The Pollsters Never Rest.
Waiting for Gallup is not like waiting for Godot. Aside from a glitch one or two days ago, they always have their latest tracking results out at 10:00 AM PT sharp. There are at least seventeen national polls that have come out since I last posted, including eight tracking polls.
The crystal ball, shall we say, is still murky.
Here are the tracking polls: Rand: 49-45, PPP: 48-48, ABC: 48-49, Gallup: 47-50, IBD/TIPP: 47-45, Ipsos: 47-46, Rasmussen: 46-50, UPI/CV: 49-47.
Here are the non-tracking polls: YouGov: 48-46, Arg: 47-49, CBS: 48-46, Democracy Corps: 49-46, Politico: 47-49, Monmouth: 45-48, NBC: 47-47, Zogby: 50-47, PPP: 48-48.
(Yes, PPP has both a tracking poll and a once a week on Tuesday non-tracking poll.)
Tracking polls average:
Obama: 47.6%
Romney: 47.5%
Non-tracking polls average:
Obama: 47.7%
Romney: 47.3%
Full polling average:
Obama: 47.6%
Romney 47.4%
Varying interval (now three and four day, previously five or weekly) data:
Obama : 47.6 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8
45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 47.4 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0
45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8
+0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 58% 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54%
Romney: 43% 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 68% 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67% 68%
Romney: 32% 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33% 32%
Best news for Obama: According to Nate Silver, the conditional probability of winning the election given that you've won Ohio is 95%, and Obama is still winning Ohio.
Best news for Romney: You don't need to know anything about Geography to be President.
Weird polling result of the day: There is an 11% gap between Gallup's (+11) and Rasumussen's (+0) Presidential approval rating tracking polls for today.
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
OH: +1.8 +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
VA: -1.0 +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
FL: -2.5 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
IA: +2.0 +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
WI: +2.7 +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0 -
MI: +5.3 +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
PA: +4.6 +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
NH: +0.1 -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
NC: -4.0 -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3 -0.4
CO: -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
NV: +2.8 +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
At this point we could well be down to OH, VA, IA, NH and CO as having a significant uncertainty in the outcome, although the early voting data suggests that FL and NC might be closer than they appear here.
The crystal ball, shall we say, is still murky.
Here are the tracking polls: Rand: 49-45, PPP: 48-48, ABC: 48-49, Gallup: 47-50, IBD/TIPP: 47-45, Ipsos: 47-46, Rasmussen: 46-50, UPI/CV: 49-47.
Here are the non-tracking polls: YouGov: 48-46, Arg: 47-49, CBS: 48-46, Democracy Corps: 49-46, Politico: 47-49, Monmouth: 45-48, NBC: 47-47, Zogby: 50-47, PPP: 48-48.
(Yes, PPP has both a tracking poll and a once a week on Tuesday non-tracking poll.)
Tracking polls average:
Obama: 47.6%
Romney: 47.5%
Non-tracking polls average:
Obama: 47.7%
Romney: 47.3%
Full polling average:
Obama: 47.6%
Romney 47.4%
Varying interval (now three and four day, previously five or weekly) data:
Obama : 47.6 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8
45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 47.4 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0
45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8
+0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 58% 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54%
Romney: 43% 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 68% 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67% 68%
Romney: 32% 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33% 32%
Best news for Obama: According to Nate Silver, the conditional probability of winning the election given that you've won Ohio is 95%, and Obama is still winning Ohio.
Best news for Romney: You don't need to know anything about Geography to be President.
Weird polling result of the day: There is an 11% gap between Gallup's (+11) and Rasumussen's (+0) Presidential approval rating tracking polls for today.
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
OH: +1.8 +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
VA: -1.0 +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
FL: -2.5 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
IA: +2.0 +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
WI: +2.7 +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0 -
MI: +5.3 +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
PA: +4.6 +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
NH: +0.1 -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
NC: -4.0 -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3 -0.4
CO: -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
NV: +2.8 +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
At this point we could well be down to OH, VA, IA, NH and CO as having a significant uncertainty in the outcome, although the early voting data suggests that FL and NC might be closer than they appear here.