Obama is still leading in Ohio?
Best news for Romney: A Rasmussen poll out of Ohio showing Romney up by 2%. Of course only Republicans believe any poll put out by Rasmussen, but then again Romney is a Republican -- "as far as I know."
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
OH: +1.9 +2.4 +1.8 +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3
VA: +0.3 -0.1 -1.0 +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8
FL: -1.7 -1.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6
IA: +2.7 +2.0 +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
WI: +3.5 +3.0 +2.7 +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0
MI: +3.0 +3.0 +5.3 +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
PA: +4.7 +4.7 +4.6 +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
NH: +1.4 +1.1 +0.1 -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0
NC: -3.0 -3.4 -4.0 -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3
CO: +0.3 +0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0
NV: +2.6 +2.6 +2.8 +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Virginia + Iowa, or Virginia + Colorado, or Virginia + New Hampshire, can substitute for Ohio in Obama's path to an electoral college victory. Or CO +IA + NH will work even without OH or VA.
Virginia's polls close at 7:00 PM ET. Ohio's at 7:30 ET. New Hampshire starts reporting at 7:00 PM, although some of its polls stay open until 8:00 PM.